Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
December 14, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Tourist opened to $17 million. Why did a film starring Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp open to less than, say, Easy A?
Josh Spiegel: I feel like this movie proves that star power is pointless. Couldn't it be argued that Jolie and Depp are the most famous actors - or among the most famous - in the entire world? Johnny Depp's career has managed to stay afloat even with the non-Pirates films he's done, and his presence may well have helped Alice in Wonderland push a billion dollars worldwide. But this movie looked like a relic from the mid-1990s. Would I like to see this one day? Yeah, maybe, on Netflix. I don't need to see it now. I'm particularly disappointed that the film has such weak reviews, considering it's from the helmer of The Lives of Others, a great German thriller. Hopefully, everyone just rebounds from this and remembers that star power is worthless now.
Edwin Davies: Considering that there has been a glut of quality films for adults released recently, a lot of people might have been unwilling to part with their cash in order to see a film which looks so average. I've seen the trailer for this film quite a few times over the last year and it always just seemed a little...off. The performances seemed stilted and sleepy, the action didn't look that exciting, and the plot didn't look compelling. It seems that a lot of people felt the same way that I did and decided to go and see something else.
Reagen Sulewski: I don't think it proves that star power is pointless - but it definitely proves that older audiences still listen to reviews. The Tourist had as bad a set of reviews as a major thriller has had in some time and didn't have huge action set pieces to fall back on for a draw. Without Jolie and Depp this movie never makes it to 2,700 venues.
Matthew Huntley: A couple weeks ago, The Hollywood Reporter mentioned The Tourist was only tracking at about a $20 million opening, but it's clear even that figure was overestimated. I think the problem, other than the potential quality of the film, was the nebulous marketing. I never had a clear sense of what this movie was about - not from the trailers, the TV spots, the posters, nothing. More importantly, though, I didn't care, and that's when a film's fate is sealed. I'm not saying I want the advertising to tell me everything (I like when it doesn't), but audiences need some sort of intrigue, which The Tourist did not provide. Plus, the title is generic and bland, which didn't help.
I agree with Reagen that star power still plays a role in marketing a movie. Imagine how low the opening would have been with no-name actors attached (although the budget would have been less).
Shalimar Sahota: Although I was aware of the film early on, I felt that the marketing didn't really get into full gear till the last minute. It may just be where I am, but the few people I talked to about it weren't even aware that this film existed. The poster relies on just putting the faces of the two leads out there, and doesn't explain a lot. The trailer suggested good fun, and nothing more. Josh may describe it as "a relic from the mid-1990s," but for me, I wouldn't mind taking such a nostalgia trip, provided it was good enough.
Jim Van Nest: How big of a draw IS Johnny Depp...really? Jack Sparrow is a HUGE draw. Johnny Depp in a Tim Burton film...also pretty big. But when Depp steps outside of that comfort zone, this is pretty much where he lands. People don't want to see him in a thriller, they want to see him in a fantasy. All the Johnny Depp fans will wait for Jack Sparrow to come back before they care again. The surprise here, for me anyway, is that Angie didn't bring in a few more dollars.
Michael Lynderey: I feel it's because we've seen this premise just so many times already this year - The Bounty Hunter, Killers, and Knight and Day come to mind. Hapless know-nothing meets well-trained professional action star, and both are then subjected to rounds of gunfire, none of which ever hit their mark. It's important to remember that a $17 million opening in December is unlike a $17 million opening at any other time of year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this movie hit as much as $80 million by the time the Golden Globes roll around. Does that live up to Depp's and Jolie's recent films? No, but considering the familiarity and some of the critical reception, I think it's strong.
Ballet is more exciting than you realize.
Kim Hollis: Black Swan, the girls-kissing-girlsiest film of the 2010 Oscars contenders, finished in sixth place with $3.3 million in only 90 venues. That's a scintillating per location average of $36,726. How impressed are you by this result? Do you see the film as a legitimate threat for Best Picture or more of a star piece, like The Wrestler?
