Oscar 2012: The Supporting Actors
By Tom Houseman
December 1, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Back in 2004 people were predicting Jude Law to get nominated for his role in The Aviator, but then when we saw the film we realized he was in basically one scene and all he did was rearrange Leonardo DiCaprio's peas. On top of that there are “Wonder Bras,” a term I made up to describe characters who are designated supporting, but are so “supportive” that they are really the leads. Ethan Hawke and Jamie Foxx were clearly the main characters in Training Day and Collateral, but they were so upstaged by their costars that they were relegated to the Supporting categories to boost their chances of a nomination (Foxx was also placed in Supporting to avoid competition with himself, as he was also in Ray that year).
Between the veterans and the people (usually the women) we've never heard of before, until you actually see the movie it is very difficult to know who has the best shot at getting a Supporting nomination. So what is an Oscar prognosticator who has not seen The Descendants, The Artist, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Young Adult, Coriolanus, or Albert Nobbs to do? Make stuff up, of course. That being said, here is my blind stab at breaking down Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress.
Best Supporting Actor:
The Overdue:
Christopher Plummer
Considering that he is one of the greatest actors of the last 60 years, it is baffling that Plummer has only one nomination to his name, which he got two years ago for The Last Station. This year he looks like he could score his second, and seems to be the favorite for the win. Beginners was largely overlooked by audiences, but critics championed Plummer's supporting turn as Ewan McGregor's father who comes out of the closet very late in life. If there's two things the Academy loves to nominate, it's legendary older actors and men who play homosexuals. Of course, very often the early frontrunner in the supporting races falls out of contention quickly (anyone remember Diane Keaton in The Family Stone? No?) but if, as expected, Plummer gets nominations from the Globes and the SAG, he is a shoe-in.
Max von Sydow
Plummer is not the only, how do I put this delicately... really old dude competing in this category this year. Like Plummer, von Sydow has only been nominated once, in 1989, for the Danish film Pelle the Conqueror, and he hasn't been a player since then, taking mostly small parts as scary old guys (I'm pretty sure he's been really old for at least 40 years). But von Sydow has the most Oscar-friendly part of anyone in this category right now, in the 9/11-set film Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. As an old curmudgeon who presumably learns to love again, von Sydow is perfectly set to take on Plummer in this race. If Extremely Loud is also nominated for Best Picture, he will likely be seen as the favorite.
Albert Brooks
Apparently this is the year of the once-nominated veteran in the supporting race, and although Brooks' reputation doesn't have the prestige of Plummer and von Sydow, he is a comedy legend who was nominated for Best Supporting Actor in Broadcast News. Brooks played completely against type this year as a hardened gangster in Drive, easily the most showy performance in that film. While it always helps an actor's chances to have their film be a Best Picture contender, very often character actors who give great performances can be nominated in otherwise overlooked films (Jeremy Renner last year for The Town, or Stanley Tucci the year before for The Lovely Bones). The love is there for Brooks, so if the precursors get the ball rolling for him, it is likely that the Academy will recognize his performance with a nomination.
Keneth Branagh
Unlike his peers in this race, Branagh has four nominations to his name... except one is for writing, one is for directing, and one is for best short film, so, if you're just counting acting nominations, then yeah, Branagh only has one, for his performance as Henry V. Like Plummer, von Sydow, and Brooks, Branagh has a reputation for greatness, so an Oscar for any of them would also serve as a life-time achievement award. The distinct advantage Branagh has over those three is that he is playing a real person; Branagh plays Laurence Olivier, perhaps the only Shakespearean film actor more revered than Branagh, in My Week with Marilyn. Often passionate love for a lead actor will help one of their supporting cast members in the race, so the accolades for Michelle Williams are only helping Branagh, and unless he is ignored by both the Globes and the SAG, he will likely be nominated.
