Oscar 2011: The Year Without a Frontrunner
By Tom Houseman
December 6, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Last year is a great example of the pitfalls of being a frontrunner in the Oscar race. During the 2009-10 race, there were two early favorites for Best Picture, and neither of them won the award. Up in the Air was considered a film that truly captured the zeitgeist of the recession, was from an up-and-coming young director, and starred one of the most beloved Hollywood stars of this generation. So what happened? Two explanations have been offered: the first is that it peaked too early. There wasn't much to say about Up in the Air, and after the buzz died down people sort of forgot about it. The second explanation is that it was just too much of a downer, but it seems more likely that its frontrunner status bled it dry before the season even really began.
The other frontrunner from last year was Avatar - the biggest blockbuster of all time, directed by a behemoth in his field, the man who had made the previous biggest film of all time. It was also a revolutionary piece of technology that told a classic story in a (sort of) new way. But then the backlash started: would actors vote for a film that paved the way for a future in which there are no more actors? Would the terrible screenplay get voters to reconsider voting for this film? Was James Cameron just too much of a pompous jackass to deserve being awarded again? So of the two frontrunners, one went home empty handed on Oscar night, and the other picked up a trio of technical awards. The film that ended up winning was a small war film that also seemed to capture the national zeitgeist, although it was about our relationship with Iraq. It built momentum throughout December and January, going from a film most people thought would just be happy to be nominated to being the clear favorite, and ended up winning six Oscars, including a historical Best Director win for Katherine Bigelow.
Looking back since 2003, the year after A Beautiful Mind rolled to an Oscar, it has become a rare thing for the pre-race favorite to perform well. Instead, it has been films that have either slowly built support or charged in from nowhere that have won big. Let's look:
2003:
Pre-race Favorite- Gangs of New York
Winner- Chicago
2004:
Pre-race Favorite (and winner)- The Return of the King
2005:
Pre-race Favorite- Aviator
Winner- Million Dollar Baby
2006:
Pre-race Favorites- Brokeback Mountain and Munich
Winner- Crash
2007:
Pre-race Favorite- This one is complicated. Before the race really got going, the early favorites were Dreamgirls and Babel. Once both of those faded to the back of the pack (Dreamgirls fell off completely when it failed to get a nomination) people thought Letters from Iwo Jima was going to storm in and take over the race.
Winner- The Departed
2008:
Pre-race Favorite- That year there wasn't really one, but you could point to Atonement, Sweeney Todd, and Charlie Wilson's War as favorites at various points before the race kicked into gear.
Winner- No Country for Old Men
2009:
Pre-race Favorites- Frost/Nixon and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
One trend you might notice is that the prerace favorites tend to be the more typical “Oscar Bait” films; they were clearly made with the assumption that they would be serious awards contenders. They are the biopics, the period pieces, made by respected directors like Martin Scorsese, Ron Howard, Steven Spielberg and Martin Scorsese (notice that Scorsese finally got his Oscar when he stopped making projects that pandered to the interests of Oscar voters). Clearly something changed between 2001, when typical Oscar fare like The English Patient, Titanic, Shakespeare in Love, Gladiator, and A Beautiful Mind, cleaned up at the awards, and 2002, when the darker, more cynical films began being rewarded.
But as much as I love talking about the effects of September 11, 2001 on the film industry, this is not the place for that discussion. We are talking about frontrunners. So the question is, what film is the unquestioned leader of the pack heading into the 2011 Oscars? Who is going to pick up that mantle and declare to the world “I am the movie to beat at this years Oscars!”? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
For a number of reasons, there really isn't a frontrunner this year. There are a few films that people can point to and say, “This movie has a very good chance at winning Best Picture,” but nothing that can rise above the crowd and be declared the film to beat. Right now there are five films that, if they wanted it, could claim frontrunner status, but just as strong an argument can be made against each of these films winning as for it. Let's go through the pros and cons of each of them:
The King's Speech
The Pro: Clear Oscar bait, this period piece biopic tells the story of King George, and his struggle to overcome his speech impediment, which makes him a fairly unimpressive leader in the face of the rise of the Nazi party. It certainly looks like typical Oscar fare, and it stars Oscar favorites Colin Firth (nominee for A Single Man), Helena Bonham Carter (nominee for The Wings of the Dove) and Geoffrey Rush (winner for Shine). It is inspiring and heartwarming and all of those other adjectives we like to throw at this kind of true story. Most people haven't seen it yet, so we don't know how well it will go over with audiences, but so far critics are raving about it.
The Con: Remember when I just pointed out how typical Oscar fare has been striking out for almost the last decade? The King's Speech might be seen as too old-fashioned for the Academy, which has seemed depressed for a while and has thus been awarding much darker films. Even the uplifting Slumdog Millionaire had a serious dark side. Will the King's Speech be thought of as shallow fluff in these dark and modern times? Certainly it will do well in the artistic awards, and Colin Firth is the favorite for Best Actor, but there is too much going against this film to consider it a favorite to win, although at this point a nomination is almost assured.
The Social Network
Pros: It's being called a film that defines a generation, which is probably a good sign. It is certainly a dark film, as this modern take on the rise to power narrative won't really make anyone feel good about anything. It has gotten raves from critics and has made almost $90 million at the box office. David Fincher is a well respected director, and Aaron Sorkin is one of the most beloved and high-profile screenwriters in the world. The young cast features mostly unknowns, but Jesse Eisenberg has been a rising star since The Squid and the Whale and this is clearly a career defining role.
