Monday Morning Quarterback Part V
By BOP Staff
July 21, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: A couple of years ago when The Dark Knight broke the opening weekend record, we honed in on the final Harry Potter film as the most likely to break its record. Now that Harry Potter has done so, are there any films on the horizon that you believe have a legitimate chance and besting the new total?
Edwin Davies: In what amounts to the box office equivalent of a game of leap frog, I think that The Dark Knight Rises has the best chance of overtaking Potter, though the fact that Nolan has opted not to film it in 3D might hobble its chances slightly (even if, artistically, it's probably the smartest move). I'd throw The Avengers into the ring too, but that is at least partially dependent on how well Captain America does. At the moment, The Avengers has the goodwill and box office clout of Thor and the Iron Man films on its side, but if Cap doesn't deliver then it could turn off enough people to stop it from reaching the heights it would need to.
Brett Beach: Breaking Dawn Part 2. It was reaffirming to see the Potter faithful and not-so-faithful turn out like rapid Muggles for the final-go-around but I think the Teams Jacob and Edward contingents will descend like hungry vampires and ravenous wolves and come up closer to a $200 million opening weekend than anyone before (and closer than I would have thought any film could ever do). Breaking Dawn Part 1 will be big but will play like Deathly Hallows 1. The Dark Knight Rises gives me fits. It's not in 3D, but it's following a $533 million grosser. Still, it doesn't have Heath Ledger's death or a comparable performance (that we know of yet) to incite the masses. It may overtake HPDH2 only to get the shaft four months later from BD2.
Jason Lee: I agree with Edwin, as The Dark Knight Rises is the only current contender in my view - but I don't think it'll break DH2's record. I also don't see Breaking Dawn Pt 2 breaking it. DH2 simply had too wide of an appeal - it was (as Reagen noted in the Weekend Forecast) simply a film that was going to have some measure of appeal to anyone that had ever seen the previous movies, read any of the books, or had friends that fell into the two aforementioned categories. I'm hard pressed to think of another movie that will have this broad of a pull. Personally, I think that DH2's opening weekend record will stand much as Spider-Man's record did - lasting through multiple films and multiple contenders, longer than most anticipated at the time.
Joshua Pasch: I agree with Jason's sentiment that DH2's record won't withstand the test of a decade's worth of efforts at overtaking its record. It will fall much sooner than that.
I think Brett has it right. Dark Knight Rises won't cut it. No 3D, no Heath, an awful first teaser trailer. I don't see it happening. Of course, that can change if Bane ends up being as riveting a villain as we think he can be. Also, they are billing it as the END of the franchise, so that will help. If I had to guess now (a ridiculous proposition but I'm doing it nonetheless), it throws under the $157 opening of its predecessor, even if just by a bit.
As for Breaking Dawn, Part II, I think that's where HP7B needs to be concerned for its record. Twilight fans proved they love rushing in to theaters asap, and it will also get the 3D bump (I believe). That kind of insta-demand might shatter records. At the very least, I'd say HP7B's opening day record of $92 million is a risk to fall. The demand for the Twilight flicks is so upfront, it'll just depend on how fast it starts that first day.
Bruce Hall: Breaking Dawn Part 2. Batman definitely has to be in the conversation, because the next one is presumably going to be the last of the Christopher Nolan Era and that's going to draw mind blowing numbers. But the Twilight series has the kind of fans who will organize a concerted effort to ensure that the franchise swan song breaks as many existing records as possible. And I feel fairly certain that the weekend BD2 opens, they'll at least come close. Yay, Emo Vampires!
Reagen Sulewski: I don't think the film that will break this record has started filming yet. Twilight is a self-limiting phenomenon and I'm already seeing some steam coming off that franchise. Dark Knight had a unique set of circumstances that won't be repeated with Dark Knight Rises, and none of the other upcoming comic book films have that sense of urgency about them. As I mentioned earlier, ticket price inflation will eventually eclipse this mark, just like all that came before it, but it's most likely none of the titles we have in mind.
Daron Aldridge: As much as I want to say it, I don't think that The Dark Knight Rises will get there. It has the "finale" hook to possibly make up for what you guys saying is lacking from The Dark Knight but is that enough to top Deathly Hallows: Part 2? I don't think so. I hate to admit it but I think that the final Twilight series film could achieve the same sense of urgency and repeat business on opening weekend from its rabid fans to push it over the last Potter film. Reagen brings up an interesting description of the Twilight series as "a self-limiting phenomenon" but I have to disagree because given the eerie consistency of the Potter franchise previously, I think naysayers could have said the same thing Harry. Even if it ends up in the same ballpark as the other franchise entries, the opening weekend is the biggest threat to this newly coronated record. In a case of "self-limiting," I think that Iron Man 2 proved that The Avengers might be capping out at best with the opening numbers of Iron Man2 and the total for the first Iron Man.
