Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
January 10, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Season of the Witch, the latest in a long line of ill-reviewed Nic Cage films, opened to $10.6 million. Given the film's $40 million budget, should Relativity be pleased with this result?
Josh Spiegel: Is there any way to be pleased about a Nicolas Cage movie being released in January and making $10 million? Obviously, there are over a million people who dropped money into the metaphorical trash can to watch this movie, but this movie had no chance of becoming a big hit, and I imagine Relativity Media was aware of that, having pushed it back already.
Matthew Huntley: I would say it depends on whether Relativity has international rights to the movie. If they do, and if they can pick up decent numbers from overseas markets (which, given the premise, are more likely to respond to this movie than the U.S.), I'd say someone's job can be spared. If not, then it's going to be an uphill battle before the movie shows a profit, if ever, in which case Relativity's role as a distributor remains questionable.
Kim Hollis: Matthew, they sold off international rights, so I guess it depends how much they got in that deal. It might mitigate their losses or if it does well overseas, I suppose they'll regret it.
Bruce Hall: They say that every day above ground is a good day, but the people who say that were clearly not Hollywood executives. What we have here is an action film starring two B-list stars opening in January 2011 to third place behind a Western and a worn out franchise about a bunch of people whose name sounds like what I called the guy who almost backed into me at the grocery store this morning. How would you feel? I guess the upside here is that with with such a relatively modest budget and despite the fact that the release date was pushed out almost a year, Season of the Witch might still luck out and earn back a fair portion of its budget internationally, keeping in mind the caveat Matthew pointed out.
But overall I believe this to be a forgettable result for a forgettable movie from an increasingly forgettable Nic Cage. Ron Perlman can at least lay claim to being Hellboy and Clay Morrow - and his career is on its second wind anyway. Cage has been one of Hollywood's most consistently marketable stars for decades but continues to alienate his fans with puzzling choices and uninspired performances. Is he just trying to pay off his considerable debt? Did he lose a bet? Does he hate us? I don't know, but sooner or later people are going to stop caring about a man who was once one of the industry's most intriguing and unique talents. And that's a shame.
Jim Van Nest: That ANYone went and saw this film should make Relativity pleased with the result. It's like they wanted to take Cage's Sorcerer character and put him in a crappy looking almost horror flick. Who would want to see that? I'm one of the very few that hasn't jumped off the Nic Cage bandwagon, but even I wouldn't waste my time or money on this one. $10 million HAS to be better than what they expected, so if I'm Relativity, I call it "not a complete disaster" and move on.
Michael Lynderey: I think it's pretty good. This one's a film that has been pushed back once or twice, and if the studio didn't have much confidence in it, ten million may or may not sound that bad to them. I do reject the classification of Nicolas Cage and Ron Perlman as "B-list stars". While I respect Perlman as an actor, surely Cage and Perlman are not on the same landscape in terms of box office history and drawing power? In general, I don't get the Nicolas Cage hate around these parts. Just because he's made a bad movie or two? There's nothing wrong with that. Many people have produced whole careers out of doing exactly that.
Reagen Sulewski: The low budget probably ensures a profit for this film, but what price your soul, you know? I think they knew what they were getting, burying this film on the first weekend of the year, so they're probably OK with the return. On the other hand, I don't see how anyone can walk away from this film thinking "you know, this is the one they'll remember me for. This is my legacy."
David Mumpower: Nic Cage is a witch! BURN HIM!
This looked like hot garbage, which makes me view a $10.6 million debut as a best case scenario result. The problem is that the legs for this film will be non-existent. It has opened lower than the apt comparison, 2006's The Wicker Man, while having the same budget. And we all know what the overriding opinion of that film is...
The line begins here.
Kim Hollis: Say whatever you want about Nic Cage and his recent career decisions. He deserves it.
Josh Spiegel: Memo to Nicolas Cage: Buying a mansion is not a good idea. Buying more than one mansion is even less of a good idea. Also, stop trying to be an action hero at the expense of being respected by anyone aside from schlock fans.
Matthew Huntley: Hey Nic, in real life, I think you're probably a little coo-coo, so use that to your advantage, will ya? Let's have more Matchstick Mens and Weather Mans and less movies about adventurers with bad haircuts and cheesy dialogue. Your box-office numbers might not go up, but our veneration for you will.
Bruce Hall: Unless I'm thinking of someone else, at one time Cage was one of the most well regarded stars in film. Maybe that's why he went hog wild with his bank book. Maybe that's why these days he'll seemingly jump on board any project with a decent paycheck and an ample catering budget. I don't understand it but the longer this downward slide continues the more irrelevant he risks becoming as a serious actor and the harder he may find it to land credible roles. He has a famously devoted fan base but even rats on a sinking ship would rather try swimming from New York to London than take their chances below deck. It's too bad because despite his unorthodox style, at his best Nic Cage is one of the best in the business. But once you've truly become a joke it's awfully hard to go back.
Edwin Davies: It seems that the first half of Nicolas Cage's career was written by Charlie Kaufman, but the second half has been written by Donald Kaufman. Hopefully the artful, intelligent side of him will one day reassert itself and leave the pandering hack side behind. It's looking increasingly less likely, though.
Jim Van Nest: I agree that Cage should take the advice of all of my cohorts here, but before you do, Nic...could you do one more National Treasure? My kids would REALLY appreciate it. Thanks buddy!
