Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
November 28, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: North American moviegoers celebrated the return of the Muppets, which earned $29.2 million in three days and $41.5 over the five-day holiday period. What do you think of this result, considering the movie has a $45 million budget?
Edwin Davies: Any film that makes most of its budget back on opening weekend has something to celebrate, but even by those terms I think this is a very, very good result since, even just a month or so ago, The Muppets seemed like a real wild card. Of all the films being released in the run-up to the holidays, it seemed like the one that was hardest to judge, and there were a lot of lingering questions about it. Did people still care about The Muppets? Will kids nowadays actually know who The Muppets are (and that they are not quite mops and not quite puppets)? Would the film be any good? The answer to all of them is a resounding yes, and as a lifelong fan of The Muppets I couldn't be happier. It's so great to see that the film's fun, inventive marketing paid off, and that Jason Segel, as writer and producer, has turned his passion for the characters into a film that does justice to them, and even more heartening that this 2D film featuring felt animals (and whatever the hell Gonzo is) triumphed over (equally high quality) 3D fare. This is a really, really great result, and at the very least it should take away some of the sting of them not getting to host the Oscars.
Going forward, I can see the film doing very, very well. This is lower than either Enchanted ($49.1 million) or Tangled ($68.7 million), both of which Disney opened at the same time in 2007 and 2010, respectively, but I think that The Muppets might end up finishing higher than Enchanted's $127 million total (Tangled's $200.8 million is probably out of reach, though). There is such goodwill towards these characters at the moment which, coupled with decades of nostalgia and cross-demographic appeal, could drive the film to a finish in $140-150 million range when all is said and done.
Matthew Huntley: I agree with Edwin's points entirely, though I'm not as optimistic the film will finish between $140-$150 million domestically. Next weekend will be the determining factor, of course, as we'll get to see just how huge the post-Thanksgiving drop-off is. With its slower than Enchanted start, I think $100-$120 million is more realistic. Nevertheless, it's already a commercial and (huge) critical success, so I think we'll be seeing more Muppets movies in the years to come. Perhaps they could even come out with one every four to five years like James Bond, where each installment is not a sequel so much as a new, independent adventure. The Muppets certainly proves the quality is there.
Tim Briody: Probably a year to even six months ago, The Muppets were a mystery to anyone under the age of 30, and got a response of "awww, I remember them from my childhood" to anyone aged, say, 30-40. Fortunately for that age group, Jason Segel used his burgeoning star power (and development deal with Disney) to get a Muppet movie made and did it right. Awareness was built with the clever parody trailers and with the rapturous reviews (seriously, it's the most positively reviewed wide-release of 2011 at Rotten Tomatoes. Did anyone see that coming?), it's no surprise that The Muppets effectively made its budget back already. Sure, it's another in a long line of reboots but this one revived a moribund franchise and I really hope there's a sequel.
I would also like to point out that David once publicly ridiculed me for seeing Muppets From Space in the theater, and this feels like sweet, sweet redemption. Maniacal laugh...maniacal laugh.
David Mumpower: I want to touch on something Matthew said. Next weekend's depreciation is only going to be a piece of the puzzle. We all know that the weekend after Thanksgiving at the box office is miserable more often than not. What frequently occurs with family films is that they recover afterward then hold on through the end of December, when a lot of late-in-the-release revenue is attained. So, the only news that would be noteworthy next weekend is if Muppets has a Puss in Boots-ish second frame.
With regards to this performance, Edwin already touched upon the logical comparisons, prior Disney Thanksgiving titles that appealed to the entire family. The other two I have been using are Alvin and the Chipmunks and The Smurfs. Both of these popular family programs in the same era that were largely forgotten for a while. Then, they were rediscovered upon their triumphant implementations as feature films. I always knew that Alvin and the Chipmunks' $44.3 million debut and $217.3 million domestic total were likely out of reach. What I find noteworthy is that the second Alvin and the Chipmunks release (you know, The Squeakquel) effectively doubled down in terms of box office. It matched its predecessor, which means that once a new generation of children were made aware of the premise, it was solidified as a franchise.