Cons: It might define a generation, but which generation? Certainly not the Academy's, which is comprised of mostly older white men. That's the audience you need to connect with to win an Oscar, and the big question is whether or not The Social Network will be able to move them the way it has moved younger viewers. The other big issue with this film is Jesse Eisenberg's Mark Zuckerberg. Is he too unlikable a main character for a Best Picture winner? He is certainly a wildly unsympathetic protagonist, the kind of which was not found in other dark Best Picture winners; The Departed, No Country for Old Men and Crash all had characters who you really cared about, and I think most people just wanted to smack Zuckerberg across the face. While a screenwriting Oscar is practically in the bag for The Social Network, a Best Picture win seems iffy.
Inception
Pro: Inception is certainly the fan's choice, and is riding a wave of support from critics as well as the undying love of fans. Typically well reviewed blockbusters are guaranteed nominations, as it's the Academy's way of proving that they're in touch with mainstream America. Christopher Nolan is a highly respected filmmaker, and the cast boasts numerous Oscar nominees and winners, including Leonardo Dicaprio, Marion Cotillard, Michael Caine, Ellen Page, and Ken Watanabe.
Con: The problem is that the big blockbusters almost never win the award. Remember, only one sci-fi/fantasy film has ever won Best Picture, and that was an extremely extenuating circumstance. Inception is a beloved and successful film, but it is certainly no Return of the King. When even Avatar can't take home the big prize, you know that these types of films have to really be something special to do anything more than secure a nomination. Technical awards seem like a good bet for this summer hit, but you can't claim that Inception is a favorite for a Best Picture Oscar.
127 Hours
Pros: Danny Boyle is still riding a wave of support from Slumdog Millionaire, and his latest effort is getting reviews almost as good (91% vs. Slumdog's 94% on Rotten Tomatoes). Mostly, the raves have focused on star James Franco, who has emerged as Colin Firth's biggest challenger for Best Actor this year. But this film is getting a lot of love overall, and is, like Slumdog, an inspirational story with a lot of grit in it. It's based on a true story, but isn't a period piece, which could strike a nice balance with both the older and younger members of the Academy.
Cons: There are a number of questions surrounding this film: is it too small a story in scope for the full ranks of the Academy to embrace? Is it too similar to Sean Penn's Into the Wild, which failed to garner much Academy support? It certainly seems like if you can't connect with the protagonist, this whole movie is going to be lost on you. There's no love story, no real topical relevance, and no big action scenes. The question marks are what is holding back this film right now.
True Grit
Pros The Coen Brothers remaking a classic Western (technically readapting a novel) with Academy-friendly stars Jeff Bridges, Matt Damon and Josh Brolin? How can this go wrong? It's sure to get a ton of critical support and should do very well with audiences. John Wayne won an Oscar for the first True Grit, and Bridges, still glowing from his first Oscar for Crazy Heart, is generating a lot of buzz for this film. The story of revenge and overcoming adversity will doubtless strike a chord with voters. This could be a very big hit and a very big winner.
Cons: Notice how every single sentence in the above paragraph is making assumptions about what is going to happen? That's not an accident. The Coens' latest is the big unknown in this year's Oscar race, waiting until the very last second to break into the field. Typically when a studio does this it means they know they have something good, and films that have utilized this strategy generally do get nominated. But since Million Dollar Baby perfected the late release, it hasn't worked so well. Munich and Letters from Iwo Jima scored nominations based almost solely on the respect the Academy has for the directors (are the Coens at the same level as Spielberg and Eastwood? Not quite.) but neither were serious contenders for the Oscar. Until we see how this film is received we really can't call it a favorite for anything, although it is extremely likely that it will get a nomination.
So those are the five films that, for a multitude of reasons, are serious contenders to win Best Picture, but cannot be called the favorites. Since we live in a world in which ten films get nominated, we can say with all but the utmost certainty that when the nominations are announced, these films will be mentioned as Best Picture nominees. There are other contenders for spots in the final ten that don't have legitimate shots at the big prize, and are mostly there as fillers. In addition to the above five, I see the category being rounded out by Black Swan, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, The Town, and Toy Story 3. Obviously there will be some spoilers, and films like Winter's Bone, Secretariat, Shutter Island, How to Train Your Dragon, Waiting for “Superman,” and The Way Back are really hoping that they can sneak in with a nomination without any serious hopes of taking home the big prize.
But the big five are the ones that people will be talking about when they talk about winners, rather than nominees, and while many people are pointing at one or the other as the film most likely to win, no consensus is building around one in particular. Of course, this could change when the precursors start getting announced, but it might not. I wouldn't be surprised if The King's Speech won the Drama Golden Globe, The Social Network won the SAG Ensemble Award, Inception won the PGA Best Picture, and 127 Hours or even Black Swan won the Director's Guild Award. Then we'd be waiting until the Oscars to have any idea what's going on.
One thing we know is that the winners over the last several years have been the films that have slowly built momentum and peaked shortly before the voting ended. Will one of these five peak too early? The Social Network might, as could The King's Speech, if its wide release paints it as the favorite. Of course, any one of these could dominate the precursors and roll to victory on Oscar night, taking all of the suspense out of the race. As always, only time will tell.