Oscar 2012: Final Predictions Part One
By Tom Houseman
February 9, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Last year I went to an Oscar party with a bunch of friends, some movie nerds like me, others who were only interested in seeing the pretty dresses and getting drunk with company for a change. I carefully filled out my ballot, second guessing myself at every turn, but sticking with my gut for the most part. It was an average year for me, as I got 16 categories right (I typically get between 14 and 17, depending on how many awards are given to The Bourne Ultimatum). My downfall was in the short film categories, where I went zero for three (I really hate the short film categories). Despite several missed categories, I won the party's Oscar pool, and still have the plastic crown to prove it.
I only barely won, as the guy who came in second got 15 categories right, including a handful that I got wrong. He was a British guy who was couch surfing with a friend of mine and happened to show up at the party. He didn't know anything about the Oscars. He had seen only one of the ten Best Picture nominees (Inception) and hadn't heard of Winter's Bone before that night. Had I asked him what he thought of Tom Hooper's DGA win, he wouldn't have understood the majority of the question. Mostly he just guessed, and despite that he almost beat me. It is as if Roger Federer had played a grueling five-set tennis match, which he just barely won in a tie-breaker, against a three-legged golden retriever puppy.
Now that I have made it abundantly clear just how little you should trust my analysis, or, for that matter, anyone else's, here is my breakdown of every Oscar category this year, and who I think is most likely to win.
Best Visual Effects
There are some very heavy hitters in this category, and while there is one film that has been long looked on as the frontrunner, we might be in for a surprise. Rise of the Planet of the Apes got a lot of attention when it was first released, partially because everyone was surprised by how good it was, but partially because of the extraordinary visual effects. It's been the favorite in this category since its release, but is it the kind of film that the Academy likes to reward? The Academy likes big, bombastic visual effects, as evidenced by recent wins for Inception, Avatar, and The Golden Compass. The apes in rise aren't like King Kong, which might work against it.
Its biggest competition is likely to be Transformers: Dark of the Moon, which is hoping to make up for slights against the previous two films in the series. Transformers was nominated, but lost in an upset to The Golden Compass, while Revenge of the Fallen was edged out in a crowded category by Avatar, District 9, and Star Trek. Each film ups the grandiosity of the effects, but will series fatigue keep this film from the podium again?
Could there be an upset in this category? Hugo is the only Best Picture nominee in the field, which might give it an edge, while Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 is only the second Potter film nominated. These are both films that voters might support for reasons other than just thinking they have the best visual effects. Potter might even have a better chance than Dark of the Moon, since the Academy might want to give it an award just as a way of rewarding the series as a whole. In a crowded category, Rise of the Planet of the Apes makes the strongest case for deserving this award, and in the end it probably will.
Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Might Win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Dark Horse: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Best Sound Editing
We've already established that I'm a nerd for statistics, which can occasionally lead to my downfall. Still, check this out: since 1995, seven war films have won the Best Sound Editing award, and zero war films have lost to a film that wasn't a war film. Having lots of visual effects is not the advantage one would expect it to be, as evidenced by Pirates of the Caribbean's loss to Master and Commander, Transformers' loss to The Bourne Ultimatum, and Avatar's loss to The Hurt Locker. The films that win here are the popular films that are either Best Picture nominees or just missed the cut.
Keeping all that in mind, I have a feeling that this is the category where War Horse gets its Oscar. It has the big action sequences mixed with the Oscar prestige that gets films Sound Editing Oscars. Letters from Iwo Jima took its only statue here, and I suspect the same will happen for War Horse. Of course, if the love for Hugo is overwhelming it has a shot to steal this category from War Horse. The Hurt Locker likely only won here because of love for the film, rather than its sound editing, and Hugo did have that big impressive train sequence. War Horse is not a lock to win, but it does seem to be in a comfortable position.
Will Win: War Horse
Might Win: Hugo
Dark Horse: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Best Sound Mixing
The Best Picture favorite usually takes this category pretty easily, but something makes me think that's not going to happen this year, barring the weirdest write-in campaign in Oscar history. That being the case, look for this year's Best Picture runner-up to step in and scoop this one. Hugo is unlikely to win Best Picture, so its consolation prize will be as many technical Oscars as it can grab. Without The Artist in its way, Hugo seems like a very strong favorite here.
Still, the last four years in a row the winner for Best Sound Mixing was also the winner for Best Sound Editing. True, two of those films were Best Picture winners, but the fact is that the Academy tends to lump these two categories in together. That means that if War Horse takes Best Sound Editing it could also scoop up this one, since it's obvious that most voters don't know the difference between mixing and editing. If you don't have enough faith in the Academy to trust that they'll be able to split these two categories, then pick one of these two films to win both categories. However, I do believe this year will break the trend.
Will Win: Hugo
Might Win: War Horse
Dark Horse: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Makeup
This category is so much of a head scratcher that my scalp has started bleeding. One the one hand, we have Harry Potter, which is the more traditional Best Makeup winner. Fantasy films with prosthetics tend to dominate here, with The Wolfman, Star Trek, Pan's Labyrinth and The Chronicles of Narnia all picking up Oscars for their makeup. Still, this is the first Potter film to be nominated in this category, which is more remarkable for its art direction and visual effects than for its makeup. Getting ignored for Best Picture shows that there is not as much love for this film in the Academy as there is on the Internet.
On the other hand, there is the less ostentatious but very impressive age makeup of The Iron Lady. The last time a film won this category for its age makeup was La Vie en Rose, in which the Best Actress winner was transformed into a famous historical figure. Whether or not Meryl Streep wins Best Actress, the comparison is clear, as Streep's transformation into Margaret Thatcher has gotten the raves that the film itself did not get. Still, age makeup is a tough sell without any other impressive uses of makeup or prosthetics, as evidenced by A Beautiful Mind's loss Fellowship of the Ring. The safer choice is The Iron Lady, but it is by no means safe with Harry Potter breathing down its neck.
Will Win: The Iron Lady
Might Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Dark Horse: By process of elimination, Albert Nobbs
Next time I will break down Best Art Direction, Best Costumes, and two of the most interesting categories of the year, Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing.