Oscar 2012: The Good, The Bad, and The Weird
By Tom Houseman
November 17, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
So when the Guilds started piling their awards on The King's Speech, everybody was kind of confused. Could this lighthearted period crowd-pleaser, a film that seemed to belong to the Oscar races of the late '80s rather than the late two-thousandsies, actually upset what was being called the film that defines a generation? It turned out that upset wasn't the right word for it. The King's Speech had secretly been the frontrunner the whole time, riding a typhoon of support from Academy members, and when it became the first film to win Best Picture, Director, Actor and Screenplay since American Beauty, it became clear that The Social Network never had a chance.
Which leaves us fairly confused when it comes to this year's Oscar race. Which way is the Academy going to turn? Will they pick a crowd-pleaser, an epic, a blockbuster, or a dark and uncompromising drama? Drivers, Writers, Spies and Spy chasers. Wizards, Prime Ministers, Maids and Inventors. Athletes, Factory workers, Soldiers and even Zookeepers (no, not Kevin James) are all in the thick of the Oscar race this year. Some have been seen by audiences, some only by critics, some by nobody but the people making them. Some are good, uplifting, spirited and fun. Some are bad, mean, dark examinations of humanity at its worst. And some are just weird, the kind that when you describe it to somebody their reaction ranges from “that's a serious Oscar contender?” to “how is that a movie?” Some are loud, some are quiet, and one is silent. All of them are jockeying for the gold this year. Let's see what we have...
The Good:
War Horse
When most people think of sweeping epic Oscar films, the first name that comes to mind is Uwe Boll, but a close second is Steven Spielberg. Spielberg has only helmed one Best Picture winner, but he's been nominated for Best Director six times, winning twice. Basically, if he makes a movie better than Indiana Jones 4, it's going to be a Best Picture contender, so it's no surprise that his latest war epic is one of the frontrunners. Based on a Tony award winning play (and its source novel), it features a cast without any really big name stars in it - although it's one of two Oscar contenders to star love of my life Benedict Cumberbatch - which means that the race it is running will really be all about Spielberg. This film is also one of the major unknowns of the year, as it has had very few screenings, but if it is as good as the play, it could very easily win Best Picture and Best Director.
The Help
One of the biggest hits of the summer, this movie has Oscar Bait written all over it. It deals with race, but not in a way that alienates or criticizes the overwhelmingly white Academy voters. It's also an actors' movie, with a large cast that will appeal to the largest branch of white people within the Academy. The one negative it has is that it was made by an unknown director, and since the direction wasn't particularly interesting, it is likely that this will be nominated for Best Picture without getting a Best Director nomination. The last time a film won under those circumstances was Driving Miss Daisy, which kind of makes sense, considering both movies had similar approaches to confronting racism, by which I mean “Yay white people!”
Midnight in Paris
There is still a lot of love for Woody Allen in the Academy, which is why they try to nominate him every time he makes a good movie. Such occurrences aren't too frequent, however, as Allen has only gotten two nominations in the last decade, and hasn't had a Best Picture nominee since Hannah and her Sisters more than two decades ago. But with Midnight in Paris proving to be his biggest hit ever, and one of the few light comedies in the race, it has a real shot at making it onto the Best Picture shortlist.
Hugo
If we're talking about filmmakers who constantly make their presence felt at the Oscars, any list that includes Steven Spielberg, Woody Allen and Uwe Boll is certain to include Martin Scorsese. But unlike Spielberg and Allen this year, Scorsese is making a film that is completely different than his typical fare*. Hugo is aimed at a much younger demographic than most Scorsese movies, being a children's film about the magic of imagination and the wackiness of Sacha Baron Cohen. Kids films typically do not do well at the Oscars, but considering there is a vacancy left by the supreme mediocrity of Cars 2, Hugo could take the Best Picture slot reserved for Pixar films the last couple of years. If there were ten guaranteed spots, Hugo would have a great shot, but considering there could be as few as five nominees, its chances are iffier.
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
One of the more interesting premises of any Oscar contender this year is based on an acclaimed novel by Jonathan Safran Foer and directed by Stephen Daldry, who seems to only make Best Picture contenders. But this is another cast driven film, and if it makes it onto the Best Picture shortlist, it will be because of a cast that includes Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock, and a slew of big-name actors. Right now it has a lot of potential, but because it hasn't been seen by anyone, we have no idea how receptive the Academy will be to it. It has a very thin line to walk, considering it's about September 11, 2001, although it seems significantly less dark than the last 9/11-related contender, United 93.
