Oscar 2012: Predicting the Golden Globes
By Tom Houseman
January 14, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com

She can't believe what she's about to whisper in his ear!
When it comes to predicting who's going to win, the Golden Globes can be very tricky, and that's really the only way I can phrase it without using lots and lots of expletives. Why are the Globes so hard to predict? Mostly it's because every time you think you think of a rule by which they vote, they break it. The Academy has a bunch of rules that you know they are going to stick with year in and year out (Best Picture nominees typically win in the screenplay categories; any film not nominated for Film Editing won't win Best Picture; Greg Russell will never win a Sound Mixing Oscar; etc.) and knowing those rules makes it much easier to predict what will win in certain categories.

The Globes also have some of those rules, but instead of being helpful they are often misleading, because the Globes are far more likely to break their rules than the Academy is. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association spent the better part of the last decade proving that their Best Picture - Drama winner will be the more traditional film. That's why Brokeback Mountain beat Crash, The Aviator beat Million Dollar Baby, Atonement beat No Country for Old Men, and Avatar beat The Hurt Locker. So, last year the obvious Best Picture - Drama choice was The King's Speech, because everyone thought the HFPA would be a bunch of old fuddy-duddies who wouldn't be hip to The Social Network's lingo. Except they were, and The Social Network swept the Globes.

Which brings me to my next point: does the HFPA block vote, or do they prefer to spread the wealth? My instincts tell me they like to spread the wealth, but that might be because the first year I was following the Oscars was 2002, when The Hours won Picture - Drama and Actress - Drama, Gangs of New York won Director and Song, and About Schmidt won Actor - Drama and Screenplay. But when you look at their history you will see that since 2002, four films have won four Golden Globes, which is remarkable considering that the most any film can win is nine.

This means that, unfortunately, it is very difficult to predict the Globes based on their trends, so we have to actually look at the nominees. I hate doing that, so I'll do the best I can with history on my side. Are there any films that look like they have sweep potential this year? I wouldn't be surprised if The Descendants won Picture, Actor, and Screenplay, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it only won Screenplay. The Artist seems like a sure thing for Best Picture - Musical/Comedy, but can it win Best Director or Best Score? There are several categories that could go either way, which certainly makes things more fun, but also much, much more frustrating.

Best Foreign Language Film

The heavy favorite in this category is the Iranian drama A Separation, which has been lauded by several critics groups and is also the current favorite to win the Oscar for this category. But there is a wild card this year, and it is Angelina Jolie. American films have been nominated in this category in the past, with mixed results. Marc Forster's The Kite Runner lost in 2007, and Clint Eastwood's Letters from Iwo Jima won in 2006, beating Mel Gibson's Apocalypto among others. Jolie's film, In the Land of Blood and Honey, is a politically motivated film, which usually plays well with the HFPA, but it has not gotten the glowing reviews that A Separation has. I think that the HFPA really just wanted to ensure that Jolie would show up, but that they will give the award Agshar Farhadi for A Separation.

Best Animated Feature

This is a two horse race, although really it's more like a one lizard, one French kid with a dog race. Rango has gotten pretty much every accolade available for animated films this year, but with Spielberg in the race, Gore Verbinski's film is not the sure thing it would otherwise be. Will nostalgia be a factor in picking The Adventures of Tintin over Rango? I could certainly see an upset happen here, but I'm sticking with the lizard as my pick.

Best Original Song

This is one category where history is very much on our side, as there is such a painfully obvious trend here that it is impossible to ignore. Of the last 20 winners for Best Song, 18 of them were heartfelt, emotional ballads. The only two that weren't were by Bob Dylan and Mick Jagger. Elton John might be able to pull off a win here, but I believe it comes down to The Help vs. Albert Nobbs. When in doubt, go with the Best Picture nominee, so I think The Help will win here.

Best Original Score

It is rare for there to be any category in any awards show where I wouldn't be surprised by any of the nominees being announced as the winner. Okay, so I would do a double take if the score for W.E. won, but beyond that there are four very strong contenders. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross won here last year for The Social Network, so clearly there is love for them, but might winning so recently turn voters off to awarding them again? Also, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo does not have the support that The Social Network does, which will make it hard, but not impossible, for them to win again.

