Oscar 2012: Awards Season Kicks Off
By Tom Houseman
December 6, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
In the same way that the Iowa Caucuses kick off election season every four years, the Oscar season always gets started at the beginning of December by the National Board of Review, or, as I like to call them, the National Board of Shadowy Figures, because everybody appreciates a Clone High reference. They're not critics or filmmakers, they often don't get to see one or two of the latest-screening contenders (this year they missed Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), and very often their choices do a better job of representing what happens to be hot now rather than what has the staying power to win Best Picture. Really, the only importance they have is that they get to shout “we were first!” and whoever they pick gets to shout “we got picked first!” Just like the Iowa Caucuses!
This year, the New York Film Critics Circle decided to get the jump on the NBR in an attempt to cash in on their respect and credibility. And by cash in on, I of course mean destroy. By moving the announcement of their award winners to the last day of November, they made the statement that they don't care as much about awarding the best films as they do about getting the most press; this image wasn't helped by the fact that, rather than just wait a week to make sure they saw every important film, they demanded that a special screening of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo be held just for them. Of course, considering that none of the New York Times critics are members of the NYFCC, but famed nay-sayer Armond White is, perhaps their reputation is catching up to them.
But the point is, with the addition of the Independent Spirit Award Nominations, we now have three legitimate precursors that have announced either their awards or their nominations in the past few days, which means that the Oscar race is getting revved up. Some contenders have already gotten huge boosts from the first precursors, while others have taken hits. Also, the Golden Satellites announced their nominations, which always gives Oscar prognosticators a chance for a good laugh. Nothing is insurmountable at this point, but for a few films and actors that were already facing uphill struggles, those hills are now covered in snow (is snow still a thing? Since I've moved to Los Angeles I can't really remember anything about cold weather). Let's take a look at who got helped, and who got hurt, by the first batch of precursors.
Who Got Helped:
The Artist (Best Picture and Director NYFCC, Top 10 NBR, Nominated Best Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay, Cinematography Spirit Awards)
The Artist already had a spot being kept warm for them on the Best Picture shortlist, but now that seat has just gone from warm to flaming hot. Only twice in the last ten years has a film won the NYFCC and not been nominated for Best Picture, and both of those were far more hard-to-swallow films than this crowd pleaser. The only question that remains is what the box-office will be like for this unusual film. If a black-and-white silent film can win over critics AND audiences, it has the makings of a juggernaut.On the negative side, it is worth noting that supporting actress contender Berenice Bejo was overlooked by all three groups.
Hugo (Best Picture and Director NBR)
After getting ignored by the NYFCC, Hugo looked like it might not be able to overcome the overwhelming love for The Artist, considering both films are about the magic of old movies. But after taking the two biggest categories from the NBR, Hugo has proven that it has what it takes to be a Best Picture nominee. Claims that it is too light, or too kiddie, can be ignored now. Hugo will need as much support as it can get, considering that it will likely get shut out by both the SAG and the WGA. But a good showing at the Globes (where it will likely be the favorite to win Best Picture: Musical/Comedy) on top of these wins, will mean very good things for Hugo's Best Picture chances.
Albert Brooks (Best Supporting Actor NYFCC, Nominated Best Supporting Actor Spirit Awards)
I'll admit, Brooks was not an easy sell for me as a Supporting Actor candidate for his performance in Drive. I thought that the film would be too violent and stylized for most people's tastes, and that all of the performances would be overlooked. But having the spotlight put on him by the NYFCC guarantees him a spot as the villain in this year's supporting race, and the villains very frequently win (Christoph Waltz, Heath Ledger, Javier Bardem). A Spirit win would be gravy, but regardless, Brooks must now be thought of as a favorite, along with Plummer, to win the award.
Tilda Swinton (Best Actress NBR, Nominated Best Actress Spirit Awards)
Swinton needed some big press to help her overcome how little attention her film has received, and she got it, thanks to the NBR. With Meryl Streep established as the rolling snowball in this category, anything that keeps her from gaining momentum helps the field. As the first woman to strike a blow against the Streep Goliath, Swinton has made a mark on the race, and allowed me to write these words: We Need to Talk about Tilda.