We Bought a Zoo
Cameron Crowe's latest film might be the biggest question mark in the race right now. Crowe does have some cred with the Academy, having won an Oscar for Almost Famous, but his last two movies, Elizabethtown and Vanilla Sky, were both critically panned and ignored by everybody (except for this girl that I met on New Year's Eve a couple of years ago, but I'm pretty sure she's not in the Academy). So even with a cast that includes Scarlett Johansson and Matt Damon, unless this movie gets great reviews it is going to sink quickly, especially if it's considered too slight or quirky for the Academy's tastes. Then again, it could be this year's Juno or Little Miss Sunshine and win Crowe his second Oscar.
The Bad:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Considering it is a movie that everybody is talking about, this film is considered that major contender that has the best chance of dropping out of the race. Yes, Fincher is on a hot streak, but before Social Network and Benjamin Button, his previous six films combined for three Oscar nominations, none in any major category. Yes, it's based on a best-seller, but one that's considered more of a pulp crime novel than a great work of literature. It's getting a lot of press, and it's going to make a lot of money, but it is the self-described “Feel Bad Movie of the Holidays,” and unless it gets stellar reviews it could just be considered too dark and harsh for the Academy, and end up empty-handed. Assuming the great reviews do come, it does have a real shot at being the winner and finally getting Fincher an Oscar.
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Two things to consider: 1. There are a ton of British people in the Academy. 2. There are a ton of British people in this movie. This is another dark, depressing movie (the third word in the IMDb plot description is “bleak”) about Cold War spies, featuring an all-star, crooked-toothed cast. It is baffling that Gary Oldman has never been nominated for an Oscar, but he has his best shot here, especially considering the reviews so far have been glowing. If the British contingent of the Oscars rally behind it, Tinker Tailor should have a clear path to a nomination (and it has Benedict Cumberbatch in it, you guys! Benedict Cumberbatch! Have you seen BBC's Sherlock? Benedict freaking Cumberbatch!!!).
The Ides of March
George Clooney has developed a reputation over the last few years as one of the most serious and interesting actors working in Hollywood, and whether or not it's deserved, it has netted him three acting nominations, as well as a writing and a directing nod, in the last five years. This is only the second drama that Clooney is directing, and while it has not received the level of acclaim as Good Night, and Good Luck., it still has a lot of supporters. Could a film about the evil underbelly of the American political system find its way onto the list of Best Picture nominees? Surprisingly, political films are not a great bet with the Oscars, perhaps because the Academy tries to eschew controversy at every turn. But considering how beloved Clooney is, you can't count out The Ides of March.
J. Edgar and The Iron Lady
Two biopics, both alike in dignity, both about important and controversial figures in their respective countries' histories, both starring revered actors longing for Oscar gold. It seems like a while since Eastwood's streak of Best Picture nominees, and considering the mediocre reviews that J. Edgar has gotten, it seems like its Best Pic chances are next to nil, but considering how much love there is for Eastwood, you never know. The Iron Lady does not have the same pedigree behind the camera, but it does have Streep starring as former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. If her performance is sufficiently lauded it could be enough to land her vehicle on the Best Picture shortlist.?
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
There is really no precedent for a movie like this when it comes to the Oscars. It is a film aimed for kids, but it has more in common with Lord of the Rings than with most children's movies. It is the culmination of a series adored by audiences and critics, and the Academy might want to nominate it as a way of rewarding the series as a whole. But how many Academy members are going to put this at number one on their nominee ballot? Especially considering that its thunder as the British film is going to be stolen by Tinker, Tailor. It's a long-shot for certain, but it can't be counted out of the race right now.
The Weird:
The Artist
In 1927, Wings was the first Best Picture winner, and the only silent film ever to take home the gold. A year later, The Patriot would be the last silent film to even be nominated in that category. This year, we could have another one. Since it premiered at Cannes, Michel Hazanivius' love letter to the golden age of Hollywood has been one of the most talked-about and raved-about films of the year. Undoubtedly there will be some bias against it (although a few Academy members will be able to reminisce about when they made silent movies) and I can't see it doing very well at the box-office, but everyone who has seen it has loved it, and it could be a huge hit with Oscar voters. Juan Dujardin is one of the favorites for Best Actor right now, and might pull a Roberto Benigni, riding a wave of popularity to Oscar and pulling his film with him.
