Oscar 2012: The Actors
By Tom Houseman
November 30, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
This year, several of those actors are in serious contention for the Oscar, or at the very least for a nomination. Whether it's their first nomination in decades, their first ever, or it's become part of their yearly schedule to show up to the Oscars and go home empty-handed, this year they have a shot to take home the gold. At the same time, there are the new kids on the block, the people we have never heard of before but managed to have a breakout performance that everyone is talking about. And of course there are the folks who have won before, recently, and aren't overdue, but are in the conversation again. In order to gain a better understanding of where every actor stands in the Oscar race, we have to understand their history with the Academy, as well as what people are saying about their performance this year. Let's dive in.
Best Actor:
The Overdue:
Brad Pitt
One of the biggest movie stars of our generation has also managed to be one of the most respected actors, earning nominations for 12 Monkeys, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and Fight Club (Pitt was not nominated for Fight Club. -Ed. Of course he was nominated for Fight Club. No, no he wasn't. -Ed. You're shitting me, David! Let just look it up... Holy Crap! Pitt wasn't nominated for Fight Club!!!). Starring in one of the most acclaimed films of the year, Moneyball, makes Pitt seem like a sure bet to be nominated, but considering he doesn't affect an accent or a mental illness, it is likely that Pitt will once again go home Oscar-less.
Leonardo DiCaprio
Despite being known for half a decade as “that chick from Titanic,” Dicaprio has become one of the most celebrated actors of the last decade, yet has never seemed like a serious contender to win an Oscar. Dicaprio was nominated for The Aviator and Blood Diamond, but overlooked for Revolutionary Road and Shutter Island, so it's unclear how much love there really is for him. This year he's playing a real person in J. Edgar, which is always a plus, but the mediocre reviews for the film might trip up his path to a nomination.
Gary Oldman
Gary Oldman has never been nominated for an Oscar. Never! Honestly, though, it's not that surprising, considering his best performances have been as villains in genre pictures (Leon, The Fifth Element, The Book of Eli) which is not conducive to Oscar attention. Now, though, Oldman has his most Oscar-friendly part as the lead in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (not sure which of them he's playing) and it is very likely that the Academy will realize that Oldman has never been nominated before and be as outraged I am, finally getting Oldman onto the shortlist.
Woody Harrelson
As weird a dude as he is, Woody Harrelson is a remarkable actor, and his two Oscar nominations are a testament to his impressive career. Known for playing dark, seedy characters (his first nomination came for playing Larry Flynt), Harrelson might have his most interesting part ever as the lead in Oren Moverman's Rampart. Harrelson's last nomination was for Supporting Actor in Moverman's The Messenger, which is a good sign for Harrelson's chances this year. It is only a question of whether or not the film will get enough attention.
Ryan Gosling
Gosling's one nomination is almost as shocking as Oldman's none, especially considering how hot Gosling has been (both career-wise and now I'm drooling on my keyboard thinking about him) in the last few years. Overlooked for performances in Lars and the Real Girl and Blue Valentine, Gosling is back in the hunt this year with two performances in well-received films. He dominates the screen in both The Ides of March and Drive, but he's not terribly flashy in either, which won't help him get a nomination this year. Still, if a lot of support is thrown behind either film, it could push him in.
Michael Shannon
One of those actors who has been around forever (his first film credit was in Groundhog Day), nobody paid Shannon any attention until his scene-stealing performance in Revolutionary Road, for which he received his first ever Oscar nomination. Shannon is in the lead category this year with another dark, disturbed character in Take Shelter. Shockingly, this film about a possibly mentally-deranged man preparing for the apocalypse wasn't a box-office smash, but it did get a lot of critical acclaim, especially for Shannon's performance. If enough Academy members see the film they will certainly remember him in it.
The Up & Coming:
Juan Dujardin
You haven't heard of Juan Dujardin, but it's okay, I forgive you (unless you're French, and you have heard of him, in which case, holla!), but the Cannes Film Festival Best Actor winner is getting lauded from every direction. The fact that his performance is silent might be seen as a drawback if this film wasn't getting so much love right now. Unless something crazy happens, Dujardin should cruise to a nomination and is the frontrunner for the win.
Michael Fassbender
Easily the most challenging role to the somewhat conservative tastes of Academy members comes from Michael Fassbender as a sex addict in Shame. Fassbender has been on a hot streak the last couple of years, giving acclaimed performances in both independent films (A Dangerous Method and Jane Eyre) and blockbusters (Magneto in X-Men: First Class), but this is his first role to garner significant Oscar buzz. If the Academy can handle a film rated NC-17, Fassbender could be a serious contender, especially considering this is one of four great performances he's given this year.
Tom Hardy
I take credit for discovering Hardy back when he was in Bronson, before he broke out in Inception and became a star. Sadly, his superb performance in Warrior has been mostly overlooked because the film bombed, but I have to think that anybody who saw it acknowledges how great he was. Could that be enough to sneak into the Best Actor race? Lionsgate will have push this movie really hard to make sure it gets seen.
