Oscar 2012: Letters to Santa
By Tom Houseman
December 24, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
There are some actors we don't need to talk about until the nominations are announced. Do you need me to explain to you why George Clooney, Meryl Streep, Christopher Plummer or Octavia Spencer are going to be nominated? If you do you clearly haven't been paying attention to the race at all this year. So I'm going to skip over the people who are definitely in, and focus on the ones on the bubble, who legitimately could go either way. What are all of those contenders asking Santa for this Christmas? Let's find out.
Best Actor:
(Sure Things: George Clooney, Jean Dujardin, Brad Pitt)
Demian Bichir is asking Santa to put a screener of A Better Life is at the top of every voter's stocking
Fortunately for Bichir, the SAG tends to match up with the Academy on Best Actor almost 100%. Unfortunately, the SAG nomination is the only precursor that has given Bichir any love. A Better Life got almost no attention when it was released in theaters, which means that unlike with higher profile contenders, Academy voters will have to go out of their way to see it. Will enough of them see it, and love it, to get him in? Bichir could travel the same route that Richard Jenkins did for his nomination for The Visitor: powerful performance in small indie movie that builds buzz thanks largely to a SAG nomination. It's worked before, so it might work again.
Leonardo DiCaprio is asking Santa to wipe the Academy's memory of everything about J. Edgar except for his performance
True, there is not a lot of love for Clint Eastwood's latest, but it seems that virtually everybody is in agreement on the excellence of DiCaprio's performance. Being nominated by both the SAG and the Golden Globes means you're pretty much a shoe-in. His only drawback is that his film, unlike the films of the three actors who are definitely in, is not going to be a Best Picture nominee.
Michael Fassbender is asking Santa for some non-puritanical Academy members
Unlike Bichir, Fassbender doesn't have to hope that people pay attention to his film. The controversy that Shame has generated has been enormously helpful for the film, both at the box-office and for the Oscars. Critics have been raving about the film and it has appeared on several top 10 lists, with more than one critic group calling out Fassbender for Best Actor. Add a SAG nomination to that and Fassbender is almost assured of a nomination, but without it, there are still questions. Mainly, is the film too controversial and sexual for the Academy?
Ryan Gosling is asking Santa to multiply, not divide, his support
One of the surprises of the precursors this year is how often Drive is showing up on critics' lists. While not a lot of that love is spreading to Gosling, it could help him in the Best Actor race. But now that Jessica Chastain has settled on one film to get all of her attention, the actor who is in trouble of splitting his votes is Gosling. Already at a disadvantage without a SAG nomination, Gosling will have to hope that every Academy member who loves him either loves him for The Ides of March or Drive (Crazy, Stupid, Love is kind of a non-starter). While he got a Globe nomination for Ides, he got a Broadcast Critics from Drive, which means he probably won't get an Oscar nomination for either.
Woody Harrelson is asking Santa for a late surge of momentum
Generally there is only room for one - at most two - stars of indie dramas in a category like Best Actor. If your film is not in the running for Best Picture and you are not a big star, your chances are very slim. Harrelson is a bigger star than either Demian Bichir or Michael Shannon, but with Shannon getting all the critical love and Bichir being a SAG nominee, both of them have the edge over him. Harrelson's nomination for The Messenger followed nomination by both the Globes and the SAG, so it seems like this year he is already out of the race.
Gary Oldman is asking Santa to rally the British voters behind him
It seems that with every new precursor that gets announced, the chances of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy sink a little bit, and with it Gary Oldman's hopes of getting his first Oscar nomination. This film has not been getting any attention, and Oldman seems to have been completely ignored by every group. Considering his performance is not terribly juicy and doesn't scream Oscar, Oldman is practically out of contention. But if Tinker, Tailor is a hit at the BAFTAs (the British and therefore lesser Academy), it could show that the British members of the Academy will do whatever it takes to get Oldman nominated. Even then it's a long shot.
Michael Shannon is asking Santa to convince Academy voters to pay more attention to the critics than to the SAG or the HFPA
The critics seem to have rallied around Shannon as their actor of choice this year, and he is probably second to Jean Dujardin in number of critics circle Best Actor awards. But for a very difficult, very small release, Shannon was relying on some love from the biggest precursors to push him to the front of the pack. But none of that love came, with both the SAG and the Globes ignoring Shannon. That's a really difficult setback for Shannon to overcome, so he has to hope that there's a block of voters who really love Take Shelter.
