Oscar 2012: Surveying the Wreckage
By Tom Houseman
January 25, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Dude, you're hitting on a 150-year-old.
It has been said that film critics show up on the battlefield after the battle is over so they can kick the wounded. If that's true, then Oscar bloggers show up just after the critics so that they can scavenge the bodies of the dead for pocket watches and other shiny objects. But it is when the Oscar nominations come out that the bodies come back to life and the bloggers have to run for their lives from the reanimated corpses of movies we had just been looting from and spitting on with glee. We have to cover our asses, pretending we know what just happened and why, as if, even if our predictions were totally wrong, we secretly knew what was going to happen the whole time.

Well, my predictions weren't totally wrong. Looking at my percentage of correct predictions I barely scrape by with a D- (60.17%, to be more exact) but hey, a D- is still a passing grade. Now the fun part is going back through all of the various predictions I made that failed miserably, seeing if I can learn from my mistakes so that maybe, just maybe, I can get that 60.17% up to a 61% next year.

Best Picture: (7/9)

I feel good about how I did in this category, considering that of the two films that I got wrong, one I never would have predicted in my right mind, and the other I wouldn't have predicted even if I had gone insane and started investing all of my money in the stock of a company that only makes zip disks and walkmen. There was clearly a lot of passionate support for The Tree of Life, as it's the kind of movie that if you love, you really, really love. Unlike The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo or The Ides of March, this was a movie that was going to get a lot of number one votes. I suspected that Malick's film would be too divisive, but even if 95% of voters hated it, the 5% that put it first on their ballots was enough to get it in.


As for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, well, I wouldn't in a million years have predicted this film to make it in. If Academy President had come to me last night and told me that there would be nine nominees and that Extremely Loud would be one of them, I still would have been wrong because I don't trust that guy. This is another film that is divisive, but that people who get behind really love (count me in that group). This is a heartwarming, inspiring film, the kind that the Academy always loves. Also, clearly every Academy member is obsessed with Stephen Daldry, as the man has never made a film that was not nominated for Best Picture. This nomination serves as a nice reminder that as closely as anyone can follow the Academy, they can still be totally unpredictable.

Best Director: (4/5)

There was no fifth director that we knew would get a lot of support, and I'm guessing that there were a lot of votes split between Spielberg, Fincher, Bennett Miller, and even Tate Taylor. That meant that a smaller film with a lot of vehement support could slide in. It has happened before, to David Lynch, Pedro Almodovar, and Fernando Mereilles, and this year Terrence Malick got that support.

Best Actor: (3/5)

I'm not sure what to say about the two surprises, Demian Bichir and Gary Oldman. On the one hand, Bichir's nomination shows how important the SAG is as a precursor. But if that's true, why did Oldman get in instead of DiCaprio? Most likely a huge push from those wacky Brits got Oldman in, while there wasn't enough support for the poorly reviewed J. Edgar to get DiCaprio a nomination, making this only Eastwood's second film in the last decade to not get a single nomination. And what about Michael Fassbender? Most likely the ick factor was too much for some voters, who were put off by all the sex and nudity.

Best Actress: (4/5)

Apparently sex and nudity is okay when it comes to women, though, which is why Rooney Mara was able to slide in amidst tough competition. Mara was by far the least unlikeable of the three performances fighting for the final spot, and I suspect there were a lot of people who passionately disliked both We Need to Talk About Kevin and Young Adult. As a sympathetic protagonist, Mara was the least objectionable option, which clearly helped.

Best Supporting Actor: (4/5)

I long suspected that the Academy would not be as impressed with Drive as Internet commenters have been, but Albert Brooks getting snubbed was quite a surprise. Still, with his SAG snub as a harbinger this was not totally out of the blue, while the same cannot be said for Max von Sydow's nomination for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (the film's only nomination other than Picture). Between villains often finding success here and the sympathetic old guy spot being taken by Christopher Plummer, there was no reason for anyone to think that von Sydow was in the running. And yet, here he is, serving as further proof that nobody knows anything.

Best Supporting Actress: (4/5)

This category is mostly a reminder to me to check my work. Had I noticed that Berenice Bejo wasn't on my list I would have corrected it immediately. Of course, I would have taken Janet McTeer off and left Shailene Woodley on, so I would have been just as wrong. Considering that the SAG goes for child actors more often than the Oscars do, it should have been a hint that Woodley was not on steady ground when she was ignored by that group.

