Oscar 2012: Sing For Your Oscar
By Tom Houseman
January 4, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Go ahead, name an original song written for a movie released in 2011. Did you name a song from The Muppets? No, I'm not psychic, it's just that there were so few memorable songs from movies last year. Most years there are a couple of songs that get a lot of attention, either because they are from high-profile films or because they are by high-profile performers. Sometimes the song itself is the story, as when “It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp” won. But this year only one of the likely Best Picture nominees has a memorable song, and all of the other contenders are either from films that were mostly ignored or from films that will be hard for the Academy to take seriously.
There are three kinds of Best Original Song nominees. There are musical numbers, which usually have a pretty easy time getting in (Dreamgirls and Enchanted clogged this category) especially since the songs have to be seen by voters in the context they were used in the film. This puts another type of nominee at a disadvantage: ballads. While Diane Warren used to be ridiculous in this category for her heartfelt, emotionally wrought ballads, most of those are used during the closing credits of films. It is difficult to get too worked up about a song just by hearing it while watching over rolling credits, so unless the song is from a high-profile film it will have difficulty getting in.
The last kind of nominee is the upbeat pop song. These types of songs are usually by famous bands or singers and are featured in popular films, probably during some kind of wacky montage. These songs often have difficulty getting in, though; for every “Accidentally in Love” from Shrek 2 there is a “THAT SONG” from Chicken Little, which is basically the same song but got no attention. A lot of luck is involved in this category, more so than probably any other. Also, sometimes they only nominate three or four songs, which is weird.
That being said, here are the most legitimate contenders, all of which fit into one of those three song types. Sometimes the songwriters will throw a curveball and nominate something from a foreign film (The Chorus and The Motorcycle Diaries being recent example of this habit), but as I haven't seen or heard of any of the foreign films with songs on the 37-song shortlist this year, I'm not gonna pretend that I have any idea about their chances. Let's just all pretend they don't exist.
Ballads:
The Living Proof - The Help
I am going to categorically state right now that there are no sure things in this category this year (get it, categorically, 'cause it's a category? I'm funny) but if there were any sure things - but there aren't - this would be the closest thing to a sure thing that there is. But, and I can't stress this enough, it's not. Yes, being from a Best Picture nominee gives this song a big advantage, as whatever the heck that song from Crash was can attest to, and yes, it is a ballad by Mary J. Blige from an inspirational movie about race and toilets and stuff. But none of that guarantees it a spot, especially since it plays over the closing credits. Remember when everyone was predicting that A Million Voices from Hotel Rwanda was going to get nominated? Or that Bruce Springsteen song from The Wrestler? Yes, this song has a better chance than any other to get nominated, but that still doesn't put its chances much better than “pretty good.”
Lay Your Head Down - Albert Nobbs
Albert Nobbs has received wildly mediocre reviews, but that probably doesn't matter here. If there is enough respect for Glenn Close to get her a Best Actress nomination (and it seems like there is), then there is enough to get her a Best Original Song nomination. She co-wrote the song from this movie, which is performed by Sinead O'Connor, and I don't know if it plays during the credits or over the film, because almost nobody has seen this movie. Still, the songwriters are probably old enough to know who Sinead O'Connor is (and I apologize if you know who Sinead O'Connor is and are inferring from this that I think you're really, really old), which will also play to this song's advantage.
Love Builds a Garden - Gnomeo and Juliet
Gnomeo and Juliet didn't get a lot of attention from the over-seven set, but any time Elton John writes a song for a movie it is going to get noticed. This guy could have probably had this category renamed The Elton John Best Original Song Award in 1994, when he received three nominations for his work on The Lion King. Still, when pop stars get nominated for writing ballads in animated films, it is usually for better-known films. Is Gnomeo and Juliet on the same level of Tarzan, or even The Emperor's New Groove? No, but John is still a force in this race.
The Keeper - Machine Gun Preacher
I don't think anybody saw this movie, which was a Christian-themed action flick starring Gerard Butler. Really the only aspect that got any attention was Chris Cornell's song. If voters don't actually see the movie it is unlikely that just seeing the song playing over some footage will be enough to get them to nominate, unless the song is integral to the film, which this song doesn't seem to be. There is also surprisingly little crossover between the Globes and the Oscars in this category, but considering how few precursors have a song category, any time a song gets nominated anywhere it belongs in the conversation for the Oscars.
Think You Can Wait - Win Win
Indie songs by indie bands in indie movies have a long history at the Oscars. There was Elliot Smith's nomination for his song from Good Will Hunting, and... okay, so that's about it. This song, this band, and this film have a lot of very vocal supporters, but how much attention will it get from the Academy? I would wager not much. Remember, Elliot Smith was already pretty famous when he wrote Miss Misery, for a Best Picture nominee, before songs had to be heard over the same footage they were played over during the movie. That's a lot of advantages that The National's song doesn't have.
