The Twelve Days of Box Office
By David Mumpower
December 27, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol finished in first place for the sixth consecutive day. Its $16.7 million performance on Monday is impressive in and of itself. Still, I want to put the number in perspective. On Saturday, ostensibly the best box office day each week, MI4 earned $6.2 million. This circles back to our previous comments regarding the Twelve Days of Box Office. Independent of the day of the week Christmas Eve falls upon, the behavior remains the same. North Americans treat this as a travel/celebration day with the net result being the box office deflation of all titles in release. On Christmas Day, box office rises to larger than ordinary levels. December 26th is regularly the peak box office of the December 20th-January 2nd period.
In the specific instance of Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol, the action flick has demonstrated predictable behavior thus far. Upon its expansion last week, it set a level of $8.9 million for its daily revenue. On Thursday, there was a dip to $6.4 million before resurging to $9.7 million last Friday. Then, it fell to $6.2 million on the negative box office day of Christmas Eve before attaining $13.6 million on Sunday. That was the title’s best day of revenue thus far, but yesterday’s $16.7 million usurped that title by 23%. The end result is that MI4 has gone from $17.1 million at the end of its IMAX-exclusive run last Tuesday to $78.6 million. With regards to the rest of the week, it should fluctuate with similar daily numbers to those from last Friday. The same is true of the other major titles in release.
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows earned $10.8 million. This performance is its best since Saturday, December 17th, its second day in theaters. Even more impressively, it is more than last Friday and Saturday’s combined revenue of $10.6 million ($6.75 million on Friday and $3.89 million on Saturday). Sherlock Holmes increased 11.7% from Sunday to Monday, remarkably one of the smallest gains in the top 10 for the day (remember that growth is harder for titles with larger revenue).
One of the two titles in the top ten to drop from Sunday to Monday was War Horse. It fell from $7.5 million on Sunday to $7.0 million on Monday. Note that it had an excuse as we discussed last week. Almost every title released during the Twelve Days of Box Office falls on its second day in release. I would not have been shocked if War Horse had avoided this fate since December 26th is such a popular box office day, but this moderate decline is the expected outcome. With $14.5 million in the bank after two days, War Horse is doing quite well but its final box office fate is yet to be determined.
With regards to the other major releases, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked is still performing like a piece of chip. Still, its $6.9 million on Monday represents its second best day in theaters thus far, surpassing even its opening day total of $6.7 million. For a movie that is so clearly struggling, that box office bump is much needed good news. Its running tally of $56.5 million is starting to look respectable.
The news is even better for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. After an opening weekend that created a consensus opinion that this was not a title to release around Christmas, David Fincher’s latest drama earned $6.7 million. To put this in perspective, this is a full million dollars more than it had earned on any of its first five days in theaters. Stating the obvious, no film should have its best day on its sixth day in theaters. That is simply not the way box office behavior ordinarily works. In case you are wondering if there is another recent holiday example of such odd box office behavior, the answer is yes. Avatar’s best day in theaters, $28.3 million, did not occur until its ninth day in theaters.
The biggest winner yesterday in terms of performance relative to established behavior is The Adventures of Tintin. After falling in the range of $2.3-$3.7 million over its first five days, Steven Spielberg’s second film in the top ten spiked to a whopping $6.4 million. This number is almost triple (!) its opening day tally of $2.3 million. And just like that, the movie switches from a modest (bordering on pathetic) $4.7 million after two days to $24.1 million after six days. Also, a movie should never earn $1.7 million more on its sixth day than it did in its first two days of released combined. That’s just common sense. This is a blueprint example of the way December holiday box office trending inflates all the titles in release, not just the major ones.
We Bought a Zoo has behaved similarly. After earning $4.9 million during its first two days in release, BOP fave Cameron Crowe’s latest release increased to $4.5 million on Sunday then maxed out with $5.2 million on Monday. It has effectively tripled its domestic box office over the last 48 hours. And the titles in ninth and tenth place, New Year’s Eve and The Descendants, earned more yesterday than they did on Friday and Saturday combined. New Year’s Eve managed $1.8 million on Friday/Saturday but spiked to $1.9 million yesterday. The Descendants earned $1.0 million Friday/Saturday but was at $1.1 million on Monday. This will be the only time in several years (until 2016, to be exact) where several titles in release earn more on a Monday than during the totality of Friday and Saturday. It is otherwise incomprehensible.
Of course, some films simply cannot be helped. The Darkest Hour debuted to $3.0 million on Sunday but fell significantly to $2.1 million on Monday. Yes, this was also a Christmas Day release, so a Monday decline is not shocking, but a 30% drop on arguably the best box office date of the calendar year is problematic. The Darkest Hour is only two days into its release and already looking as if it’s done. It will be lucky to recoup half of its $30 million production budget.