Brett Beach: I am very impressed with this, especially as it is a second weekend. Fox Searchlight is handling this rollout perfectly, much as they did the infinitely more accessible and likable Juno. They have a film with a) good reviews; b) Oscar buzz thanks to a towering performance; c) a mysterious/mindfuck storyline with ambiguity (but not too too much) to play up in the ads d) a solid look inside the life of a professional ballet dancer for those with interest in that and yes e) one hot girl going down on another hot girl for several minutes as the hook for those who are on the fence about "ballet thrillers." From what I gather they will be fairly wide in two weeks, which seems like just the right amount of time considering how the must-see factor continues to build at the moment. Having seen it, I would say it will not and should not compete for Best Picture/director/screenplay. It is a star piece, first and foremost, but nominations for sound design, makeup, and editing would not be undeserved. The ballsiest thing about it is Portman's refusal to make her character all that likable. In the parlance of the film, she nails the part of the white swan so well, you wonder if she also has the black swan in her. She does.
Josh Spiegel: The number is very impressive, and it stands next to a few other indie films that have come out this fall to truly phenomenal small openings, including The King's Speech and The Fighter. I think what makes this movie do so well (especially against the stigma of people thinking it's - snore - a ballet movie) is the Natalie Portman factor, along with Darren Aronofsky's name. And, sure, the lesbian scene helps bring in the young men, I'm sure. Having also seen the film, I agree that the most immediately notable element is Portman's performance - she is truly excellent and should be the automatic frontrunner now - but I hope Aronofsky and the film are acknowledged as well. I didn't have many issues with the screenplay, but Aronofsky does such a great job of bringing the story to life, with such striking visuals (the cinematography, in particular, deserves a nomination) and great all-around performances.
Edwin Davies: I am very impressed that it has done this well so early in its run. Going on the buzz the film generated as it played at film festivals over the course of the year, I expected it be a strong performer when it finally saw a release, but to hit the Top Ten from such a small venue count is astonishing.
I haven't seen the film yet, but based on what I've read and heard from people who have seen it, I think that the film is certain to land a Best Actress nomination and will probably get a Best Picture nomination, too, especially with ten spaces to fill. I don't think it will win, though, because if people are talking about The Social Network being too out there to win Best Picture, then Black Swan has got to be floating out near Alpha Centauri in comparison. I imagine that Darren Aronofsky will probably get a Best Director nod as well since the Academy like his films but he has yet to receive a nomination himself, but again he probably won't win because that particular race is going to be very, very tough.
Reagen Sulewski: This is pretty spectacular considering that this is probably the most challenging of the limited release films out there in terms of theme and subject. A lesbian ballerina that turns into an actual swan? It'll never play in Peoria, Darren. But it's almost double what 127 Hours earned in any single weekend despite being in four times the theaters. While I doubt that it'll actually win, I would say that something shocking would have to happen for it to not be one of the ten nominees.
Matthew Huntley: I'm not so much impressed as I am pleased. Black Swan is a spellbinding film and I'm glad word-of-mouth is carrying it to near-record heights before it officially goes "wide" (if it ever does). Josh made some excellent points about the film's qualities (I would also throw sound design and score into the mix, as these especially stood out for me) and I hope they contribute to the film's slew of nominations come awards season (Portman is already a lock). The film may be considered too "out there" for a Best Picture nomination, but if Hollywood has any sense, they'll award it one (if they can nominate The Blind Side, surely they can nominate Black Swan). In the end, though, I think it will be remembered and rewarded as a character piece. Awards or no awards, though, the film should be seen, and I'm glad general audiences (the ones in the 90 theaters across the country) are giving it a chance.
Shalimar Sahota: I love it when a small indie film breaks out, and so I consider the result for Black Swan to be absolutely phenomenal! Given that it's only out at 90 venues, I'd say we're looking at a rare occurrence where people are trying to find somewhere actually showing the film, and going out of their way to see it, and it's paid off in a big way! The film is set for wide release on December 22nd, and it would be great to see it stick around in the top ten. Oscar-wise, I think it'll be one of those films that picks up a clutch of nominations (given the buzz, likely Best Picture and Best Actress), only to leave empty handed.
Michael Lynderey: As a star piece, it doesn't have a compelling off-screen storyline like The Wrestler did (no fallen star comebacks here). As a Best Picture nominee, it's certainly a bridesmaid, but it sure won't be getting married anytime soon. What I think we have here is a solid domestic grosser ($50 million, methinks), and what should be a guaranteed nomination if not a win for Natalie Portman - and indeed, it'll be the start of what's looking like Portman's best movie year yet. Good for all involved.