Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
January 18, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Joyful Noise, the Queen Latifah/Dolly Parton gospel movie, opened to $11.2 million over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of the weekend. What do you think of this result?
Brett Beach: As a continuation of the trend that BOP noted for faith-based films in its Top Film Industry Stories of 2011, it is a solid opening. But with the pairing of the Queen and Dolly, I was expecting something closer to $20 million for the four-day MLK weekend. Neither is at the top of her popularity currently (and it has been 20 years since Parton's last lead) but it seemed like a dream project from my analysis. Still, director Todd Graff has more than doubled the combined final grosses of his two previous musically themed projects (Camp and Bandslam, both of which I would recommend) and has probably come close to recouping production costs already.
Bruce Hall: With a budget somewhere around $25 million, I suspect the Powers That Be were hoping their two leads would draw in a slightly larger crowd. I too was tempted to expect a bit more from this release, but I wonder if there wasn't a significant section of moviegoers who just weren't sure what to make of this? The trailer looks like Glee meets You got Served meets Tyler Perry's Tyler Perry's Big Loud Sassy Choir Movie. In fact, as long as you're going to try and disguise corny, emotionally manipulative treacle for inspirational allegory, why not just cast Tyler Perry? Then we'd be talking about a solid second or third place finish this weekend, instead of a ho-hum fourth.
Matthew Huntley: I was expecting the movie to open closer to $14 million, so the result is mixed at best. As Bruce alluded to, I think Joyful Noise meeting the lower end of expectations can be attributed to audiences being unsure of whether this was a tween movie, a family drama or a (much) softer version of Jungle Fever. Given the PG-13 rating, did parents of 10-12-year-old girls feel comfortable taking their kids to see it? Perhaps if the rating was PG, we would have seen better turnouts because we would know where it stands, but as it is, it's unclear. I think Queen Latifah and Dolly Parton are both past their prime at the box-office, but given they were the most popular cast members, there was no other way to sell it. But the question is, who were they selling it to? Who did New Line figure was the target audience here? I'm still not sure.
David Mumpower: When I first saw the trailer, my initial reaction was that it would do quite well, particularly over the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. This has become a huge four-day period for box office and the (presumed) triumphant return of Dolly Parton alongside Queen Latifah struck me as a strong selling point. This one looked great on paper and after I'd watched the trailer. As such, I have to describe a $13.8 million four-day total as disappointing to me. Given the $25 million production budget, Joyful Noise appears likely to earn money unless it absolutely dies over the next ten days. Still, I feel like this was more commercial than it has proven to be. So either I'm dead wrong or there was a missed opportunity here.
Max Braden: Sorry, Hollywood, only Betty White can be Betty White.
I wonder if Tony Stark made her suit
Kim Hollis: Iron Lady, featuring Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher, expanded from 5 to 802 venues this weekend, earning $5.4 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. What do you think of this result?
Brett Beach: This is probably about $5 million more than a Thatcher biopic would have made in the States with anybody else playing the controversial leader. Streep's performance is the only uniting factor I gather from the mostly disparaging reviews and continued award wins over the next month will keep it in the public eye, giving it anywhere between $20-$30 million when all is said and done.
Bruce Hall: I think it takes more than Meryl Streep with a British accent to make a good movie. But I also think (Fox Mulder conspiracy mode engaged) that the primary concern with this release was to beat the 2011 Oscar Fodder Deadline by 48 hours, quality of story be damned. The Iron Lady has already covered the production budget overseas, Meryl Streep will obtain her 17th Oscar nomination, water is wet, the sky is blue, death and taxes. All of this has happened before, and all of this will happen again. So say we all.
Matthew Huntley: I saw The Iron Lady over the weekend and indeed its box-office expansion is more impressive than its content, but I don't expect its success to last long. Word-of-mouth will catch up and although the film can be considered informative and educational, it's not entertaining or fulfilling. Yes, Streep did take home the Golden Globe (and she's as good as she always is), but that's as far as its awards will go.
Max Braden: In a head-to-head against The Queen on paper, I'd expect them to be even. Elizabeth is a higher profile persona, and more current, but Streep is the higher profile actress with more role to play with. The release pattern wasn't quite the same - The Queen was in hundreds of theaters through November and December before expanding to almost 1,600 sites in mid January 2006, at which time it had accumulated $35 million. It went on to earn over $56 million, which I don't think Thatcher can match. I think that's largely due to a weak push in getting it in front of audiences early enough to be considered for guild nominations. The Golden Globes might give it a little boost now, though.
Kim Hollis: The Queen was also universally considered to be good, while The Iron Lady...is not. I mean, The Queen is 97% fresh at Rotten Tomatoes versus The Iron Lady's 55%. For regular openers, I don't always think reviews matter, but they certainly do for prestige films.
Those are some spectacular globes!
Kim Hollis: What was the biggest surprise from the Golden Globes? What did you like best? What was your biggest dislike?
Brett Beach: Despite the fact that several of my favorite performers were deserved winners this year (Danes, Dern, Clooney), there was an air of "Meh" around the entire proceedings. The bloom has worn off the Gervais rose and even his unpredictable shockingness felt pretty rote. The GGs may have helped solidify things into a Descendants vs Artist race for the top prizes, but there was very little that stood out for me in an intense like or dislike fashion. I enjoyed the Macy/Huffman a capella banter and Colin Firth's quip as he came to the podium, but they didn't make my evening. Probably the biggest surprise was Madonna snagging Best Song. That seemed like The Help's prize all the way.
Samuel Hoelker: I'm excited that there are still many races up in the air. Picture, director, actor, and actress are still up in the air (the comedy/musical winners aren't just token winners, they're actual contenders), and even the wins that were unexpected in my book (Midnight in Paris for screenplay, that awful Madonna song for song) just make everything more interesting.
My biggest surprise? I didn't know Matt LeBlanc had gotten so grey.
Matthew Huntley: Since I've so limited knowledge of television these days, I'll keep my comments limited to the film categories, and I'd say the biggest surprise was Viola Davis not winning Best Actress over Meryl Streep. Both women given fine performances in their respective roles, but Davis' career is hot right now and she was in the better film (though the quality of the overall film shouldn't, in my opinion, dictate whether we given awards to the actors). Sidney Poitier's appearance marked my favorite part of the ceremony because he brought a high level of respect and class to the party, and him presenting the Cecil B. Demille Award to Morgan Freeman on MLK Jr. weekend just seemed extra special and touching. My biggest dislike was Michael Fassbender not winning Best Actor. Don't get me wrong - George Clooney is great in The Descendants, but Fassbender and Shame were better. Clooney is a good choice, but he's also a safe choice. Come Oscar night, though, I think The Artist will clean up.
Kim Hollis: I agree that the biggest surprise in the film category was Madonna's W.E. win for Best Song. That was truly bizarre. But otherwise, I think all the movie awards went pretty much according to plan and basically came down to one of the two most expected winners. As for television, I was surprised Game of Thrones didn't take home more awards than it did - that show seems almost tailor made for the Foreign Press. I'm happy that Peter Dinklage did win for the show, though. He does an amazing job at playing one of the better modern literary characters I've had the pleasure of knowing.