50/50 (Top 10 indie NBR, Nominated Best Feature, Supporting Female, and First Screenplay Spirit Awards)
This film got good reviews and solid box-office, but it needs precursor attention to lend it credibility. If the Oscars are not able to look past the fact that it is a comedy starring Seth Rogen, it will not be a contender for the only category where it really has a shot: Best Original Screenplay. But a mention from the NBR, and three nominations from the Spirit awards, will mean that Academy members might be able to give it more respect. If it gets a Globes Best Pic Mus/Com (writing out the whole thing takes a really long time, okay?!) and a WGA nom, it will be in a very good position heading into the Oscars.
Harry Potter and the Something Something Wizard Stuff (Top 10 NBR)
Despite having some of the best reviews of the year, and making approximately $80 bajillion worldwide (how badly does that statement reflect on the credibility of a box-office site?), Harry Potter is in the same boat as 50/50 and (before the NBR win) Hugo. It is still seen as a film for kids, not something that should be nominated for Best Picture. Does this mention by the NBR undo all of those assumptions? Of course not. HP7.2 will be a tough sell to Oscar voters no matter what, but this is, at the very least, a step in the right direction.
Who Got Hurt:
We Bought a Zoo, Super 8, and Young Adult (Ignored by NBR and NYFCC)
These Oscar hopefuls know that if they don't start getting mentioned soon, it will be impossible for Oscar voters to take them seriously. We Bought a Zoo could be seen as too light, lacking the gravitas that helped Cameron Crowe's other films Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous achieve awards success. Super 8 was hoping to take on the role of the crowd-pleaser that skews younger, but with Harry Potter and Hugo getting so much attention, JJ Abrams' early summer release seems to have been completely forgotten. Young Adult has the highest hopes of the three, but now is reliant entirely on the Golden Globes to give it a boost going into the heart of the race. Right now Best Picture is a virtual impossibility for these three films.
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Unseen by NBR and NYFCC)
Yes, I understand that this is all part of the strategy for this film, but it is still a dangerous strategy. Other films have successfully skipped the early part of the race and come storming in late, with recent examples like True Grit, Letters from Iwo Jima, and Munich proving that it can be an effective strategy. But Stephen Daldry does not command the same level of respect as The Coens, Eastwood, or Spielberg, and Extremely Loud is being met with as much suspicion as excitement right now. It will not be considered an Oscar frontrunner until it is seen, so it needs to start being screened for critics before it goes the way of The Lovely Bones, another literary adaptation from a respected filmmaker that sank without a trace.
Glenn Close (Ignored by NBR, NYFCC, and Spirit Awards)
This has not been a good week for Close. Her film, Albert Nobbs, has not been getting very good reviews, which already puts her at a disadvantage. She needs as much critical support as possible to keep her in a prime position for an Oscar nomination, and being ignored by both the NBR and the NYFCC is a really bad sign. She came into the race behind Streep, and is now falling further behind. On top of that, Close has missed out on a chance to win an award without having to compete with Streep. Although co-star Janet McTeer was nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the Spirit Awards, Close was not nominated in the Best Actress category. Close is still a serious threat in this category, but if these snubs are the beginning of a trend, Close might be left out altogether.
Martha Marcy May Marlene (Ignored by NYFCC, NBR, Nominated Best Actress, Supporting Actor, and First Feature Spirit Awards)
MarMarMayMar is in the opposite position of 50/50 and Harry Potter; as a Sundance favorite with quite a bit of critical support, it already has the proper credentials to be an Oscar contender. But it is a very small and very dark film, which will make it difficult for Oscar voters to rally behind. Without a lot of precursor love it won't have a shot at Best Picture, and now Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Original Screenplay are questionable. The fact that it didn't even make the NBR top 10 independent films list is a notable slight, as a mention from either group in any way would have been very helpful. In addition, not being a Spirits Best Picture nominee means that even among the small independent films it is not the most popular pick.
