Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
July 12, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The real story of the week is the impending release of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2, the eighth and final film in the franchise. Let's warm up for the week with a couple of topics. Did you read the Harry Potter books before seeing the movies? Did you watch the Potter films immediately upon release or did you wait until home video/ABC Family marathon? Which Potter character is your favorite? Which movie subplot would you have rather done without? Do you believe Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 can get the opening weekend record?
Edwin Davies: I was 13 when I started reading the Harry Potter books (it was just after the novel of Prisoner of Azkaban was released) so I was a pretty rabid fan of the books by the time that the films started rolling out. I read each new book on the day of release - which was something of an achievement once you get to the later ones - and saw all the films on opening weekend, with the notable exception of Order of the Phoenix, which I skipped seeing in theaters because I disliked the film version of Goblet of Fire so much that it put me off seeing the next one. When I watched it on DVD, I loved it, so I went back to my tradition of catching them opening weekend.
I love the books, partly because the story is so strong, but also because they were one of the key touchstones for turning me into the voracious reader that I am now. The film series I view somewhat differently, because my love of film grew around them, rather than because of them, but the main thing that I love about them is that they still fill me with a sense of wonder. I may view Deathly Hallows Part 2 in a very different way to how I viewed The Philosopher/Sorcerer's Stone because I'm older and think more critically about film, but there is still a sense of magic to them that hasn't disappeared over ten years and eight films (even Goblet of Fire, which is the worst of the series for me, still has moments of real awe in it), which I think is nothing short of miraculous. It doesn't have the scope and scale of Lord of the Rings, which is probably its closest contemporary since Philosopher/Sorcerer's Stone and Fellowship of the Ring were released within weeks of each other in the winter of 2001, but it means as much to me as Star Wars does to people who grew up in the '70s and '80s; it's cinematic escapism of the highest order.
Remus Lupin's my favourite character, and one of the joys of the film series has been seeing David Thewlis bring the character to life so well. I kind of hope that the final film does justice to him, because I always felt that the book of Deathly Hallows shortchanged him a bit. That may just be bias on my part, though; there were so many characters that needed to have their stories resolved that some of them were always going to be shunted to the sidelines, but I love that character so much that I want him to get a fair shake. I've also really dug what Alan Rickman has been doing as Snape, and I'm really excited to see how the film handles his story, which winds up being one of the more surprising and touching of the series.
I think that Deathly Hallows Part 2 has a shot at breaking the opening weekend record, but wouldn't call it a sure thing. The series has been remarkably consistent over the years, and whilst I have no doubt that a huge number of Potter fans will be out to see it opening weekend and it will probably have the highest opening of the series, I don't know how many people outside of the converted will want to jump in at this point. It may be a huge cultural moment, but if I wasn't already invested in the franchise, I don't know if I would go and see the eighth and final part of a series just because everyone is talking about it.
Bruce Hall: I may be the only person on Earth who attempted to read the first Potter book and said "Meh". I watched the first film and found it entertaining, but not unforgettable. I watched The Prisoner of Azbekmatron or whatever the hell it was called and was kind of just done with the whole thing. It's not because I lack Geek Cred. I still own Legos, possess several editions of the Star Trek technical manual and have read everything Tolkien ever wrote, including the Silmarillion (it's Ambien in book form!). I just couldn't care less about Harry Potter. There. I said it. Come at me, but remember - I wield a replica of Narsil and I know how to use it.
Shalimar Sahota: I have not read any of the books. After watching the first film, I decided to let them be my guide. All the Potter films I saw on the big screen with the exception of Half Blood Prince and Deathly Hallows Part 1. Goblet of Fire is the only one I viewed on its opening day.
I mainly want to focus on the opening weekend, since many will be questioning whether Deathly Hallows Part 2 will top The Dark Knight's record. I remember saying that I thought it would be close, mainly because of the 3D ticket increase, though being a conversion it was already reported that many have booked tickets for the 2D version (something audiences did with Warner Bros' Green Lantern). That Deathly Hallows Part 2 is opening in the summer would be a factor. Prisoner of Azkaban, Order of the Phoenix and Half Blood Prince also opened during the summer. While Prisoner of Azkaban opened with $93 million, the latter two both opened on the lower end of the franchise at $77 million, due to a Wednesday opening. Half Blood Prince also opened on July 15th two years ago. What amazed me the most about Deathly Hallows Part 1 was its opening day gross of $61 million, yet it unfortunately fizzled out on the Saturday and Sunday.
I do feel that the media frenzy about Deathly Hallows Part 2 being the final one will get people going off to see it (I am one of those people who intends to watch this on its opening weekend), but will likely behave similarly with a strong opening day rush that won't be sustained through the weekend. I'm thinking that Potter will attain the highest opening weekend of the franchise, and will probably fall somewhere between $130 - $140 million, leaving The Dark Knight to reign supreme.
