Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
June 6, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Brett Beach: The result is fair to slightly better than expected. In my mind this doesn't qualify as a reboot, if only because the X-Men brand name - as I see it - wasn't damaged to the extent that Joel Schumacher and Akiva Goldsman managed to inflict upon the public with Batman & Robin. (Last Stand was underwhelming but not terrible and Wolverine was simply an emotional downer with a ridiculous amount of violence and action leading to the only possible pre-ordained ending it could.)
It does seem to be partially a matter of economics - get in a cast of relatively inexpensive performers to help keep the cost under $200 million this time around and go back to a beginning while figuring out how to push the series forward in the future with the characters from the first trilogy. (I have read interviews with Fox execs that they are committed to this trilogy and new sequels for the first trilogy and maybe more standalone movies, and…it makes my head swim). I am glad for the mostly positive reviews, but I still can't past the horrible punning in the title even if it is the name of the comic series. Plus, while it may be bold to set the action in the midst of recorded history, it also seems cheesy on some level to me. I think this will perform just as POTC:OST is and wind up the lowest grossing domestically of the five X-Men films, but perform solidly overseas.
Bruce Hall: I think it is a good enough result. Most of the talk today is focused on the dollar result and that's undeniably important. But $55 million is about in line with studio projections, and I think this is a rather rare moment of prescience on the part of 20th Century Fox. For all the talk of genre fatigue (and I feel it too), the superhero flick isn't going to go away for a little while. So while profitability is the goal, what's equally important is that this is the best reviewed X-Men film since 2003's X2. X-Men has been a perennial cash cow and although there's no sense in killing it off now, one more awful film and this franchise might have died all by itself. It's not a blockbuster result but the long view is that the X-Men still have a few good years left.
Tom Houseman: Brett, I think you're letting your own opinions cloud your perception. I loved The Last Stand, but that doesn't change the fact that it was reviled by the public. Wolverine was even more hated, and justifiably, as it was an awful movie in every respect. The X-Men brand definitely took a major hit from those two movies.
I am surprised that this movie didn't do better, but I probably shouldn't have been, considering the only name in the cast is Mr. Tumnus (are people not as excited about the guy from Fish Tank as I am?). There was a lot of anticipation for this movie among fans, but I think it had to overcome a lot of the negativity towards the last two films in the series.
The number is higher than Batman Begins' $48.7 million opening, and that movie more than quadrupled its opening weekend because it had great word-of-mouth. I think something similar will happen here. My sister has already seen First Class twice and is gushing about it. I think this movie will have very impressive legs, especially if Super 8 underperforms. I wouldn't be surprised by a $250 million total domestically.
Reagen Sulewski: Saying that this is a "good enough" result is buying into studio spin. Unless word-of-mouth gives it a dramatic turnaround, this is a film that will struggle to break $150 million domestically. And while international box office should be good and will in large part tell the story of whether it's a profitable film or not, there really shouldn't be a question about it at this point. Forget what's come before: when you're putting up $200 million in a budget for a film, you should not be walking back expectations the day before its opening weekend. Ten years later, they're essentially starting over with the franchise. By all accounts they've made a very good film (and I suspect the Batman comparison is very relevant), but it just goes to show how much damage a mismanaged franchise can cause. It also shows what the cost of junking basically every character in a film does - for the casual fan, after being asked to connect with a group of actors over four films, even if two of them were bad, it doesn't come easy to embrace new ones.
You know who's sweating bullets right now? Sony and everyone on the set of The Amazing Spider-Man. Studios are going to continue to try reboots as long as there's value in their properties, but there are no free lunches out there.
Shalimar Sahota: This comes across as okay to me. The Batman Begins comparison is a good one. After audiences had to contend with two mediocre to average films, it's a bit hard for them to want to give First Class a chance. I'll admit that I actually had no intention of viewing the film myself, but it was the reviews that lured me in, so hopefully others will be pulled in by the word-of-mouth. As we've already seen with Thor, I also feel that the increased involvement of Marvel (Marvel Studios) has had an effect in the good reviews due to their determination in wanting to put a quality product out there.
Kim Hollis: I think "just okay" is exactly the right answer, Shalimar. Although I do think Fox should be encouraged by the positive reviews and word-of-mouth First Class is receiving, this franchise has been hugely damaged by the poor quality of Last Stand and Wolverine. The difference between this and the Batman franchise is that people had eight years to miss Batman and let the negative stigma left by Batman and Robin fade into the distance. It's only been two years since Wolverine, so while I'm sure there will be some people who go to see the new X-Men who might not have before the good reviews (and I'm one of them), it's not going to be the same level as Batman Begins.