That leaves two revered composers working for revered directors and one guy nobody's ever heard of. Howard Shore and John Williams are both multiple-time winners, Shore reteaming with Scorsese, who directed Shore's last Globe-winning film, The Aviator, and Williams of course working with Spielberg, who produced Memoirs of a Geisha, which won Williams his last Globe. But Ludovic Bource, who is such an unknown that he doesn't have an English Wikipedia page (he has one in French, though) produced one of the most memorable, diverse scores of last year, for the silent film The Artist. This is a category where the HFPA gets creative, awarding more eclectic work from films like The Up, Slumdog Millionaire, Frida and Moulin Rouge!, which makes it seem like The Artist is the favorite here. Still, if they decide to go for something more sweeping and epic, Hugo could very easily take this award.

Best Screenplay

This is the easiest category to predict if you're going solely from the history of the Golden Globes. When Alexander Payne makes a movie, he wins a Golden Globe for his screenplay. He got one for About Schmidt, he got one for Sideways, and there's no reason to think he won't get one for The Descendants. Could Moneyball or Midnight in Paris steal it from him? Of course they could, and I wouldn't blame you if you picked the latter to win the award. But why pick against Payne when you don't have to?

Best Supporting Actor

This is the category in which the HFPA has been most likely to play it safe. They go with the popular pick; even in years when the Academy gets unpredictable (awarding Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy), the HFPA stays with the safer choice (Arkin wasn't even nominated that year). This year there is safety with Christopher Plummer, who is the heavy favorite for the Oscar for his role in Beginners. Might the HFPA throw us a curveball? If they do so it will probably be Albert Brooks for his role in Drive. I don't really see anyone else having a chance.

Best Supporting Actress

Any time there is a frontrunner in the supporting categories it makes a lot of sense to pick him or her to win. Right now there is no reason to predict against Octavia Spencer, as she has been the frontrunner in this category and The Help is a Best Picture nominee. Could a wave of support for The Artist push Berenice Bejo to an upset? It's possible, but there's no evidence to suggest it's going to happen.

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy

This category hasn't been this easy to predict since Joaquin Phoenix won for Walk the Line. This group is mostly filler, a couple of guys needed to keep Juan Dujardin from feeling lonely while he waits to pick up his award. And yes, this is without a doubt his award.

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy

Could an argument be made for picking Charlize Theron or Kristen Wiig over Michelle Williams? Probably, but it wouldn't be a very good one. Williams is the clear favorite for her role in My Week with Marilyn, and considering the film is also a Best Picture nominee, there is no reason to think she won't win.

Best Actor - Drama

This is, along with Director and Score, one of the most wide open categories this year, with three legitimate contenders. George Clooney is extremely popular, as is evidenced by the fact that he has been nominated for screenwriting and directing in addition to his nomination here. He has won two Golden Globes for film acting, most recently in 2005 for Syriana. Plus he is in a film that the HFPA clearly loves, working with a filmmaker the HFPA adores. Brad Pitt is almost as beloved as Clooney, and is clearly more overdue for a win, as he hasn't won a Globe since 1995. Moneyball has almost as many nominations as The Descendants does, so clearly both films have a lot of supporters.

Then there is Leonardo Dicaprio, whose film is not a Best Picture nominee, but whose performance is much flashier than Clooney's or Pitt's. He is playing a real person, he has an accent, and he ages significantly during the course of the film. All of these men have won - but not too recently - and are frequent nominees, and I couldn't argue against any of them, except Dicaprio's film is clearly not as popular as Clooney's or Pitt's. If the HFPA wants to block vote this year, Clooney will be part of a wave of support for The Descendants. If they want to spread the love, look for Pitt or Dicaprio to win while Descendants wins Screenplay and something else wins Picture. It could go any direction, but for the sake of choosing, I have a good feeling about Clooney.

Best Actress - Drama

This is a two woman show, with Meryl Streep's performance as Margaret Thatcher up against Viola Davis's role in The Help. I am always hesitant to pick against Streep, but I feel the need to this time. For starters, Davis has the advantage of being from a Best Picture nominee. Secondly, many feel that this is Streep's year to finally win another Oscar, since she hasn't won since 1982. However, she is not similarly overdue for a Golden Globe, having won Best Actress in 2009 and 2006. Viola Davis is a rising star who plays a very sympathetic character in The Help, while Streep plays what can most nicely be called an anti-hero. I do think that Streep will win the SAG award and the Oscar, but the Globe will go to Davis.