Daron Aldridge: I am with Shalimar on the non-reading front. I haven’t even cracked open one of the books in the series but am now a huge fan of the films. I am glad that Edwin pointed out the timing of both the Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter series kicking off almost simultaneously. I was in the camp of LOTR all the way and viewed Potter as a kids’ movie (side note: I was several years removed from being classified as a "kid" in 2001). So, by the time I relented and began watching the Potter films, I saw Sorcerer’s Stone, Chamber of Secrets and Prisoner of Azkaban over the course of a single weekend. I loved them and was hooked, even from the comforts of my living room. Deathly Hallows: Part 2 will be the first one I will have seen in a theater but I have watched the others immediately upon DVD release. Edwin is spot-on, to me, this series is “cinematic escapism of the highest order.” After each film, I was anxious about what the next chapter was going to hold.
For the bulk of the series, I have been captivated by the character of Severus Snape, due primarily to the ability of the brilliant Alan Rickman to say so much with a sneer or a stare. I completely bought into Snape as the red herring in the Sorcerer’s Stone and with each film, my attention would gravitate to him whenever he would show up. The character seems to be the most dynamic because you aren't sure what he will do next.
There really isn’t a subplot that I could do without but I wish the Ron’s jealous streak of Harry would have been less recurring. It felt too convenient and almost sitcom-esque that they fight about the same thing and then make amends nearly every film. Also, I felt that I wanted more Sirius Black in the films and am curious if there were parts of the book with him that didn’t make it on screen.
The Dark Knight set an incredibly lofty goal and I think he will stay on the perch following this weekend’s final numbers. The consistency of the series is the reason why. I believe it is close to reaching critical mass. At $317 million, the first film is still is the highest grossing one in the series and is ten years old. I believe Part 2 will topple it finally because of people like me, who have never contributed to its box office but will this time. As it stands now, in order for Part 2 to best The Dark Knight's opening weekend, it would need to make more than half of what the highest grosser in the series made. That seems like a long shot to me. I will give it $135 for opening weekend and just shy of $400 million as a final gross. I'd be happy to be wrong about this and have Part 2 blow the roof off the box office.
Jim Van Nest: I read the first Potter book for one reason only. So that when I bashed people for reading it, I could answer them honestly and say, "Yeah, I read the first one and it sucked!" Instead, I loved it and devoured the other three books (Order of the Phoenix had not come out yet.) I have seen all of the films in the theater and read all of the books. I've balked at re-reading the book before the movie, because it will only remind me of story lines that get cut (Hermione's save the house elf organization, Nearly Headless Nick's death day celebration, Norbert the dragon, etc.)
I am, however, in the midst of a movie marathon to get ready for Deathly Hallows, Part 2. Just watched Order of the Phoenix last night. Oddly enough, it was my least favorite book, but one of my favorite movies. Although I have to say, they've really kicked the movies into gear since Order. They've just gotten better and better and I fully expect DH2 to be the best.
I have several favorite characters, for different reasons. I LOVE Bellatrix LeStrange, but it may just be Helena Bonham-Carter's portrayal of her that makes her so deliciously evil. Luna Lovegood was a favorite of mine in the books and they got the perfect actress to play her in the films. I also enjoy the boyish enthusiasm of Mr. Weasley as he discusses all things muggle. He's like a little kid in that way. But I think my favorite character in the entire series (both in book and film) is Severus Snape. He's easily the most complex character in the saga and Alan Rickman was a master-stroke of casting. Aside from Rickman, I'm fairly certain they could not have cast Professor McGonagall any better, Maggie Smith is marvelous throughout. So are the three leads, Tom Felton as Draco Malfoy, Robbie Coltrane as Hagrid, Gary Oldman as Sirius Black, Ralph Fiennes as Voldemort and the entire Weasley family.
While some of the early films don't hold up as well as the more recent, it's hard for me to really find too much fault in the adaptations. As long as they handle a couple important (to me, anyway) scenes right in the final film, I can't imagine having any bad feelings coming out of the theater Friday morning.
As far as opening records and the like, I really think this one has a chance. I heard a report the other day that over 2,000 showings are already sold out, and that's amazing. Looking at the series, the films seem to have maxed out their potential audience. Being the eighth in a series, I can't imagine there will be too many new people coming out to see this one that didn't see the rest. That being said, Deathly Hallows, Part 1 opened to $125 million in November. That's only $33 million shy of The Dark Knight AND DH1 didn't have the advantage of 3D pricing that DH2 has. So, if DH2 keeps the same audience as DH1, I'd wager the ticket upcharge for 3D will be enough to put it over the top. And if it's even close, I guarantee they'll find a way for it to crack $160 million for the weekend.
Edwin Davies: What do we all think about the announcement that the teaser for The Dark Knight Rises will be playing before Deathly Hallows Part Two this weekend? It's made me wonder if it could provide people who are on the fence about seeing it opening weekend to with the impetus to do so, since they will get a glimpse of next year's gargantuan blockbuster, in much the same way that people supposedly went to see The Siege with Denzel Washington in order to watch the teaser trailer for The Phantom Menace. I don't know if it will have a sizable effect, but I could easily see people who maybe were planning to see the film eventually deciding that they should see it early because there's this extra cool thing attached to it they would want to see sooner rather than later.
