Oscar 2012: Screenplays
By Tom Houseman
December 8, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The two most important precursors are the Guild awards (because they are the only awards groups that include Academy members) and the Golden Globes (because they're whores who make it their goal to be relevant to the Oscar race). But the Screenplay categories benefit the least from these precursors for two very odd reasons. In an attempt to distinguish themselves from the Academy, the HFPA (who run the Globes) decided to have only one screenplay category. This means that, although at least four of the Globes Screenplay nominees go on to be nominated for Oscars every year, the Globes don't give us anything close to a full enough picture of what the contenders will be in both categories.
The Writers Guild is unhelpful as a precursor for even stranger reasons. For reasons too confusing for us non-lawyers, every year several films are ineligible for this award. Last year The King's Speech was not in the running for the WGA, and everybody had to pretend that the indie drama Please Give was an Oscar contender. The year before, only WGA nominees in each category matched up with the Academy choices. So with the precursors not helping us too much, we are left to read smoke signals, interpret facial expressions, and rummage through the garbage cans of Academy voters to try to figure out what movies have the best chance (don't do that last one though. Diablo Cody really doesn't like it when you do that). Here are the contenders, in order of the likelihood that they will be nominated.
Best Original Screenplay:
The Locks:
The Artist
Obviously the film to beat is going be a contender in every major category, and a nomination for this one seems like a gimme. Typically, the major Best Picture contenders that don't score a screenplay nomination are the big epics that are more about spectacle than story (Avatar, Gladiator, Titanic) and The Artist is not one of those films. Will the fact that it is silent make some voters feel that it does not belong in a category so focused on dialogue? It's possible, but we won't know the validity of such a bias claim until the nominees are announced, as it is not eligible for the WGA awards. A Globe nomination will solidify its frontrunner status in this category, though.
Midnight in Paris
I mentioned in a previous article that the last Woody Allen movie to be nominated for Best Picture was Hannah and Her Sisters in 1987, but that doesn't mean that Oscar has been ignoring him since then. In the interim Allen has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay eight times, most recently in 2006 for Match Point. Almost every time Allen makes a popular film it gets nominated here (the notable exception being Vicky Christina Barcelona), and considering Midnight in Paris is his most popular ever, it seems as close to a lock as we can get this early in the race. Cruising to a WGA win with The Artist out of the way will be a very helpful notch in this film's belt.
The Safe Bets
Bridesmaids
Every once in a while the Academy likes to indulge the masses by nominating a popular comedy for its screenplay. Other than Pixar films, the last big hit comedy to get nominated was Borat, and before that My Big Fat Greek Wedding, so we're about due for another one. Bridesmaids has a lot of very vocal supporters, having gotten critical acclaim on top of its major box-office results; once people got past the comparisons to The Hangover, they realized this was a surprisingly mature comedy with enough fart jokes to appeal to everybody. The only issue voters might have is if they feel that this category is too comedy heavy, and could pass this film over for more serious fare.
Young Adult
Diablo Cody made a splash at the Oscars a few years ago when her first film, Juno, turned a swell of support into an overpowering wave of momentum en route to a Best Original Screenplay Oscar. Now Cody is back, teaming up again with director Jason Reitman and hoping to again take this category by storm. This is a different race for Cody, though. When Juno won it was a Best Picture nominee, which Young Adult will almost certainly not be. Juno was competing against only one other Best Picture nominee, the also-ran Michael Clayton, while this year two serious contenders to win Best Picture will be crowding the category. While Cody's clout makes her seem to be a likely nominee, if Young Adult does not get very good reviews, and one of the smaller contenders picks up steam, Cody could be on the outside facing in this time around.
The Contenders:
Martha Marcy May Marlene
Sundance hits tend to do well in this category, as it seems to be the only place where the Academy is willing to acknowledge edgier fare. It doesn't get much edgier than this film (oh wait, see the very next film I mention to show that it does) which will be difficult for the Academy to embrace. It's clearly not going to be this year's Winter's Bone, but if it stays in the playing field and support builds for its two stars - Lead Actress Elizabeth Olsen and Supporting Actor John Hawkes - then this screenplay could also be rewarded with a nomination. This is a film that would really benefit from a WGA nomination, so it is a shame it is not eligible. It will need a lot of critical support to keep it in the race.