The Golden Satellites
The Golden Satellites have always been a joke, but they used to be a funny joke. I'm not sure why they combined their previously split major categories (Comedy and Drama for Best Picture, Actor, and Actress) but seeing their eccentric picks was always more amusing that way. Now they're just weird, in addition to being completely irrelevant to the Oscar race. I guarantee you that nobody is going to point to Juan Dejardin's Best Actor slight by the Satellites as proof that The Artist is weak. On the plus side, the Satellites are the first precursor with a Best Song category, which gives us some indication of what songs the Academy might consider when they throw together that category haphazardly.
Who Got Jessica Chastained:
Jessica Chastain (Best Supporting Actress NYFCC, Nominated Best Supporting Actress Spirit Awards)
This category is for contenders who were simultaneously helped and hurt by the first round of precursors, and naturally Chastain is first up. The issue with Chastain's Oscar campaign isn't exposure, because it's difficult to find a movie that came out this year that she wasn't in. Yes, the Supporting Actress award from the NYFCC helps, but they didn't give it to a specific film; instead the award is for her performances in The Help, Take Shelter, and The Tree of Life. This will not help her deal with the vote splitting conundrum. The Spirit Awards specifically nominated her for her performance in Take Shelter, but considering that none of her other performances were eligible (the budgets of The Help and The Tree of Life eliminated them, while Coriolanus is considered a foreign film) that's not that helpful. If she is nominated by the Globes for a specific performance, it will go a lot way to clearing things up for her.
Moneyball (Best Actor and Screenplay NYFCC, Ignored by NBR)
Sure, movies like The Artist, The Descendants, and War Horse don't need a lot of precursor support to claim their Best Picture slots, but Moneyball does. Recognition in two crucial categories by the NYFCC are huge for this film's chances, because if it can get nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Actor, it will be well-positioned for the Oscars. But just as it helps Moneyball every time it gets mentioned, it hurts it every time it gets overlooked, and getting completely ignored by the NBR stings like a 95 mile-an-hour fastball to the thigh. Moneyball is the sort of film that, without a mountain of support behind it, will be a toss-up right up until the Oscars are announced.
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Top 10 NBR)
The big question surrounding Dragon Tattoo is whether or not it is too dark and violent, with director David Fincher admitting that there is too much anal rape in the film to qualify it as Oscar Bait. But if it gets enough support, then just like The Departed and No Country for Old Men it will be able to overcome its anti-Oscar issues. Mostly, it is comical that as much as the NYFCC bitched about making sure they could see this movie before they announced their awards, they then decided to ignore it completely. The mention by the NBR is very helpful in proving that Dragon Tattoo should be in contention, but getting ignored by the Globes (which is a possibility) would be several steps back for this film. Dragon Tattoo didn't get hurt by the first precursors, but it is still in a very precarious position.
So now that we know a little bit more than we did when I made my very, very early Best Picture predictions, here are my still very early predictions. The Artist has replaced The Descendants in the top spot, and Hugo jumped eight spots. Most of these changes were influenced by the announcements of the NBR, NYFCC, and Independent Spirits, but some are based on nothing but a hunch (The Ides of March dropping three spots for no reason I can argue). Things will be quiet for the next week, but the week after that is when the race gets into full swing. The Boston and LA Critics announce their awards on Sunday the 11th, followed over the next four days by the Critics Choice nominees, the SAG award nominees, and then the Golden Globes. If any of the frontrunners is most vulnerable right now, I would say it's War Horse, which is likely to be shut out by the SAG and might be ignored by the fickle Globes, but we'll just have to wait and see...
Updated Best Picture Predictions:
1. The Artist (Previously: 2)
2. The Descendants (Previously: 1)
3. War Horse (Previously: 3)
4. Hugo (Previously: 12)
5. The Help (Previously: 4)
6. Midnight in Paris (Previously: 7
7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Previously: 6)
8. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Previously: 8)
9. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Previously: 9)
10. Moneyball (Previously: 10)
11. The Ides of March (Previously: 8)
12. Drive (Previously: Not Listed)
13. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Previously: Not Listed)
14. Young Adult (Previously: 13)