Michael Lynderey: I think he should combine his love (?) for making B-movies with the top writers and directors who know how to make good ones. The Rock and Con Air, two of my favorites, come immediately to mind. And of course, I was also a big fan of Knowing. So, really, I don't have anything against the man, and I look forward to Drive Angry.
Kim Hollis: Despite the way I phrased the question, I've actually come to enjoy and like bad movie Nic Cage. I harbor no illusions that he's doing anything to raise these movies to another level (and I don't think he does either), but there's something that entertains the hell out of me to see him chew scenery. I think it was Bad Lieutenant (not a bad movie, but certainly an odd one) that put him over the top for me.
Reagen Sulewski: Making all these crappy movies won't bring back your goddamned honey!
David Mumpower: Cage represents everything that is wrong with the Hollywood star system. Here are some of the clunkers on his resume in the 2000s: Windtalkers (financial disaster that ruined John Woo's career), Gone in Sixty Seconds (made money in spite of its quality), Matchstick Men, Weather Man, Lord of War, The Wicker Man, Ghost Rider, Next, Bangkok Dangerous, Knowing, The Sorcerer's Apprentice and now Season of the Witch. You will find people who defend some of these projects. I quite like Next, as an example. If you ask the average person who has seen all of those movies if they like at least half of them, the answer will be a firm NO! A lot of the reason for that is Cage's willingness to sleep walk through roles in exchange for financial compensation. We have so many starving actors out there waiting for their Hurt Locker while we simultaneously have this guy clogging up the system with his unwillingness to turn anything down. John Travolta and Bruce Willis both exhibited this trait as well. I would maintain that the only interesting acting choice he's made in the past five years is The Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call - New Orleans. He gives off the vibe, particularly lately, that he's stopped caring about his chosen vocation. He's still taking the money, though. He's a real life Krusty the Clown.
Country Strong sounds like the tagline for a rugged truck
Kim Hollis: Country Strong earned $7.3 million in 1,422 locations this weekend. What do you think of this result?
Josh Spiegel: Considering how purely unbelievable it is to me that Gwyneth Paltrow could ever be seen as a country music star, I guess this number's not too bad, but when you consider how well some of the Oscar bait from 2010 is performing (Black Swan only dropping 6 percent and True Grit being number one this weekend) while Country Strong - which was thought of as an outside shot for Best Actress a while ago - makes a mediocre figure, it's nothing to write home about.
Matthew Huntley: I'd say it's pretty "strong" (no pun intended) given the movie's low $12.5 million budget. I know a lot of critics didn't like this movie, but I did, and so far everyone I've talked to only has good (but not great) things to say about it. I think word-of-mouth will be decent, and perhaps good enough to put the movie around $25 million in total, which isn't bad. Josh is right that the figures are nothing to write home about, but they're far from disastrous. Call it a mid-level opening.
Follow-up question: Does anyone think this movie will take home the Oscar for Best Song by default? What other ones stood out from last year?
Bruce Hall: To say that I am anything but a country fan would be an understatement. But I have to agree that given its budget and the limited appeal of the material, this is an acceptable result. I don't know if it will live up to the preliminary Oscar buzz but Gwyneth Paltrow is tremendously gifted and adorable - and in case you haven't noticed this makes not one but two Garrett Hedlund vehicles in the top ten.
So clearly, anything is possible.
Edwin Davies: To me, this film is to Crazy Heart what Secretariat was to The Blind Side; both are pretty blatant attempts to replicate the success of other films, but neither will actually manage to do so. Still, like Secretariat, Country Strong will probably make its money back and be a minor hit, but not to the same extent. Also, the lack of any kind of critical support for the film suggests that Gwynnie isn't going to be picking up Oscar number two on February 27th.
Matthew, I think that Tangled has more than its fair share of great songs, so Country Strong will have a fight on its hands for the Best Song Oscar.
Michael Lynderey: It would seem to me that Country Strong was originally intended as a leggy Oscar-driven drama (though I could be wrong). If that's the level, then it has not succeeded. If the movie was just meant to see how strong the country music base is at the mainstream box office, then it probably isn't all that impressive either ($20 million total seems right). All-in-all, it's going to end up seen as a middle of the road (no pun) vehicle for its stars, and on that note, I'd like to point out how much better this would have worked had Nicolas Cage been cast in the Tim McGraw role. I mean, c'mon.
Michael Lynderey: By the way, is it just me or is Black Swan making one hundred million dollars? I mean, jezzz!
Reagen Sulewski: The Oscar talk for this film always struck me as a lot of wishful thinking. Sure you have Paltrow, and anything can happen at Oscar time (see: Mark Wahlberg, Oscar nominee), but it never for a second looked like the depth was there, nor the mass appeal that might have forced voters hands. The generic title doesn't help matters much either, and really only sold to the already convinced. Opening in 1,400 theaters was their last concession to this. Still, good job on realizing their limitations and not overextending themselves.
David Mumpower: This movie always struck me as Country Duets and given what a disastrous project that was, it was difficult for me to envision Country Strong succeeding. I agree with Mr. Huntley that relative to budget, this has to be considered a small scale triumph. It will also be a safe family film choice on home video, making this project an unexpected winner.