John Hawkes
Now this is just getting ridiculous. While Hawkes has had a long career, mostly playing thankless bit parts (he was the liquor store clerk at the beginning of From Dusk til Dawn), it wasn't until his breakthrough role in last year's Winter's Bone that Hawkes received, say it with me now, his one nomination. Hawkes is back again with a very juicy role as a charming but dangerous cult leader in the indie hit Martha Marcy May Marlene. Like Branagh, Hawkes will only be helped by the support for his film's lead, Elizabeth Olsen. If she is nominated, he will very likely follow her, but even if she isn't, Hawkes is respected enough, and memorable enough, to be his film's lone representative.
Nick Nolte
Finally, someone has broken the streak. Nolte was nominated for two Oscars during the '90s, when he was a pretty big star, and his struggles with alcoholism and drug addiction only serve to make him a more sympathetic figure. In a case of art imitating life, Nolte played an alcoholic past-his-prime boxer training one of his sons for a UFC tournament in the critically acclaimed film Warrior. Unfortunately, since Warrior was forgotten by everyone almost as soon as it was released, it will be difficult for Nolte to - I absolutely do not apologize for this pun - fight his way to a nomination. Still, grizzled veterans always get attention from the Academy, and they don't get much more grizzled than Nolte. It's very easy to picture Nolte as the lone representative of Warrior at the Oscars, but just as easy to see the film ignored altogether.
The Up & Coming:
Jonah Hill
You don't think of Frat Pack members as being Oscar contenders, and I doubt that Adam Sandler will be nominated for either Best Actor or Best Actress this year, but Hill's work supporting Brad Pitt in Moneyball has turned a lot of heads. It's not a flashy performance, so Hill is reliant on love for the film to sweep him along. In addition, his youth and his reputation (his other film coming out soon is The Sitter) will also be strikes against him. This whole paragraph sounds pretty negative, but Hill was one of the most likeable characters in Moneyball, a film that is getting more love than just about any other movie this year. A nomination for Hill would prove that Moneyball has what it takes to win it all.
Armie Hammer
After a breakout year in 2010, in which he made a name for himself twice-over by playing both Winklevoss twins in The Social Network, Hammer is back with a much juicier role this year. As J. Edgar Hoover's right-hand man (and I can think of too many ways to turn that into a double-entendre) Hammer is supporting Leonardo DiCaprio, looking to follow in the footsteps of Djimon Hounsou, who was nominated in Supporting for Blood Diamond, for which Dicaprio was nominated for lead. Unfortunately, considering how mixed the reviews have been for J. Edgar, it is going to be difficult for Hammer to overcome the veterans who are vying for nominations. Supporting Actor is not a young man's game, although the occasional prepubescent sneaks in. That seems like one too many strikes against him, so unless the precursors are kind to him, Armie is going to be the one getting (I apologize for nothing!) hammered.
Patton Oswalt
If you're a fan of standup comedy, Oswalt's name should be very familiar to you, but if not, you might recognize Oswalt as the voice of Remy the rat in Ratatouille. Oswalt has not had much of a film career, but is set to make the jump from stand-up to legitimate actor with his supporting turn in Jason Reitman's Young Adult. As the sympathetic foil to Charlize Theron's misanthropic lead, Oswalt should able to capitalize on love for the film if it materializes. He would likely fill the same slot that Mark Ruffalo filled last year in The Kids are All Right, although Ruffalo has a lot more esteem in the film community than Oswalt does. One thing that is certain is that there is not enough room for both Jonah Hill and Oswalt in this category (even taking into account Hill's recent weight loss) so if one of them starts getting support, the other one is done.
The George Clooney:
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Since breaking through from indie character actor to big-name (still mostly indie) star, Hoffman has become a perennial Oscar contender, being nominated three times in the last five years. Unlike his first dance with Oscar, when he swept through the field to take Best Actor for his performance in Capote, Hoffman has been a category filler of late. Nobody thought he had a chance to win for his performances in the failed Best Picture contenders Charlie Wilson's War and Doubt, but he gave impressive performances in prestigious films, so he had enough support to get a slot. That could be the case again this year for his performance in The Ides of March. If that film is completely forgotten he doesn't stand a chance, but as long as it stays in the conversation, Hoffman should be considered a contender.