Jason Lee: I watched the first movie and then started reading the books. I was hooked by the middle of Chamber of Secrets. Rowling had so expertly weaved strands of details from the first book into the second that it almost felt like she was rewarding readers for having continued on this journey with her. And, of course, from the second book, things just kept getting better.
I am crazy looking forward to this movie, though I'll be sad when no more Potter movies, books or adventures remain to be enjoyed. My favorite book is definitely Deathly Hallows and my favorite movie is Goblet of Fire...so far. Ask me again at next week's MMQB.
Kim Hollis: I started reading the series after the third book seemed to stretch the books into high popularity amongst all age groups. It seemed like everyone was reading them - my friends, my mother, my acquaintances. And I suppose I should say that I was...30 at the time, so unlike some of my fellow commenters here, I was not necessarily in the target audience. With that all said, yes, I read all the books before they came out in movie form. I was one of those first-day purchasers who curled up with the book and shut out the world until I was finished.
I have seen every one of the films on opening weekend, and most of them on opening day. I actually have Friday off so that I can catch the final film pretty early in the day (not at midnight...I'm way too old for that). I've been watching most of the films at various moments over the past several days, and I still think they hold up remarkably well. I even think the first two films, which a lot of people criticize, are still a lot of fun.
My favorite character is Sirius Black. He's different from most characters you see in kids' books, and even if I wish I got to see more of him, the time he is given in the stories is maximized to fullest potential. I also have a strong affinity for Hermione and Luna Lovegood - Hermione because I relate to her and Luna because she's hippy dippy fun. I can't really think of a particular scene/moment in the stories that I wish weren't there, other than a thing that happens in Order of the Phoenix that I won't mention since it's a giant spoiler if you're hoping to catch up on the film/books at some point. And it's not because I think it's out of place, it's just because it broke my heart. I don't particularly like Umbridge in Order of the Phoenix, either, but I think she's fine as a character for kids rather than one for adults. Dobby is annoying as hell, but I find him less so today than I did at the time I was reading through his nonsense.
I think that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 can *approach* the record weekend of The Dark Knight. I'm not sure it's going to happen. I will say this, though: it sure would provide some nice symmetry if the first film kicked off the franchise by getting the opening weekend, then ten years later the finale recaptured that record.
As for the new The Dark Knight Rises trailer, yes, I'm excited about it. I'm not sure I really believe it's going to draw in extra fans, but it's certainly a nice extra benefit.
David Mumpower: When I was visiting a couple of other Prophets in Los Angeles right at the end of the 1990s, they both lavished praise upon the first two books. I had considered them to be for kids and was surprised by the passion demonstrated by adults toward such subject matter. Nothing about the Harry Potter synopsis differentiated it from other teen magic premises in my estimation. When I went home and read the first three books (Prisoner of Azkaban had recently been released), I was stunned by their impeccable quality. What was most impressive is that upon release of Goblet of Fire, J.K. Rowling demonstrated that she had leveled up as a writer by creating a profound work of fiction. I was frustrated by the Rita Skeeter subplot just as I was aggravated by the elf slavery storyline and, well, most of Order of the Phoenix. Rowling's writing is an impeccable demonstration that even the greatest authors make errors in judgment just as her career trajectory shows that overwhelming talent combined with vision and effort does get rewarded in the end. I consider her to be on the shortlist for greatest living storyteller.
Obviously a huge fan of the series, I have watched each Harry Potter movie on opening weekend. As a webmaster, I also take tremendous satisfaction in the fact that BOP was one of the first North American web sites to feature a review of Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone due to the fact that Ash Wakeman, a British writer, saw a sneak of it there and wrote a review for BOP. We are coming up on the tenth anniversary of the web site and it's fair to say that Harry Potter's tenure as a box office behemoth encapsulates that time frame quite well.
With regards to movie subplots, the ones that aggravated me the most in the novels were thankfully dialed way down in the movies. To my complete astonishment Dolores Umbridge makes for a phenomenal movie character when shown in short bursts rather than stretched out over several hundred pages of monotonously one-note behavior. When I re-watch the movies, the only plot that doesn't work well for me is the one involving Hagrid's brother, who isn't well animated and is stereotypical for a dumb giant.
My favorite character is Luna Lovegood, the otherworldly hippy girl whose strange insights into humanity frequently lead to the deepest epiphanies on humanity. She is stubbornly optimistic, remarkably well intended and arguably the best adjusted of all the kids struggling to survive their years at Hogwarts. And from now until the end of time, I will love Luna Lovegood's lion hat that she wears during that Quidditch match.
Finally, will Harry Potter break the opening weekend record? Yes.