Best Director

For the last three years the winner for Best Director was from the film that won Best Picture - Drama, but from the six years before that (not counting 2007 when the Director winner's film was foreign and therefore ineligible for the main Best Picture) only two of the Best Director winners had their films win the big prize. Since there is no favorite to win Best Picture - Drama, I think the Globes will mix it up this year. Martin Scorsese has won two Golden Globes in the last ten years, so I suspect they will not be looking to award him again. Alexander Payne has never won Best Director, so he might be thought of as overdue, but the HFPA typically gives this award to visually impressive films (Avatar, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) or to very dark films (The Social Network, Million Dollar Baby). The Descendants is certainly not dark, and even its most ardent supporters wouldn't call it visually impressive. No, I think this year the award will go to Michel Hazanivicius for The Artist. True it's been more than a decade since a comedy won this award, but there is a lot of love for The Artist, and the field is open enough this year to let a comedy ride its wave of support to this award.

Best Picture - Musical/Comedy

Have I made it clear yet how much of a cakewalk I think this will be for The Artist? Good, then let's take a break for a little history lesson:

The cakewalk was originally a 19th-century dance, invented by African-Americans in the antebellum South. It was intended to satirize the stiff ballroom promenades of white plantation owners, who favored the rigidly formal dances of European high-society. Cakewalking slaves lampooned these stuffy moves by over-accentuating their high kicks, bows, and imaginary hat doffings, mixing the cartoonish gestures together with traditional African steps. Likely unaware of the dance's derisive roots, the whites often invited their slaves to participate in Sunday contests, to determine which dancers were most elegant and inventive. The winners would receive cake slices, a prize which gave birth to the dance's familiar name.

That little slice of information comes courtesy of Slate* and is proof that our history is super duper racist. Also, The Artist is going to win.

Best Picture - Drama

This award has left me scratching my head, just because I can't really see any of these films actually winning. The last time that a film won this award without being a Best Director nominee was 1992 (Scent of a Woman), so let's eliminate War Horse, The Help, and Moneyball. In the last decade, four films have won Best Picture-Drama without winning Best Director. Atonement won Picture and Score, Babel only won Picture, The Aviator won Picture, Actor, and Score, and The Hours won Picture and Actress. That doesn't give us a lot to work with, so let's go back further.

A Beautiful Mind won Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay, but not Director (Gosford Park, the last comedy to win the award, took it that year). Gladiator won Picure and Score, as did The English Patient. And this is where we find the trend that cracks the case. The last time a film won Best Picture-Drama without even being nominated for Best Original Score was that ultimate anomaly, Scent of a Woman, back in 1992. Perhaps it is because the HFPA loves grandiosity, and a sweeping impressive score is the ultimate marker of that. Clearly this will be a split year: The Help will win Actress, Supporting Actress, and Song, The Descendants will win Actor and Screenplay (just like About Schmidt did when it lost to The Hours), The Artist will sweep the comedy awards and nab Best Director, and whether or not it wins Best Score, our Best Picture - Drama winner will be Hugo.


But wait, what about Best Screenplay? Isn't that an important nomination for any Best Picture winner to get? Yes, but look at the last three Best Picture winners to not be nominated for Best Screenplay: Avatar, Return of the King, and Gladiator. All three won based on two things: their impressive visuals and the respect for their director. If there are two things that everyone can agree on about Hugo, it is that it is visually outstanding and that Scorsese is the man. It took a lot of circuitous logic, but I finally figured out what film is definitely going to win Best Picture - Drama. Unless of course The Help wins... or The Descendants... or even The Ides of March, which could pull a Babel... crap.

Final Predictions:
Best Picture - Drama: Hugo
Best Picture - Musical/Comedy: The Artist
Best Actor - Drama: George Clooney- The Descendants
Best Actor - Musical/Comedy: Juan Dujardin - The Artist
Best Actress - Drama: Viola Davis - The Help
Best Actress - Musical/Comedy: Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer - The Help
Best Director: Michel Hazanivicius - The Artist
Best Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Original Score: Hugo
Best Original Song: The Living Proof - The Help
Best Animated Feature: Rango
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
Those TV Awards: Peter Dinklage will win EVERY TV award.

*More information about cakewalking can be found in this article.