The Descendants
Alexander Payne makes weird movies, but somehow manages to make weird movies that perfectly match up with the Academy's tastes. While he has only one Best Picture nominee to his name (Sideways, for which he won a screenwriting Oscar), both About Schmidt and Election were definitely in the running for nominations. Perhaps the fact that his movies are about middle-aged white guys strikes a chord with Academy members, and he's back this year with another critically-acclaimed dramedy. With George Clooney on board, it's no surprise that this is getting a lot of attention (but where was that attention for Clooney's best film, The American, last year? Nowhere, that's where.) and is, along with War Horse and The Artist, one of this year's favorites for a nomination. Whether it can win after that is another matter entirely.
Moneyball
The last time a movie about baseball was nominated for Best Picture was Field of Dreams, back when Kevin Costner was a respected actor and filmmaker. Fortunately those days are long over, and these days our baseball movies are more likely to star Brad Pitt, and to not actually be about baseball. You could argue that a movie about math was nominated for Best Picture as recently as last year, with The Social Network, and the last one before that was A Beautiful Mind. The point I'm making is that Moneyball is an odd duck in the Oscar race, but considering how glowing the reviews have been, in particular focusing on Pitt's performance, it could very easily score a nomination. The fact that it did very well at the box office won't hurt its chances, either.
The Tree of Life
When you think of filmmakers who are considered both weird and brilliant, you have to include Terrence Malick along with Terry Gilliam, David Lynch, and Uwe Boll. Malick has only had one film nominated for Best Picture, 1998's The Thin Red Line, but considering that he's only made two films in the last 40 years, that's a pretty good track record. Does the critically-beloved, Palm D'or winning, arthouse hit The Tree of Life have a shot at being nominated for Best Picture? Not really, unless the Academy is far more unconventional than they have ever been before. But if we're talking about films that could take The Help's Best Director nomination, this one is that the top of everybody's lists.
Young Adult
The last three films I'm going to mention are all long-shot dark horse candidates (not to be confused with War Horse candidates. Zing!) and where better to start than with the duo who are responsible for one of the stranger Best Picture nominees of the last decade. Nobody expected Juno to be a Best Picture nominee - I remember writing a very long article about how it had almost no chance of a nomination - but the combination of big box office and critical love propelled it onto the shortlist. Could the same happen with Diablo Cody and Jason Reitman's latest, Young Adult, starring Oscar winner Charlize Theron? The fact that its protagonist is intentionally unlikeable will be a strike against it, but not an insurmountable one. With the right amount of buzz, box office, and acclaim it could pull a Juno.
Drive
This is a tough one to predict, because it is very likely that it will get absolutely no attention from the Academy whatsoever. It is one of the darker and stranger films in this year's race, and will certainly not be to the taste of many Academy members. But the film has ravenous supporters, and those who like it really love it, which means it could get a lot of #1 votes on Oscar ballots. Ryan Gosling is also a rising star, and if support builds for him it will mean good things for this film. Only the craziest Oscar predictors would put it on their short list right now, but sometimes the craziest predictors are the ones laughing because they got it right... or maybe they're just laughing because they're crazy.
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Shame
Ever since Midnight Cowboy won Best Picture despite being rated X, it's been slim pickings at the Oscars for movies rated NC-17. Henry and June got a Cinematography nomination, and a slew of great films were overlooked because of their rating. Fox Searchlight is hoping to change that with Shame, starring indie darlings Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan. Considering the film is about sex addiction, it will have a steep road to an Oscar nomination, but by no means is it an impossible journey. Shame will be one of the most interesting films to keep an eye on in this year's Oscar race.
Obviously making predictions right now is futile, because everything will change when the NBR and the critics start handing out their awards, and then change again when the Guilds make their voices heard, but if I were to make a list of the films most likely to be nominated - not taking into account what I think has the best chance of winning - it would look like this:
1. The Descendants
2. The Artist
3. War Horse
4. The Help
5. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
7. Midnight in Paris
8. The Ides of March
9. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
10. Moneyball
11. The Iron Lady
12. Hugo
13. Young Adult
14. We Bought a Zoo
*So is Uwe Boll, apparently. This year he had a docu-drama about the holocaust released on DVD. No, seriously, he made that movie. That's a real thing.