Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
August 15, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Tim Briody: It's an adaptation of a fairly recent bestseller, so it was still fresh in a lot of people's minds. I'd first heard of the book about a year ago, and looking it up the novel was published in February 2009, so two and a half years is a fairly decent turnaround time from publication to film adaptation. What also helped The Help (hah!) is I think it hit an audience, women, that's been pretty underserved this year. And no, Bridesmaids didn't count.
Brett Beach: I first want to mention something John Hammam pointed out in his column: that a straight-ahead drama, even if it has a historical bent as this and Seabiscuit do, is an anomaly in the summer months. There are high-octane action film and thrillers, horror films, family movies, animated features, tentpole launchers and sequels, comic book adaptations, and romantic comedies, but an adult drama is unheard of. For a film with no big names, in that genre, to open to $35 million in August (and I do want to give credit and say that it would have won the weekend, but I won't get sidetracked with the whole Wednesday opening thing) to me seems equivalent to an $80-$90 million opening for some anticipated summer blockbuster.
As to why? Well, I don't know that I entirely agree with the whole "bestselling book is fresh in people's minds" thing. For some reason, I was thinking of two of Eastwood's mid-'90s adaptations of insanely successful books in vastly different genres, The Bridges of Madison County and Midnight In the Garden of Good and Evil. The former opened decently at $10 million and ended with an impressive $71 million. But the latter opened soft and never recovered, winding up with $25 million. Just because a book has a devoted following won't necessarily translate into bodies in the seat. And it doesn't guarantee a huge turnout for opening weekend. Having not read the book, and being only tangentially familiar with the plot, I think the uplift of the storyline struck a chord (I was initially under the false impression that it must be a tearjerker/tragedy, but that appears to be incorrect) and it filled a niche that, as stated above, never gets filled this time of year. It was the epitome of counterprogramming (like Taken during the Super Bowl) that got unexpectedly good reviews to start and now appears to have great word-of-mouth to push it forward.
Edwin Davies: I agree completely with Brett that the success of the book should not be overestimated as a reason for the film's success. It certainly helps that a lot of people were aware of the book, but unlike in the case of comic book fans, for example, there is no guarantee that the fans of a bestselling book will flock to the theaters on opening weekend to see the film version. They may like the story plenty, but buying the book one time hardly constitutes brand loyalty.
The good reviews probably have a lot to do with this result, since these kind of straight up dramas are exactly the sort of films that implode if they don't get at least moderately good reviews. Though not ecstatic, for the most part, they were strong enough to convince people who had read the book that the adaptation wasn't a travesty, and people who hadn't read it that it was worth a shot, especially given how different it is to everything else out there at the moment.
Max Braden: I'd call that result at least double what would have been considered a good opening. I think that this is one of the first movies this that people looked at and saw Oscar potential, creating a must-see mindset. And I think The Help also looks and feels similar to The Blind Side, itself one of the Best Picture nominees. Oh, also, in contrast to the rest of the summer, it doesn't look dumb.
Jason Lee: The book's significant fanbase aside, I hardly thought that the film would become a break-out success given the anemic commercials that Disney has been using to promote the film. Seriously, it just seemed like 30 seconds of random women reading a book and gasping audibly. Hardly the stuff that $25+ million openings are made of...or so I thought.
David Mumpower: At the risk of stating the obvious, the one asset The Help had that is all too rare is that it has a positive perception among consumers. The book is very popular, the buzz regarding the film has been nothing short of massive, and the glowing reviews are of a level ordinarily reserved for awards season. In fact, The Help just kickstarted an absolutely dreadful Oscars year to date with this scintillating debut. Everything about this project is positive, something I haven't been able to say about a project since Inception. We have seen solid box office and solid reviews for multiple titles but nothing on this scale. While we all acknowledge this is a smaller scale than some of the other summer winners, I wholeheartedly agree with Brett that this is the drama equivalent of a $90 million debut. There are not enough superlatives in the dictionary to describe aptly what Disney has accomplished here.
Good ol' Wichita
Kim Hollis: With Easy A, Zombieland and The Help in the books and the Spider-Man reboot forthcoming, is it fair to say that Emma Stone is proving herself as a legitimate box office draw?
Tim Briody: I'd still say it's not that she's a draw, it's that she's picked the right projects in the three aforementioned films (and add in Crazy, Stupid, Love and Friends With Benefits and she's having a heck of a summer). And anybody could be in Spider-Man and it'd still do huge business.
Brett Beach: I am of the same mind that she has remarkable taste (and luck) in picking her projects - from the TV show Drive on to Superbad and to the present she has been in only one out-and-out critical/commercial dud (The Rocker) - but outside of Easy A, I don't know that I would attribute any success entirely to her. She has jumped on to my wife's and my list of actresses we keep an eye on (for what that's worth) and I do feel she is reaching the point where Reese Witherspoon was in the early 2000s where a Legally Blonde/Sweet Home Alabama type double-punch could lift her off into the stratosphere. She seems to have latched on to Will Gluck pretty strong, hopefully they can do right by each other.
Edwin Davies: She's slowly becoming a draw, in that I think a lot of people will perk up when they see that she is involved with a film because, as Brett and Tim have said, she seems to have a real eye for picking good projects to work on. However, that general interest has not quite reached the level where people have to see an Emma Stone film, regardless of what the film is about. The Help has done well so far based on a combination of good reviews, strong subject matter and a popular source novel; in Zombieland the premise was the star, and even in terms of the actors involved she wasn't the focus in the same way that Woody Harrelson and Jesse Eisenberg were; and her involvement with The Amazing Spider-Man is interesting, but it's unlikely to draw more people to the film than were already going to see it. I do think that if The Help makes close to or more than $100 million then it could be the film that pushes her right to the edge of being a draw, whilst whatever the next film she does after that will be the one that demonstrates that she is finally a "name" as far as the general movie going audience is concerned.
Max Braden: If Emma Stone's name is in a cast list I notice it right away and she's the primary reason I want to see the movie. That's probably because I have a crush on her. But that's just proof that whatever she's doing is working! I'll admit though if there's one name to come away attached to The Help in people's minds, it's going to be Viola Davis. But this still helps Stone twice over. One: because she can say she was the lead in a $35 million opening weekend, but more importantly, two: she can say she was the lead in a $35 million dollar *period drama*. This now expands her resume to show that she can hold up in teen movies, comedy, antihero, and drama roles. This is a big weekend for Emma Stone.
Jason Lee: I agree with Tim and Brett. Emma Stone either needs to help me make Kentucky Derby picks, or needs to give her agent a nice bonus this year.
David Mumpower: I have no fear of equivocating on this point. Emma Stone is on a career trajectory that will make her the next Sandra Bullock, assuming she doesn't flip out and Lohan her way out of her current lofty position. She has the perfect combination of natural talent and immense likability. Here is what is scary about her appearance in The Help. That movie is going to earn as much in two weeks as Zombieland, a VERY popular film, grossed during its entire domestic run. Zombieland is currently her highest earner outside of Superbad, a title where she is more or less just a co-lead actress in a guy film. With The Help cycling into The Amazing Spider-Man, her career trajectory is on an even higher upswing than it had been after the Zombieland/Easy A tandem. Nicolas Cage should hire her agent and/or script reader.