George Clooney
Seriously? Doesn't this guy have time to sleep? Between the movies he makes and the ones he just stars in, the red carpets he walks and the chicks he gets into bed by just winking at them, Clooney is a busy man. In addition to Clooney's starring role in The Descendants, Clooney has a prominent supporting role in his own film The Ides of March, as a politician with a dark past. Like Hoffman, Clooney is dependent on his film getting enough attention to push him into the race, and it's virtually impossible that both of them will be nominated. You can't rule out either of them right now, but the Globes and the SAG will determine which of them, if either, will be a serious threat in this race.
Best Supporting Actress:
The Overdue:
Vanessa Redgrave
Between the reigns of Katherine Hepburn and Meryl Streep, Redgrave was Oscar's first lady, being nominated twice in the '60s, twice in the '70s (including a Best Supporting Actress win for Julia), and once each in the '80s and '90s. Long overdue for another Oscar nomination, and has her shot here for her role in Ralph Fiennes' adaptation of Coriolanus. Redgrave might be facing an interesting bias here, considering that that last time an actor was nominated for a movie based on a Shakespeare play was Kenneth Branagh in 1990. Still, considering she is such a legend, Redgrave should have an easy road to a nomination with stops at both the Globes and the SAG to bolster her chances.
Janet McTeer
As an actress who has made her name predominantly on television and on the stage, McTeer is rarely an Oscar contender simply because she doesn't make a lot of movies that are released in theaters. She received considerable acclaim, as well as her only Oscar nomination to date, for her performance in 1999's Tumbleweeds, and since then has not been a factor in the Oscar race. This year, however, she is back in the running for her performance in Albert Nobbs, for which lead Glenn Close is almost assured a nomination. Reviews for the film have been mixed, which will hurt McTeer, as well as the possibility of vote splitting if co-supporting actress Mia Wasikowska steals some of her thunder. You can't call her a favorite, and with Globes and SAG nominations McTeer will be out of the race completely, but with enough support a veteran like her is always a factor.
The Up & Coming:
Octavia Spencer
The Help is very much an ensemble piece, and any of the women in this film could be singled out with a Best Supporting Actress nomination, but it seems that Spencer's performance is the one getting all the attention. As popular as The Help is, it seems almost a foregone conclusion that Spencer will be nominated, which will make her the first cast member from Dinner for Shmucks to earn an Oscar nomination (take that, Kristen Shaal!). Her performance is considerably lighter than Viola Davis', which makes it less award-friendly, but if the Academy decides not to award Davis and wants to give The Help something, Spencer could be the winner here.
Shailene Woodly
You know that moment when you go on IMDb and you realize that an actor you hate is probably going to be nominated for an Oscar? That's how I felt when I realized that Shailene Woodly, AKA the star of the worst TV show ever “Secret Life of the American Teenager,” has a prime supporting role in Oscar favorite The Descendants. Alexander Payne is great at getting his actresses Oscar nominations, with both Kathy Bates and Virginia Madsen getting nominated in his films. In addition, being the only actress under 30 in the running will benefit Woodly's chances. Woodly is not the sure thing that Spencer and Redgrave are, but it won't take much to guarantee her a spot.
Berenice Bejo
Unless you're a really, really big fan of the historical rom-com A Knight's Tale, or are related to Berenice Bejo, you have no idea who Berenice Bejo is. For those of you who are not part of the Knight's Tale Fan Club or the Bejo family, Bejo is a French actress who is looking to make her breakthrough this year in the silent film The Artist, currently the frontrunner to win Best Picture. Considering she has no dialogue the bias against foreign language films here, but as she is an unknown actress, not having a big weepy speech might be a drawback. Still, if she has a showy enough part, and love for The Artist continues to grow, Bejo seems like a safe bet in a wide-open field.