Shelter - Take Shelter
It's a bad sign that I don't remember the song from this indie darling, and that I've never heard of Ben Nichols, who wrote and performs it. But the people who love Take Shelter (and on the Internet there are quite a few of them) are plugging this song's chances, although their motives might be getting the film more attention rather than accurately assessing the song's chances. I suppose if there is a lot of support for Take Shelter it could help this song, but considering that lead Michael Shannon probably won't be nominated, I can't see this song being the film's only nomination.
Pop Songs:
Hello Hello - Gnomeo and Juliet
Which Gnomeo and Juliet song has a better chance of being nominated? Typically the ballads have an easier time getting in than the pop songs. However, this pop song playing over a montage bares a strong resemblance to “Accidentally in Love,” and Elton John's street cred will help him out here. This is the more memorable of the two songs, and the idea of Lady Gaga performing at the Oscars (she sang the song with John in the film) might be too much for anyone to resist.
So Long - Winnie the Pooh
Yes, this movie was a musical, but I don't see numbers like “The Backson Song” and “A Pooh Bear Takes Care of his Tummy” getting recognized by the Academy, no matter how adorable they are (by "they" I mean the songs, not the Academy members, who are not that adorable). The only song from this movie that is a contender is the credits song, which was written and performed by Zooey Deschanel. It does play over the credits, but those credits featured Winnie the Pooh and friends, which might ignite a flame of nostalgia in the hearts of voters. Still, it's a very slight, kiddy song, which probably will not play well with voters, especially since its unlikely that many of them saw the film.
The Greatest Song I've Ever Heard - Pom Wonderful Presents The Greatest Movie Ever Sold
I'm putting this song on here to point out the futility of trying to predict this category. This is a pretty fun song from a pretty fun movie, played during the film, by a successful band. And if I left this song off the list of legitimate contenders, nobody would bat an eyelash. It has an almost zero chance of getting nominated, which is not that much less than the chances of pretty much every other song in this category. This film was largely overlooked when it was released, but there is a precedent for songs from documentaries being nominated... although this is no I Need to Wake Up.
Collision of Worlds - Cars 2
Pixar films are as close to sure things as you can get for Best Song contenders, as any of their films that features a song usually gets in. However, most of those songs were written by Randy Newman (Peter Gabriel wrote the song for Wall-E) and all of those movies were beloved. Cars 2 got very little love when it was released, and isn't even a sure thing for Best Animated Film. And while Brad Paisley and Robbie Williams are both respected artists in their genres, neither of them have Randy Newman-level cred with the Academy. I wouldn't be surprised if this song got nominated, but I'd be less surprised if it didn't.
Musicals
Life's a Happy Song/Man or Muppet/Pictures in My Head- The Muppets
As the only wide-release musical in 2011, The Muppets should be in a good position to score at least one nomination in this category. The most obvious comparison to a recent film is Enchanted, which took over the category in 2007 with three nominations, although it didn't win. So which Muppets song is most likely to be nominated? Pictures in My Head is the ballad, and the most nostalgia-inspired of the three, which gives it a good chance. There's no love song in the movie, which is the kind of song most easily nominated, but Pictures is the closest to that kind. However, while it's possible that all three songs will be nominated, I could also see the film being snubbed completely. The guys who are usually nominated for songs from musicals are revered names like Randy Newman, Alan Menken, and Stephen Schwartz. Bret Mckenzie, Jason Segel, and Christophe Beck don't have the level of respect that those legends have.
Star Spangled Man - Captain America: The First Avenger
Speaking of Alan Menken, he is the man behind the most interesting wild card in this year's race. Captain America was not a musical (sadly) but this is essentially a musical number in the film, with dancing girls and all, and is as integrated into the film as any of the Muppets songs are. But when was the last time a song like this nominated in this category? Looking back through the last couple of decades the only remotely similar song is Blame Canada from the South Park movie, but that was far more satirical than this one, which is only lightly poking fun at George Cohan's patriotic anthems. If the voters are willing to step out of their comfort zone they are likely to nominate this song, but it is never safe to assume that any Academy voter is going to step out of their comfort zone.
So now that we've broken down all of the contenders I assume that you are an expert at predicting Best Original Song. That being said, here are what I can confidently call my not totally random guesses, which is as close as I can get to predictions in this year. Not knowing how many songs are going to be nominated makes this even more fun to predict, so here is the best I can do right now:
1. The Living Proof- The Help
2. Pictures in My Head- The Muppets
3. Lay Your Head Down- Albert Nobbs
4. Hello Hello- Gnomeo and Juliet
5. Star Spangled Man- Captain America: The First Avenger
6. The Keeper- Machine Gun Preacher
7. Life's a Happy Song- The Muppets
8. Man or Muppet- The Muppets
9. Collision of Worlds- Cars 2
10. Love Builds a Garden- Gnomeo and Juliet