Whether the same thing happens with The Smurfs or The Muppets remains to be seen, but what we can say for certain right now is that The Muppets is a better investment to date. The Smurfs opened to $35.6 million on the way to $141.9 million during its domestic run; it had a stiff production budget of $110 million due to the CGI animation, though. This is the area in which The Muppets stands tall. Even in 2007, Alvin and the Chipmunks cost $60 million upfront to create. Because The Muppets are, you know, puppets (sorry for ruining the secret, kids), this project is much cheaper to produce. Before we bother factoring in the holiday toy sales, The Muppets is already car-rushing the competition in terms of box office intake against initial expenditure. This is a rather staggering box office triumph, assuming the film doesn't die immediately.
As for Tim going to see Muppets From Space in theaters, if mocking him for that is wrong, I don't wanna be right.
Arthur Christmas > Fred Claus
Kim Hollis: Arthur Christmas opened to $12.1 million over three days and $16.3 million over the five-day holiday period. What do you think of this result for the Aardman team/Sony?
Edwin Davies: It isn't great, and it is low by Aardman standards (particularly when you factor in that neither Flushed Away of Curse of the Were-Rabbit were in 3D), but I think that the box office story of Arthur Christmas will be determined by what happens over the next couple of weeks. As the only overtly Christmas-themed children's film out over the Christmas period, it's got a very good chance of sticking around for a while - especially when you factor in the very strong reviews and word-of-mouth - and of becoming the consensus choice for families wanting to see a good, festive film as we edge closer to the big day itself. The foreign box office should also be very good, since Aardman is an institution here in Britain, and all of their films to date have grossed over $100 million outside of America, a figure which I can easily see Arthur Christmas reaching.
So, not a stellar beginning, but I think that Arthur Christmas has a good chance of showing some solid legs as we move into December. The main obstacle I can see to it is Hugo, since if both films do well in the coming weeks they'll have to battle it out for space in the 3D screens, and with Hugo having a better 3D share so far (75% vs 53%) and due to expand drastically over the next few weeks, Arthur Christmas might get shoved out of the 3D screens and lose some of its momentum.
Matthew Huntley: I am both surprised and not surprised by Arthur Christmas. First, I'm NOT surprised by its opening weekend, as its marketing campaign was dry and uninspiring compared to the other family offerings, particularly The Muppets. Its theatrical trailer made it look generic and convoluted, and so family audiences probably approached it with caution and chose something more guarantee-able and familiar. However, I AM surprised by its glowing reviews, and just as Edwin alluded to, these and the film's word-of-mouth could propel it to $80 million or more over the next month. This won't be enough for it to recoup its reported $100 million budget, but at least it'll be respected and may show more vitality this time next year when it comes out on DVD/Blu-ray. Plus, its international numbers could help it clean up since its theme is universal and Christmas is celebrated in most countries around the world. Of all the films that came out this weekend, this is the one I'm most curious about come next weekend, just to see if its reviews/content allow it to hold onto its audience.
Tim Briody: I think it benefited from being a Christmas movie, as if you tell people it's an Aardman Studios film, you're like to get blank stares. Even if you mention Chicken Run, that was 11 years ago. It should hold fairly well over the next few weeks, but holy cow that budget...
David Mumpower: There is an aspect to this I want to emphasize before we evaluate opening weekend. The first is that going all the way back to Chicken Run in 2000, Aardman Animations titles have been remarkable performers overseas. The first three titles (Chicken Run, Flushed Away and Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit) earned a combined $227.6 million in North America. Their international revenue was a much more impressive $363.7 million worldwide. The behavior is similar to our recent Johnny English conversation in that the English movies do well here but we are the ancillary market rather than the primary one. Keeping this in mind (and not adjusting for box office inflation), two of their three films fell in the $55-$65 million range with the Wallace & Gromit title, their Toy Story, blowing the curve. And all three titles opened between $16-$19 million range. Aardman Animations titles to date have been slow, steady performers rather than out of the gates blockbusters.
Keeping this in mind, $17 million over five days is a touch less than I had anticipated due to the 3D release and several years of ticket price inflation (the last time there was an Aardman film, the average ticket price was $6.55). Still, I see this as in the same situation as the other new releases this weekend. A lot depends on how well it holds between now and New Year's Day. As long as it remains in exhibition until then, I fully expect it to wind up exactly where Chicken Run and Flushed Away did, although the $100 million price tag means North America is only paying the tip while Europe does the heavy lifting in terms of overall ticket revenue.