Melissa McCarthy
A year ago, almost nobody had heard of Melissa McCarthy. If you had shown me a picture of her, I might have recognized her as the chick from Mike and Molly. But by stealing every scene she was in in Bridesmaids, McCarthy has become a certified star, similar to what Zack Galifianakis pulled off with The Hangover. But Bridesmaids is recognized as a much better film than The Hangover, and one way that The Academy could award it is by nominating McCarthy. This is not an unprecedented move, considering that Robert Downey Jr. was nominated a few years ago for Tropic Thunder. A SAG nomination will be the make-or-break here; if she gets nominated there, an Oscar nom will follow.
Carey Mulligan
Even though I'm pretty sure she's, like, 12, Mulligan is quickly becoming a respected and acclaimed actress. This year she looks to score her second Oscar nomination by appearing in supporting roles in two very dark, hard-to-swallow films. As jealous as we all might be of the fact that she gets to play the love interest of both Ryan Gosling in Drive and Michael Fassbender in Shame, we cannot let that jealousy cloud our judgment. Right now it seems that her juicier part (I really hope no pun intended) is in Shame, but if the Academy gets turned off by what is supposed to turn them on, her chances there are about nil. Like several other contenders in the supporting races, Mulligan's best shot is to have one of her leading men build a lot of support, and then to ride their coattails. It is highly unlikely that Mulligan will be nominated for either performance if her lead is not in the race as well.
The George Clooney:
Sandra Bullock
It still gives me the heebie-jeebies to think about the fact that Bullock won an Oscar for The Blind Side, and I take comfort in knowing that no movie with such a simplistic, naïve representation of race relations will ever get Oscar attention again (oh wait...). Bullock is back in the race again, hoping to earn her second nomination for playing a grieving mother in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Ensemble pieces typically do well in the Supporting categories, and Bullock, like Spencer, will benefit from being in a film not based around one strong lead. I could easily see a tidal wave of support for Extremely Loud that takes both von Sydow and Bullock with it, in addition to Picture and Director nominations. However, Bullock won far too recently for a win to be on the table here.
Judi Dench
I would say that Dench's roles in J. Edgar and My Week with Marilyn are too small to be in the running for Oscar nominations, but considering the Oscar she won was for an eight-minute performance, she could walk through the background of an episode of a funny-or-die sketch and somehow get an Oscar nomination. There is a lot of love for this woman, is what I'm saying, and she has two shots this year, in both a comedic and a dramatic role. My Week with Marilyn is the better reviewed film, which makes it the likelier contender for Dench, but I wouldn't be surprised if she was nominated for her voice work in the most recent James Bond videogame.
The Jessica Chastain:
Jessica Chastain
This woman deserves her own category. Thanks to some luck involving release dates, Chastain has supporting roles in five movies released this year, which means if they changed the rule about actors receiving multiple nominations in the same category, the Supporting Actress field could be just Chastain competing against herself in The Tree of Life, The Help, The Debt, Take Shelter and Coriolanus. The question is which performance is most likely to be nominated. The Tree of Life is the most acclaimed, The Help is the most popular, Take Shelter is probably her juiciest role, and the Academy really likes nominating two actresses from the same film in this category, which would benefit her for both The Help and Coriolanus. Common wisdom is that the love for The Help will be what pushes her into this category, but I can't shake the feeling that Take Shelter or Coriolanus - particularly if the latter builds popularity - are where she will make her mark.
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Christopher Plummer- Beginners
2. Max von Sydow- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. Albert Brooks- Drive
4. John Hawkes- Martha Marcy May Marlene
5. Kenneth Branagh- My Week with Marilyn
6. Jonah Hill- Moneyball
7. Philip Seymour Hoffman- The Ides of March
8. Patton Oswalt- Young Adult
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Octavia Spencer- The Help
2. Vanessa Redgrave- Coriolanus
3. Berenice Bejo- The Artist
4. Shailene Woodley- The Descendants
5. Melissa McCarthy- Bridesmaids
6. Carey Mulligan- Shame
7. Sandra Bullock- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
8. Jessica Chastain- The Help... or Take Shelter... or Coriolanus... whatever.
9. Janet McTeer- Albert Nobbs
10. Judi Dench- My Week with Marilyn