Edwin Davies: I can't help but feel underwhelmed by this result, and I'd be surprised if the studio were truly happy with what the film has done so far. I personally find the Batman Begins comparison a little hollow since X-Men: First Class does not look or feel like the startling break from what went before that Begins did. Aside from the way in which the advertising used scenes from the previous films, thereby creating some confusion as to whether it was a reboot or a prequel, it has pretty much the same tone and style as those that preceded it. I don't think the casual audience that made the first four films hits (to one degree or another) were sold on the idea that this was a brand new vision of the franchise, but left with the impression that it was just a continuation. Hopefully the reviews will bolster its chances, because it is the best entry since X2, but I can't help but think that the marketing failed to let people know just what kind of film they were getting.
David Mumpower: I agree and disagree with Tom. I believe he's correct to say that the previous two X-Men films are disliked, but I disagree with his assertion that First Class can earn $250 million domestically. I consider Reagen's $150 million projection much more in line with expectations here. I understand the philosophy that the quality of the film could carry it to greater heights; however, I agree with Edwin that the Batman Begins comparison is a bit overstated. Nobody is raving about the X-Men prequel the same way they did with the Christopher Nolan Batman reboot. First Class is well regarded, but we shouldn't get carried away about its perception. I'm not sure it's any more popular than Thor, which has earned about $105 million after opening weekend.
Circling back to the initial question, a movie with a $160 million production cost that is looking at box office of about $160 million domestically isn't anything to get excited about. Given the expansion of international revenue over the past two years, it's entirely possible that the title falls in the same $375-$460 million range as the previous three X-Men titles. Based on what we have seen thus far, I don't see this as anything resembling a win for Fox, though.
Kim Hollis: X-Men: First Class has already made $120 million globally. Do you think that's enough to justify a quick sequel, or would Fox be better served to try a Magneto origins film? Or do you think they'll do something else entirely?
Bruce Hall: After the debacle that was Wolverine, I won't be surprised if this "Origins" idea quietly dies on the vine. At least, I hope it does. Then again, Michael Fassbender really was one of the best things about First Class, and I can't say I wouldn't be intrigued to see a film centering around his character's next move after the Cuban Missile Crisis. Maybe Magneto started the Vietnam War? The possibilities are, for better or worse, endless.
Reagen Sulewski: Admittedly not having seen First Class yet, but doesn't this do the job of any Origins film you could hope to make? Wouldn't you be re-retreading ground? I feel like audiences are kind of bored with origin stories anyway - just get us into the action.
Shalimar Sahota: Totally agree with Reagen. You may not have seen the film yet, and of course there is more one can delve into, but First Class does do an adequate job of telling an Origins story. Writers Ashley Miller and Zack Stentz have admitted that some pieces of Sheldon Turner's Magneto script did find its way into First Class. So long as it's not a "quick" cash-grab sequel, the next logical step is to get to work on Second Class (which would be a really bad title and I hope they DO NOT use it).
Edwin Davies: I think they'd be best off doing a direct sequel to First Class that following the escalation of Magneto's rivalry with Xavier and the growing ranks of their various armies, with humanity stuck in the middle. X-Men: First Class, whilst kind of superficial and a little over-eager to introduce so many characters so quickly, does a great job of putting the pieces in place for subsequent films in the proposed trilogy. The model really should be Bryan Singer's first two X-Men films; the first one establishes the world, the second one gives them more opportunity to play around in it. They need to build on the goodwill that should be generated by this film since they've already asked audiences to have faith in them by rebooting the franchise and starting anew, it would be too much to expect them to follow them if they pursued completely separate directions.
David Mumpower: I agree that the ideas from Magneto were grafted into what became X-Men: First Class. What the X-Men franchise needs is new conflict. Magneto and the government are well past the expiration date. That comic book has like seventeen decent villains. It's time to introduce one of them in a much bigger spectacle. I understand why X-Men: The Last Stand may have soured Fox on the idea of an all-action outing, but the reality is that they are spending $160 million anyway. They may as well make something that feels epic in scale. That's the misstep with First Class. Casual X-Men fans were not impressed by the mediocre effects on display in the trailer.
Kim Hollis: I feel like a Magneto origins story would be a mistake, particularly as I don't believe fans are that interested in seeing a biography of that character alone. In fact, I would go so far as to say that Wolverine is really the only one with that kind of universal appeal. They need to keep their films as ensembles, and adding action to the mix surely wouldn't hurt if done well. I would be very, very cautious about further damaging the brand. What Marvel and Fox have done with X-Men: First Class is to go a little way toward building back goodwill toward the franchise. Rushing a sequel out would be ill-advised and probably less than satisfactory, to boot. There is no reason for a cash grab at this point.