Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
August 9, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Change-Up opened to $13.5 million. Is this a good enough result for a bromance?
Tim Briody: It opened exactly the same as Hall Pass, which is probably what it deserved, although that might be too much of a compliment to Hall Pass.
Brett Beach: I consider this a disappointment and I don't think there are many ways to spin it positive. As the last of the "summer of raunch" contenders to unfurl, it looks like it will be the lowest grossing by a mile. Reynolds and Bateman are as hot as they have been in their careers, and even with them both in films earlier this summer (and Green Lantern underperforming), they still should have helped pull in a launch in the low-20 millions. Why so low? I think the trailers didn't sell the funny (and if you stop to think about it, the two are a little too similar for a body switch to really be all that meaningful) and it suffered a bit from seeming like Hall Pass ("magic" access granted to cheat around). For a bromance? It throws beneath I Love You, Man (in which Paul Rudd's character is for all intents and purposes, me) and won't have the legs, either. $40 million if it's lucky.
Joshua Pasch: This is most definitely not a big enough opening, and I think Bateman, Reynolds, and the studio would agree. Both of those guys just took big wallops to their star power, especially Reynolds, who now has two duds in just as many months.
I do think this was more a victim of scheduling, and would have been well served to have waited for an October or even holiday release after the extensive number of R-rated comedies in the last two months (Hangover2, Horrible Bosses, Friends With Benefits, Bad Teacher, and Bridesmaids). Seriously, each of those movies has performed on a range of above average to exceptional. My take is simply that a lot of people said to themselves "well, this looks funny, but, meh, we just saw all of those other incredibly similar, solid, but not great R-rated comedies...maybe this one we can just Netflix or Redbox down the road."
I also happen to think 30 Minutes Or Less will suffer a similar fate next weekend.
Edwin Davies: This is definitely not a good enough result, either for a bromance or in comparison to the deluge of raunchy product that we have seen over the last couple of months. Ultimately, the problem with this film was that the trailers didn't do enough to make it look funny and didn't really establish what the stakes were for either character. They just seemed to say "hey, they trade bodies and stuff happens", whereas any half-decent body swapping film has some problem that the characters have to overcome (just think of Freaky Friday and the demands of a young girl having to do her mother's job and the mother having to survive high school). Without that, and without solid enough jokes to make up for the lack of conflict, it just didn't measure up.
Reagen Sulewski: This is a solid result for a comedy that sold itself without the aid of any jokes. I have to reiterate my "Really? We're still making these films?" comment - they were tired and stale when Fred Savage was starring in them.
Max Braden: I like ridiculous buddy comedies in August, like The Other Guys last year, which opened to...$35 million. I think the problem is you really have to go for the ridiculous and not the paint by numbers approach to win. "Sure it's just like other body switching comedies, but *this* one is for adults!" isn't going to cut it. I may be just thinking of the fountain, but The Change-Up didn't look much different than the horrid 'curse' movie When In Rome. I wonder if screenwriters Lucas and Moore thought they were going to coast to easy money on this after The Hangover hit big.
David Mumpower: I disagree with Reagen about the body swap comedy in principle; I believe 17 Again stands up against any film ever made in this sub-genre. In other words, the concept doesn’t need to be fresh to avoid the feeling of being dated. And while I see some people here locking in on much bigger features as comparisons, my opinion is much more simplistic on this particular topic. Out of all of the summer 2011 comedies, The Change-Up has the least funny trailers. Even the reason why the principal leads perform the body swap is cynical. “We don’t have a good idea as to why, but wouldn’t it be funny if Ryan Reynolds and Jason Bateman switched skin for a while?” The rest of the clip demonstrates how little story there is beyond that premise. It’s like everybody quit trying after the pitch was purchased by the studio. Bad Teacher, Horrible Bosses and Bridesmaids have all earned a ton of money because they exist beyond their easily described concept. The Change-Up does not and that’s why it won’t make money during its domestic release.
Everything old is new again...and again...and again.
Kim Hollis: Are you concerned about the lack of fresh, new ideas this summer?
Brett Beach: Not anymore so than in most summers over the last 10 years (i.e. my adult life, and I do wonder if most people my age feel this way vis a vis this summer's slate vs what they liked when they were 12 or 14. For every Who Framed Roger Rabbit, there is a Jaws: The Revenge). Most of the $200 million-$300 million budgeted films aren't made for adults so I know you either go and "turn your brain off and have a good time" or you don't. (On the "keep your brain on" end of the spectrum, I saw Malick's Tree of Life and it astonished me about as much as I hoped it would.)
Looking ahead to next summer, it looks to be pretty much the same ratio of "original ideas" (10%) to sequels (40%), reboots (30%), TV adaptations (15%) and non-fiction book adaptations (5%). And though my cynicism remains the same, I will make exceptions for a few and one or two will blow me away. And that is why I still love movies.
Edwin Davies: I'm with Brett on this one. This year doesn't seem to have been any better or worse than previous years, and in at least one regard it might have been slightly better if we consider the run of R-rated comedies we've been discussing this summer. With the exception of Hangover Part Two, all of them were original films that, despite their varying quality, succeeded through the strength of their central concepts, rather than through name recognition. In terms of what we would consider actual blockbusters, I've come to the realization that originality is a much prized commodity in summer because it's so hard to find, so what is ultimately more important is quality. I don't mind if the majority of films are based on comic books or sequels or remakes so long as they are actually good, and I can turn to independent cinema if I want to see original ideas that I haven't seen before. It'd be great if every film was Inception, or if we got just one Inception a year, but I'm happy with a Thor or Rise of the Planets of The Apes.
Shalimar Sahota: I remember last summer commenting how nice it was to see a trio of original films occupying the top of the US box office (Inception, Salt, Despicable Me). This summer, there has been no such occurrence. I was concerned about the lack of originality a long time ago (like ten years ago). Now I'm just used to the fact that it's on a life support machine and gets resuscitated every so often. It just as much a surprise to me when a film that isn't based on anything happens to open big. It's worth noting that three blockbusters this summer, all sequels (and initially based on existing material), all in 3D, passed the billion-dollar mark in worldwide ticket sales - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, and Transformers: Dark of the Moon. If that's what's making money, then studios will invest far less in original films in the coming years, and when they do, they'll be looking for a possible franchise.
Still, it was nice to see Super 8.
David Mumpower: 2011 does have that feel of unoriginality to me, and I believe that Shalimar hits on the why of it. Inception was such a majestic production all the way around, that rare feature film that becomes a box office blockbuster while maintaining its focus on quality. The result is that my perspective is skewed somewhat about the overall content of the summer of 2010 simply because that one movie was so flippin’ fantastic. Ignoring the Harry Potter conclusion, most of the popular films over the past few months fall in the category of “tolerable” for me. Nothing has wowed me enough to deserve a more glowing adjective. Even the Pixar title this season has a decidedly commercial stamp to it since they have to extend the Cars merchandising brand to the pay the bills for the next Up. The summer of 2011 has been a series of sequels, rebranded franchises, comic book adaptations and the like. We knew that would probably be the case earlier this year and nothing has happened to change that opinion. For reasons I enumerated yesterday, I have no problem with this, but following on the heels of Up in 2009 and Inception in 2010, I am vaguely disappointed overall with the lack of high points in the summer of 2011.