Best Original Screenplay: (3/5)

Between the light fluffiness of The Artist, Midnight in Paris, and Bridesmaids, the Academy needed some dark, depressing, topical films to fill out the category. Much props to Sasha Stone who, in a show of gutsiness that puts me to shame, correctly predicted A Separation to get a nomination. The writers are more global than the rest of the Academy, having previously nominated Talk to Her, Pan's Labyrinth, and The Barbarian Invasions, and A Separation has proven just how popular it is. Margin Call is another very topical film that seems to have resonated with the liberal Academy. This category is also definitive proof that the Academy is so over Diablo Cody.

Best Adapted Screenplay: (4/5)

I'm very pleased that I correctly predicted Tinker Tailor's nomination over Dragon Tattoo. What did surprise me was The Help's exclusion. Clearly there is not as much love for this film as some suspected, which means a Best Picture upset is out of the question. Another dark, political film got in instead, as the Academy love for George Clooney knows no bounds. One has to wonder how close The Ides of March was to getting a Best Picture nomination instead of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

Best Art Direction: (4/5)

I had a sneaking suspicion that Midnight in Paris would show up somewhere below the line, although I would have guessed it would be for its costumes rather than its sets. Still, this was a fairly open field, and perhaps Anonymous's reliance on CGI in recreating Elizabethan England was held against it.

Best Cinematography: (5/5)

Forget everything I've said in the previous paragraphs. I know everything! This was a fairly easy category to predict, with only Tinker Tailor and Harry Potter posing a threat to War Horse. But the cinematography in War Horse is the kind the Academy embraces, so it's no surprise that it did.

Best Costumes: (4/5)

The Costumers have always done their own thing, and they always love ostentatious outfits. Tinker Tailor's drab duds and The Help's pretty dresses had nothing on the glamorous gowns of W.E. The CDG nom should have been a hint, and a reminder to always look at the guilds first.


Best Film Editing: (5/5)

Seriously, though, I know EVERYTHING!

Best Makeup: (2/3)

This is my most frustrating miss, because I had it right and I second-guessed myself at the last second. The third spot here was wide open, and any of the films on the short list could have gotten it.

Best Sound Mixing: (3/5)

At first I was kicking myself for not trusting the CAS as a precursor more, but when looking at their nominees I would have done worse using their picks as a guide than with my random guesses. The only two that hit both the CAS and the Oscars were Hugo and Moneyball. I suppose we can take from this that small films can be a hit with the Sound Mixers, and that they will take any chance they can get to nominate Greg P. Russell (Transformers 3) just so they cannot give him the Oscar. This will be that guy's 15th nomination without ever winning.

Best Sound Editing: (1/5)

This is the place where I should have looked to the guilds as a guide. Of the MPSE's eight Sound Effects Editing nominees, four of them showed up here, with only Hugo, the only film that I correctly predicted, showing up without a guild nomination.

Best Visual Effects: (4/5)

I feel no shame in only getting four out of five here. My gut told me that The Tree of Life would get ignored here, but that same gut was telling me to pick Captain America instead, so I have no qualms about how this turned out.

Best Original Score: (3/5)

Never ever ever pick against John Williams. This is the third time in the last decade that Williams has been nominated twice in the same year. Beyond that, I guess Trent Reznor still isn't part of the official Academy composers club, as he and partner Atticus Ross were overlooked in favor of Alberto Iglesias for his work on Tinker Tailor.

Best Original Song: (0/2)

I try so hard to defend this category from haters, but this year is just embarrassing. First of all, only two nominees? Really? Secondly, what random nominations. I'm impressed that they picked the best Muppets song, but that song from Rio? Clearly the rule that songs have to be seen over the footage they are played over in their film hurt a lot of contenders, especially The Help and Albert Nobbs. How they were able to ignore Star Spangled Man from Captain America, however, is beyond me.

Best Animated Film (2/5)

Critics and the HFPA have gotten over their distrust of motion capture animation, but obviously the AMPAS voters haven't, which explains Tintin's absence. Voters also took this opportunity to send a message to Pixar that they won't nominate mediocre movies, as Cars 2 is the first Pixar film in the history of this category to not get nominated. Instead the voters picked two smaller foreign films, the very deserving Chico & Rita and the I haven't seen it A Cat in Paris. They like to keep us on our toes, those animators.

Best Documentary Feature: (2/5)

Remember how upset everyone was with the Documentary voters, saying that the only great 2011 documentary they didn't snub was Project Nim? Well, consider this a giant up yours from voters to critics, as Project Nim got snubbed too. I can't pretend to explain the picks of these voters, as I've only seen one of them, so I'll just say I'm glad I got as many right as I did.

Best Foreign Language Film: (3/5)

I already told you that beyond A Separation I was just taking semi-educated shots in the dark, and hey, two of those shots hit something. Let's just hope that if Iran's film beats Israel's for the award, it doesn't ignite World War III. Also, if that does happen, then unlike Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close's Best Picture nomination, I can totally say I called it.