Shame
Speaking of edgier fare, nothing says “stay away from me Oscars” like an NC-17 rating. But Fox Searchlight is treating this film's rating not as a scarlet letter but a badge of pride and a way to say “you should watch this movie because there's lots of boobs in it.” For independent films, any press is good press, and if Shame remains a conversation point for filmgoers heading into Oscar voting, it will have a leg up on much of its competition because it is getting so much attention. Shame is also ineligible for the WGA award, which is a blow to the film (that sounds dirty), making its path to the nomination even harder (wow, I need to stop doing that). But the real question is whether the Academy will embrace such a sexual film, or if they will just give it the shaft (okay, that one was intentional).
Win Win
If you want a break from the thoroughly depressing indies, here is something more lighthearted that could slip into the field. Tom McCarthy has become one of America's most respected independent writer/directors, and while his last film earned a Best Actor nomination, McCarthy has never been nominated for a Screenplay Oscar. He is looking to break that slump with his third feature, but will have an uphill battle. With much of its competition not in the running for the WGA, Win Win will need a nomination with that group to keep it competitive, and a good showing at the Globes would also be a big help. For any film released in the first half of the year, simply being remembered when voters fill out their ballots is half the battle, and if Win Win manages that, it will be in a good position.
The Dark Horses
50/50
Indie comedies shine in this category, and 50/50 seems like the kind of film the Academy would embrace. It has the comedy cred of an Apatow production, but is more grounded, emotional, and heartwarming than its raunchy brethren. But will bias against the film and its co-star Seth Rogen damage its chances? Will a category already packed with comedies have room for one more?
Beginners
Blah blah blah indie comedies Best Original Screenplay you get the point. Like Win Win, Beginners is at a disadvantage in that it was released several months ago. The difference between the two is that Beginners is also a contender in another category, Best Supporting Actor. Already being a name that voters are thinking about when they are filling out their ballots is always a bonus.
Margin Call
Overly topical films are a surprisingly tough sell for the Academy, but this well-reviewed drama about the financial crisis is getting the reviews to make it a contender. A cast full of big-name stars will help Margin Call get attention, but it got such a small release that voters will likely have forgotten about it by the end of the year, if they noticed it at all.
Rango
With Pixar's Cars 2 being a critical bomb, Paramount is looking to be the critically-acclaimed animated comedy in the race. Rango is the Animated Feature frontrunner, but it isn't clear whether the Academy will be able to take it seriously enough to merit a Screenplay mention.
The Tree of Life
The weirdest Oscar contender of the year by far is looking to steal a Best Director spot, and if it has enough support for that, a nomination for its screenplay is a possibility. Malick was nominated for his screenplay for The Thin Red Line, but that was also a Best Picture nominee. Considering its difficult-to-wrap-your-head-around structure, Tree of Life will be a very tough sell in this category.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Locks:
The Descendants
There are three kinds of Best Picture nominees: those defined by their acting (The King's Speech, The Fighter), those defined by their directing (Inception, Black Swan), and those defined by their screenplays. Typically, if a Best Picture nominee is getting accolades primarily for its screenplay, it will get awarded for it. It happened to Payne for Sideways, and it will likely be the case again this year. The Descendants seems to be a guaranteed Best Picture nominee, which sets up as the favorite in this race. Payne was overlooked for his screenplay for About Schmidt, in one of the odder snubs of the twothousandsees, but the love for The Descendants is matching that for Sideways, so unless one of the other Best Picture nominees builds up a ton of support, The Descendants is the film to beat here.
The Safe Bets:
Moneyball
Moneyball is another film that is defined by its screenplay and its lead actor, which means it could provide competition for The Descendants. Yet despite the fact that it is one of the best reviewed films of the year, Moneyball is spinning its wheels a bit in the Oscar support department, as most people are predicting it to be on the outside of the Best Picture race looking in. But considering its two writers are Screenwriting Royalty, it will easily take a nomination here as a consolation prize if it doesn't earn a Best Picture spot. True, Stephen Zaillian has been ignored for his last three films, and Sorkin only earned his first nomination for The Social Network, but with as much support as this film has, even without a Best Picture nomination it should feel comfortable here.
War Horse
Epics don't always do well here, as they can be more about spectacle than substance, but the last Steven Spielberg-directed Best Picture nominee to not be nominated for its screenplay was Raiders of the Lost Ark. Add to that the pedigree brought in by it being adapted from a Tony-award winning play, and it seems certain that if War Horse has the support to be a Best Picture nominee, it will find its way into this race as well. If it is not in the Best Picture race it will be a much tougher battle, although both screenwriters have been nominated for Oscars in the past. Basically, if this film has love, it will show up in a lot of categories, but if that love isn't there, this is the first category where it will suffer.