Best Actress:
(Sure Things: Viola Davis, Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams)
Glenn Close is asking Santa to turn back time to when she was the favorite
Best Actress used to be a two-horse race between Meryl Streep and Glenn Close. How Close longs for those days. Between the mediocre reviews that Albert Nobbs has received and the thorough lack of precursor love for her, Close plummeted in the ranks for Best Actress contenders. Fortunately, her fall was broken by the Globes and the SAG. Receiving those nominations shows that Close is still likely to score an Oscar nod, but she is much more vulnerable than she was a month ago.
Rooney Mara is asking Santa to give The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo a Best Picture nomination
Mara is in basically the same position she was in at the start of the race, by which I mean totally reliant on love for her film to push her into awards contention. She has been holding steady throughout the precursors, partially because some groups didn't get a chance to see the film before they made their picks. But the SAG snub left her vulnerable, and Tilda Swinton and Charlize Theron are both gaining momentum much faster than Mara is. But if voters like Dragon Tattoo enough to give it a Best Picture nomination it will give Mara a huge boost, making it much easier for her to get a place in this category.
Elizabeth Olsen is asking Santa to brainwash voters
It seems that Olsen's hopes of being this year's Jennifer Lawrence are fading quickly. Martha Marcy May Marlene is not this year's indie darling, having been overshadowed by The Tree of Life and Take Shelter. Being ignored by both the SAG and the Globes is pretty much the death knell to Olsen. But will being the youngest actress in a field of mostly veterans help her at all? At this point her only shot is that a lot of voters want some young blood in the field, but even then they are more likely to go for Mara than Olsen.
Tilda Swinton is asking Santa to make sure voters keep talking about her
You'd better hope for your sake that Swinton doesn't get nominated, otherwise these “talk about” jokes will keep coming. It shocked a lot of people when both the SAG and the HFPA nominated Swinton for Best Actress, jumping her from dark horse to frontrunner very quickly. But We Need to Talk About Kevin is a very small film, and one that will likely be too dark and disturbing for some voters. If not enough voters end up seeing the film, and not enough of the ones who do see it get behind it, Swinton might be left out this year.
Charlize Theron is asking Santa to convince the voters that they like her, they really like her
In a field where all of the nominees tend to be sympathetic protagonists, there are a number of actresses here that are hard to root for, but Theron's alcoholic, stuck-up attempted adulterer might be the least likeable of them all. Will that make it too difficult for voters to support her? Will being the only actress in a genuine comedy be a benefit or a drawback to her chances of being nominated? She was a shoe-in for a Globe nomination, but would have really benefited from a SAG nod. Is being snubbed there a harbinger of what is to come, or will the love and respect for Theron overcome the obstacles she is facing and get her into the field?
Best Supporting Actor:
(Sure Things: Christopher Plummer, Albert Brooks, Kenneth Branagh)
Armie Hammer is asking Santa for the opposite of what Leo is asking for
Clearly there are some people who really like J. Edgar, or are just big fans of Eastwood (we're all looking at you, NBR). If enough of those people can rally behind the film, and not just Dicaprio's performance, then Hammer could find himself sneaking into the field. Clearly he has some support, as he was able to get a SAG nomination. Still, considering that is basically the only precursor love he has gotten, he is definitely a long shot.
Jonah Hill is asking Santa for all of the love and support that Brad Pitt doesn't need
Going into the race there were some questions as to whether or not the Academy could get behind a film as esoteric and depressing as Moneyball. Those questions aren't being asked any more because of the mountains of support that Moneyball has gotten from various precursors. But will Brad Pitt get so much attention that Jonah Hill gets overlooked? Hill's performance isn't as flashy as those of some of his competitors, but getting nominated by both the Globes and the SAG is a very good sign.
Viggo Mortenson is asking Santa to remind voters that there's another sex-focused film besides Shame
Mortenson's Golden Globe nomination was a big surprise, because despite the critical acclaim for his performance as Sigmund Freud in A Dangerous Method, he had gotten virtually no precursor love. But Viggo is popular, and this wouldn't be the first time that he would be the sole representative of his David Cronenberg-directed film at the Oscars (he was nominated for Best Actor for Eastern Promises). But A Dangerous Method has gotten so little attention this season that it will be difficult for Mortenson to build a lot of support. He is still very much a long shot.
Nick Nolte is asking Santa to invoke in voters a sense of nostalgia
Nolte is well past his prime, and his days of stardom are behind him, but he is still well-known and respected in Hollywood. Very often these Hollywood legends can get attention for playing parts that highlight how old and past their prime they are, which is what Nolte did in Warrior. It worked well enough to get him a SAG nomination and a Broadcast Film Critics nomination. Usually there is one older veteran who gets nominated here (remember Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild) and Nolte seems to be in a prime position for that spot.