Demian Bichir
I'm gonna be completely honest here and admit that I don't know anything about this actor or this movie (A Better Life). Apparently it's directed by a guy who once thought “wouldn't it be hilarious if a teenager stuck his wang in a pie,” and the actor in question is that Mexican drug dealer from Weeds. This is what happens when several different movie sites share Oscar info: one person says “I think Demian Bichir has a shot at a nomination,” another person parrots that prediction, and before you know it some guy from a movie nobody's ever heard of is acknowledged by common wisdom as a legitimate theoretical Oscar contender. Whether or not the manufactured buzz translates to anything more than an Independent Spirit nomination is another issue entirely.
The George Clooney:
George Clooney
That guy from ER is an Oscar contender, apparently. Having won for Syriana, you can't really claim that Clooney is overdue, but he hasn't won so recently that a win is out of the question. Starring in one of the best-reviewed movies of the year is an easy way to score an acting nomination (but nobody tell Daniel Radcliffe that) but Alexander Payne does not have a great track record with getting his leads nominated. Jack Nicholson was nominated for About Schmidt, but Matthew Broderick and Paul Giammati were overlooked for Election and Sideways. Still, neither of those two were as beloved as Clooney is, so it would be one of the shocks of the race (and end any speculation of a Descendants Best Picture win) if Clooney is left out.
Best Actress:
The Overdue:
Meryl Streep
“Meryl Streep is overdue?” the incredulous reader asks, incredulously. Let me ask you a question, reader: when was the time Meryl Streep won an Oscar? If your answer is “man, it's been, like, over a decade,” you are technically right, but really not even close. Despite having 15 nominations (including being the only actor to be nominated for a Wes Craven movie. Look it up, nerds) Streep has not won an Oscar since 1983. Or perhaps it's because of her 15 nominations. Streep is such an acclaimed actress that it wouldn't feel right to give her an Oscar for just being great. She has to be truly transcendent to live up to her reputation and merit another Oscar, and you can't claim that she reached that level in Julie & Julia or The Devil Wears Prada. But that could change this year when she plays Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady. Reviews have thus far been tepid on the movie itself, but hot hot hot on Streep. This looks like the year that the great Streep could finally claim her third Oscar.
Glenn Close
One of the hottest actresses of the '80s, Close was nominated for five Oscars in seven years. But Close is both the name and the game for her, since she never managed to actually win the Gold and hasn't really been in the game since her nomination for Dangerous Liaisons in 1989. That could change this year, as Close is playing the title character in Albert Nobbs, about a woman who passes as a man for over 30 years in 19th Century Ireland. The part is pure Oscar bait, and critics have been falling over themselves to praise Close's performance. It seems to be a two-horse race between the veterans, and will likely go down to the wire.
Michelle Williams
I could probably claim Michelle Williams to be either overdue or an up-and-comer; yes she has been nominated for two Oscars, and probably should have been nominated for more than that (especially for her brilliant supporting turn in Synecdoche, New York) but she is also still in the first part of her career, with a lot more great roles to come and, most likely, several more nominations. Here she has her meatiest role, playing Marilyn Monroe in the memoir adaptation My Week with Marilyn. Williams is in the same boat as her veteran competitors, in that reviews mostly focus on how extraordinary she is. The Academy loves to reward young actresses, and if anyone is going to take down Streep and Close, Williams probably has the best shot.
Keira Knightley
It's strange to think about how long Knightley has been in the game, considering she became a recognizable face in 2003's Bend it Like Beckham, and a superstar the next year in Pirates of the Caribbean. Considering Knightley only has one nomination to her name, she is not overdue in the sense that she deserves more recognition than she has gotten, but rather that it's time for her to prove she has what it takes to be thought of as a great actress. She's had complex roles in Pride & Prejudice (for which she was nominated), Atonement and Never Let Me Go, but she has never had that role that allows her to be brilliant or to fail trying. She might have her chance this year in David Cronenberg's A Dangerous Method. Only two actors have ever been nominated for Cronenberg films (William Hurt in A History of Violence and Viggo Mortenson in Eastern Promises) but playing a mentally deranged woman in a weird love triangle sounds like pure Oscar bait. If Knightley capitalizes on the opportunity, a nomination would not be surprising.
Ellen Barkin
Depending on whether you're over or under the age of 30, you are either asking yourself “Whatever happened to Ellen Barkin?” or “Who the heck is Ellen Barkin?” Barkin was a pretty big star in the late '80s and early '90s (or so I can gather from her IMDb page), but other than a Golden Globe nomination in 1992 and an Emmy for something called Before Women Had Wings, Barkin hasn't got much in the way of accolades. But as a family matriarch in Another Happy Day, Barkin is receiving some serious buzz. With the film's mixed reviews and zero public visibility, Barkin will have a tough path to a nomination, but if she wins the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy (her only serious competition will be Charlize Theron and Kristen Wiig) she could slide in.