The Contenders:
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
You could claim that Extremely Loud has an advantage in this race considering the prestige and popularity of its source material, but try telling that to The Lovely Bones, The Kite Runner, and The Shipping News. Extremely Loud is still the big unknown in the race, and it seems like the deeper into the race we get, the more suspicion there is that it is going to be a bust. Of course, right now that suspicion is manifesting as Internet buzz, which means it might be having no effect on the mindset of the voters. If Extremely Loud is a hit, its screenplay is a sure thing, but right now its status in any category - especially one as connected to the Best Picture race as Adapted Screenplay is - can't be anything except a question mark.
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
This is one film that I could very easily see getting into this category even without an accompanying Best Picture nomination. I suspect that many Academy members will have read the source material, considering how huge a hit the series of novels is, which will predispose them to the film. Early reviews have been very positive, if not necessarily glowing, but the film is clearly very dark and difficult, which will give it a difficult path to the Best Picture. However, if the film is a commercial and critical hit - and it seems very likely that it will be - a Screenplay nomination seems likely as a consolation prize. Of course, if Dragon Tattoo does get a Best Picture nomination, then it will have a spot in this category waiting for it.
The Help
Remember when I talked about how most Best Picture nominees are loved for either their director, their screenplay, or their cast? Well The Help is definitely getting all of its attention for its cast. That means that it will have tough going in a very crowded category, in which it is competing against seven other serious Best Picture contenders. If The Academy loves this film as much as the public did, though, then no category is off the table, and while a win here is a bit of a stretch, a nomination is in play. But if The Help is this year's version of The Blind Side, then it will likely get a Picture Nomination and two or three acting nods, but will likely be absent here.
Hugo
Remember in that last paragraph when I referenced the thing I wrote earlier about the cast and the writers and the directors or whatever? Well Hugo is definitely a director's film. This is Scorsese's movie, his love letter to cinema, and when people talk about it, they talk about the spectacle, the beauty, the magic, but not so much the characters or the story. Like The Help, Hugo is contingent in this category on the extent of the Academy's love for it. A good sign of its potential to win Best Picture will be its presence here. Without a mention for its screenplay it will be looked at as an also-ran in the big race, but if it shows up in this category than it might be a serious threat to take home the gold.
Tinker, Tailor Soldier, Spy
On the cusp of a nomination in several major categories, Tinker Tailor can either get pushed over the edge or slide out of contention very quickly, depending on reviews, box office, and success with the precursors. In a weaker year, this film, which is adapted from an acclaimed novel by John LeCarre, could score a nomination here even if it were not in the running for Best Picture. But in a category with so many major players, this script - which is written by two virtually unknown writers - is tying its hopes to this film's success in the Best Picture race. If any film could take the field by storm it would be this one, but it could just as easily be a non-factor when it comes time to fill out ballots, especially since it's ineligible for the WGA, which won't help with visibility.
The Dark Horses:
A Dangerous Method
Cronenberg's A History of Violence was nominated in this category in 2005, but that film had much more buzz surrounding it than this one does. The very good reviews have focused more on the performances than the script, and the controversy racket has been taken by Shame. This movie will be forgotten without a lot of precursor help, but if it could sneak into any category, this would be it.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Will Potter mania amount to anything this Oscar season? It has no shot at a Director nomination or any acting nods, so if the Academy wants to reward it either on top of or in place of a Best Picture nomination, they might give a pat on the back to Steve Kloves, who has been in this category before and wrote seven of the eight Potter films.
The Ides of March
Is this film a serious Oscar contender? It is still a toss-up, although the Globes will likely play a deciding role in how much serious attention it gets. It's more of an actor's showcase than anything else, but if the Academy loves it the script will be getting some attention. We'll just have to wait and see.
Rampart
Oren Moverman's last film scored an Original Screenplay nomination, and he might be able to pull off a similar feat this time around. Rampart is a dark and violent film, far more so than The Messenger, but if it gets similarly glowing reviews the Academy may want to recognize it in some fashion. It'll either be here or Best Actor if it happens, but both categories are crowded.
Best Original Screenplay:
1. The Artist
2. Midnight in Paris
3. Bridesmaids
4. Young Adult
5. Shame
6. Martha Marcy May Marlene
7. Win Win
8. 50/50
Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. The Descendants
2. Moneyball
3. War Horse
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
6. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
7. The Help
8. Hugo