Patton Oswalt is asking Santa for basically the same thing Charlize Theron is
It is not uncommon for an actor to be nominated in supporting without having the lead in their film nominated as well, but it always helps to be able to ride the support of your star. In Oswalt's case it is crucial, especially because I find it unlikely that both Hill and Oswalt will get nominated (notice that Oswalt was not nominated for the Globes or the SAG, while Hill was snubbed by the BFCA, which picked Oswalt). Right now Oswalt is running behind Hill, but if Theron gets nominated, his chances improve.
Max von Sydow is asking Santa to fill voters with love for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Things are not looking good for von Sydow, who was once a frontrunner in this race. Because of its very late release, Extremely Loud was not seen by many precursor voting groups. While this hasn't hurt films like Million Dollar Baby and True Grit, this film is not getting the kind of reviews that those did (it is sitting with a rotten 50% on Rotten Tomatoes). While it is unlikely that von Sydow will be nominated if Extremely Loud is not a Best Picture nominee, he can't be written off just yet.
Best Supporting Actress:
(Sure Things: Shaileen Woodley, Octavia Spencer)
Jessica Chastain is asking Santa to help voters forget that she was in Take Shelter
All of the confusion over what film Jessica Chastain will be noticed for has settled down, with virtually every group that has singled out one performance of hers going for The Help. Still, there is clearly a lot of love for Take Shelter, and this is one case where a lead getting nominated will hurt the supporting actor. Chastain is sitting very comfortably right now, but she is the most vulnerable of the three frontrunners.
Melissa McCarthy is asking Santa to give voters a sense of humor
When Bridesmaids became the surprise hit of the summer, people started talking about Melissa McCarthy as a potential Oscar nominee. With a BFCA nomination and SAG nomination, McCarthy is poised to take the field by storm, especially with Bridesmaids looking likely to get a Screenplay nomination to boot. But there are already three comedic actresses likely to be nominated (Spencer, Woodley, and Chastain). Will that be too much comedy for the Academy to handle? Will they need to ditch McCarthy in favor of a more serious actress? Probably not, but it's something to consider.
Janet McTeer is asking Santa to disassociate her from the movie she's in
Yes, Albert Nobbs has been getting wildly mediocre reviews, but for some reason that hasn't slowed McTeer down from building a lot of momentum. Getting a SAG and a Globes nod puts her in a very good position to be nominated for Oscar. But McTeer is the only contender in this race whose film is not getting glowing reviews, which leaves her vulnerable. If there is a lot more support for either Shame or Coriolanus than anybody realized, McTeer is the most likely to get hurt by it.
Carey Mulligan is asking Santa to make room for one more young star
Who would have thought that the chick from The Secret Life of the American Teenager would be an Oscar nominee but not the star of An Education, who was in two of the best-reviewed movies of the year? The BFCA nomination for Shame, plus a smattering of critics awards, has kept Mulligan in the running for her performance in Shame, but this category is practically locked with the five frontrunners in place, and Mulligan will likely get locked out. Still, as I said, a huge push of support for Shame could help this popular young actress get in, likely at the expense of Janet McTeer.
Vanessa Redgrave is asking Santa to tell voters to respect their elders
If there was a support group for previous Oscar favorites who have plummeted out of contention, Redgrave would be keeping von Sydow, Oldman and Close good company. Being ignored by the Globes, SAG, and the BFCA is a hard setback for anyone to overcome, especially considering Coriolanus is getting no buzz right now. Still, if anybody can magically make it into the race after being ignored by every major precursor, it is a beloved veteran like Redgrave. Plus, considering how young the rest of the field is, the Academy may want to mix things up with some older blood. Redgrave is not out of this race yet.
So while Santa is checking his list to see who's been naughty and who's been nice (my guess is sex addiction would get you on the naughty list, while tricking a former employer into eating poop could go either way), here are my predictions for all of the acting categories.
Best Actor:
George Clooney- The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio- J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin- The Artist
Michael Fassbender- Shame
Brad Pitt- Moneyball
Alternate: Demian Bichir- A Better Life
Best Actress:
Viola Davis- The Help
Glenn Close- Albert Nobbs
Meryl Streep- The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton- We Need to Talk about Kevin
Michelle Williams- My Week with Marilyn
Alternate: Charlize Theron- Young Adult
Best Supporting Actor:
Kenneth Branagh- My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks- Drive
Jonah Hill- Moneyball
Nick Nolte- Warrior
Christopher Plummer- Beginners
Alternate: Max von Sydow- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Best Supporting Actress:
Jessica Chastain- The Help
Melissa McCarthy- Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer- Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer- The Help
Shaileen Woodley- The Descendants
Alternate: Vanessa Redgrave- Coriolanus