The Up & Coming:
Viola Davis
There was some concern that Davis would be pushed into the supporting category for The Help, in which she was clearly a co-lead with Emma Stone. If the concern was ensuring Davis an Oscar win, rather than not being even more blatantly offensive than the movie itself, then having Davis in the supporting category would be a good decision. There is a lot of love for The Help, much of it focused on Davis, but she has a lot of stiff competition in this category, which will make it very difficult for her to win. But she is certain to be nominated, and if she is the only woman in this category representing a Best Picture nominee, her chances will increase significantly.
Rooney Mara
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will certainly challenge the sensibilities of Oscar voters more than any other film this year except Shame and A Dangerous Method. Mara clearly has the best role in the film as Lisbeth Salander, but if the Academy doesn't embrace the film then her chances of being nominated drop to approximately zero. Regardless, this is a breakout role for Mara (before now known only for her brief but memorable performance in The Social Network) and if she becomes a star then there will be many more nominations in her future.
Elizabeth Olsen
If there is a spot available for this year's version of Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone, then that spot is clearly reserved for Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene. Olsen is young and pretty, but not movie-star beautiful, and while her potential for commercial products is likely not as high as Lawrence's (who already has X-Men: First Class under her belt, in addition to next year's The Hunger Games) she has the makings of an indie star along the lines of Ellen Page. The Academy loves nominating young actresses - although almost never young men - so Olsen has a shot if even one of the major contenders falls out of the race.
Felicity Jones
The other young actress trying to get a nomination with her breakthrough role is the co-lead of the romantic drama Like Crazy. While the film was a hit at Sundance, it hasn't gotten much attention during the course of its theatrical release, which will make it difficult for Jones to get any Oscar traction. If the critics speak up for her - specifically, if she can win the Best Actress award with either the NY or LA critics - and then build on that with a SAG nomination, she could grab a nomination, but right now she is a very long shot.
Mia Wasikowska
I'll be honest here and say that I can't see Wasikowska getting nominated for her performance as the title character in Jane Eyre. Of course, I'm not clairvoyant, which is unfortunate for me, but fortunate for Wasikowska. For some reason actresses from the first half of the year frequently get nominated in this category, with Diane Lane, Keisha Castle-Hughes, Kate Winslet (for Eternal Sunshine), and Julie Christie all maintaining their buzz throughout the year. The only film from this year that could be considered an Awards contender is Jane Eyre, but it will have to push its way hard into the consciousness of voters to pull that off. If it does, Wasikowska has potential for a nomination.
The George Clooney:
Charlize Theron
In 2004 Theron made the transition from sexy movie-star to revered actress when she won an Oscar for Monster. Since then she has only been nominated once, for North Country, but she still has enough credibility to always be a threat to get nominated for a good enough performance. There is one important drawback to Theron's chances this year, though: dislikable protagonists rarely show up at the Oscars. Jesse Eisenberg's nomination last year for The Social Network was an exception, but if the Academy dislikes the character (not including villains who we love to hate, like Hannibal Lector and Hans Landa) they are unlikely to nominate the actor. Theron's popularity could overcome that bias, especially if Young Adult gets good enough reviews, but it will be difficult if her character is as unsympathetic as she seems.
Tilda Swinton
Everyone I've talked to who has seen We Need to Talk about Kevin raves about Swinton, which is enough to make her a contender. Swinton only has one Oscar, won for her only nomination, but it was recently enough that she can't be thought of as overdue. The question for Swinton, the same as it is for Jones, Bichir, and Shannon, is whether or not her small indie vehicle can get enough traction to push her to a nomination. Last year Javier Bardem got a nomination thanks to a huge push from Julia Roberts, who championed his film, but Swinton, who did not have such vocal support for her similarly lauded performance in I Am Love, was overlooked. If the Globes or the SAG is willing to nominate her, to get her more attention from Academy members, she will be a contender, but without a lot of support this will just be another forgotten performance.
I'll be back later to talk about the Supporting races, but to tide you over I'll let you know which actors I think have the best chance of being nominated in the lead races:
Best Actor:
1. Juan Dujardin- The Artist
2. George Clooney- The Descendants
3. Brad Pitt- Moneyball
4. Leonardo Dicaprio- J. Edgar
5. Gary Oldman- Tailor, Tinker, Soldier, Spy
6. Woody Harrelson- Rampart
7. Michael Fassbender- Shame
Best Actress:
1. Meryl Streep- The Iron Lady
2. Viola Davis- The Help
3. Glenn Close- Albert Nobbs
4. Michelle Williams- My Week with Marilyn
5. Rooney Mara- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
6. Charlize Theron- Young Adult
7. Elizabeth Olsen- Martha Marcy May Marlene