Matthew Huntley: Aside from The Dark Knight Rises or Twilight: Breaking Dawn, I would say the next Avatar movie and The Amazing Spider-Man have a legitimate shot. They both extend already beloved franchises, and in the case of Spider-Man, I can see fans being very curious about the reboot come opening weekend.
Jim Van Nest: The more I think about it, the more I'm agreeing with Matthew. We may have to wait for the Avatar sequel before we have a legit contender. In fact, we may have to wait for the final Avatar sequel. Nothing else on the schedule seems "event" enough to do it.
Shalimar Sahota: I would also say The Dark Knight Rises, for obvious reasons. However, Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part One and Part Two could also potentially do it. I do believe that Twilight: Eclipse could have beaten The Dark Knight's record during the summer last year had it not opened on a Wednesday. While I consider these to be strong contenders, I'm kind of with Reagen, in that right now the film that dethrones Deathly Hallows Part 2 doesn't yet exist.
Max Braden: For opening weekend, I'll join in agreeing that it will hold until the next Avatar. I expect that Twilight will be big, Batman will be bigger, but neither (nor Avengers) will break the last Potter's weekend record. I will say this, though - I'm still annoyed by the inclusion of "midnights" in Friday's take. If you're showing stuff at 9 p.m. on Thursday, that's not a midnight sneak. Just open the damn movie on Thursday at that point. Or don't, and stick with the three-day weekend that has been tradition all these years.
But what is Emma doing with her hair today?
Brett Beach: I think that Alan Rickman, Maggie Smith and Gary Oldman may have good solid careers ahead of them...
Of the three leads, I expect Radcliffe and Watson to dominate with other hits (film and Broadway) and maybe future acting nominations, but Grint could have a surprise character actor career in him. I would hope for more from Evanna Lynch, even if it is just a Luna Lovegood rom-com spinoff. (The more I think about it, the more delightful it strikes me.)
Edwin Davies: I get the feeling that, in the short term, Radcliffe and Watson might have the showier careers, with Grint having a fairly long and distinguished career not unlike those of some of his older co-stars in the films.
Of the other cast members, I think that Tom Felton (Draco) might have a bright future ahead of him, since he's always been one of the more dynamic members of the supporting cast. Matthew Lewis (Neville Longbottom) might surprise everyone since - my female friends assure me - he is actually really good looking once you get him out of the Neville fat suit and make-up, so he could maybe move into more substantial leading man roles in the future.
Jason Lee: Considering how many times during DH1 and DH2 Radcliffe was shown without a shirt on, I'm guessing that most people behind the camera believe that he'll have a pretty good career as a leading man. To me, the best (young) actor of the series was Watson, and I can pretty easily see her in both comedic roles and dramatic roles. I think Grint and Felton are both too limited in their acting ability (seriously, the majority of what the character Draco did in the last three movies were sneer, cower and snivel) to do anything of note past the HP franchise. I'd like to see more of Evanna Lynch (Luna), especially in some non-airbrain/out-of-it roles.
Joshua Pasch: Is it a cop out to just say I hope they all succeed tremendously? I wouldn't mind that one bit. I also think Edwin is dead on with his left-field assertion that Michael Longbottom Lewis has a good a shot as any to become a leading man. The girls at work won't stop talking about how he looks just like Clive Owen now and how strikingly handsome he is. So, good for him I guess?
Jim Van Nest: Honestly, I'd be more likely to wager on one of the smaller characters (Neville or Luna) than on 1 of the big 3, or even Draco. Radcliffe, Grint, Watson and Felton ARE Harry, Ron, Hermione and Draco. You will never see them again and not think of the Potter character. Just like Mark Hamill is and will always be Luke Skywalker. So, I guess I'll join the growing list of folks who expect Lewis to be the one who really breaks out of the Potter franchise and can carry it forward.
Max Braden: I think Watson could easily get away from her childhood image with a long career. I think Radcliffe just has a face that is too distinctive, like Elijah Wood as a hobbit. But like Jim, the one I'd really like to see expand her career (even though I'd predict it as a long shot) is Evanna Lynch, who plays Luna Lovegood. I also think Bonnie Wright (Ginny Weasley) could have a significant acting career if she wanted to continue.