Oscar 2012: Final Predictions Part Four
By Tom Houseman
February 24, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Both Chicago and Shakespeare in Love are both much lighter in both tone and grandeur than the typical Oscar winner. Both went up against very serious, intense, epic, important films. Shakespeare in Love beat epics directed by Steven Spielberg and Terrence Malick, while Chicago overcame serious films from Martin Scorsese and Stephen Daldry. Sound familiar? So how did these two films overcome their stiff competition to become Best Picture winners?
Both films evoke a specific time period, Elizabethan England and Jazz-age Chicago. The Artist does the same thing with Hollywood's Golden Age. All three films are about artists overcoming adversity very specific to their time periods, and are able to make those specific stories universal. For Shakespeare in Love, the message is that love is the greatest power and inspiration in the world. For Chicago, the message is that by working the system and breaking the rules you can achieve great things. And The Artist? It is a film about being willing to change and grow, about not letting pride stand in the way of love or success. Those are all ideas that all audiences, but especially artists, can relate to.
Another important point to make is that neither of those films dominated their Oscar years, although both did well. Shakespeare in Love won seven awards, including Oscars for its its screenplay and for lead actress Gwyneth Paltrow, but it lost Best Director to Steven Spielberg for Saving Private Ryan. Chicago won six awards, but lost both Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Director to The Pianist. Did the fact they they were comedies work against them in the Best Director race? Were voters reluctant to award the director of a comedy, favoring more ambitious and dramatic fare? And will that trend continue this year with The Artist? Let's look at the last categories left to be examined.
Best Adapted Screenplay
There are a lot of veterans in this category, as nominees Alexander Payne, John Logan, George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin have all been nominated before. Considering how closely Best Picture usually matches up with the screenplays, it is surprising that two films not nominated for the big prize beat out films like War Horse, The Help, and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Although there might not be a lot of broad support for The Ides of March and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, clearly there are some writers who love them.
Which is to say that the nomination is the award for those two films. The Descendants has been the frontrunner for this award pretty much since word got out that Alexander Payne was making a new film. He was snubbed for About Schmidt, but cruised to a win for Sideways, and seems to be in the same position here. It has support from multiple branches and won the Writers Guild Award. There is no reason to think that it won't win.
Will Win: The Descendants
Might Win: Moneyball
Dark Horse: Hugo
Best Original Screenplay
If The Artist is going to dominate on Sunday night, if it is going to truly sweep, then it will win here. If there is so much love for the film that it simply cannot be denied, it will win Best Screenplay. That category is often a gimme for Best Picture winners, as The King's Speech, No Country for Old Men, and Crash all won for their screenplays despite little success elsewhere. The kind of films that win Best Picture without taking a Screenplay award are the kind more defined by their visuals, and they typically lose to respected veterans who wrote popular scripts. Gladiator lost to Almost Famous, Chicago lost to The Pianist, and Million Dollar Baby lost to Sideways.
The Artist is definitely defined more by its visuals than its script, and it is likely that some voters might not be willing to vote for a silent film in this category. That is why I suspect Midnight in Paris will take this award, making it the only Oscar the film will win. Woody Allen is beloved by the Academy (although the love is not returned), and Midnight in Paris is Allen's first Best Picture nominee since Hannah and her Sisters, which was also the last time Allen won an Oscar. Wins at the Golden Globes and the WGA (where The Artist was ineligible) are a good sign for Allen's chances at winning a third Oscar. It might get swept away by The Artist's domination, but I feel confident predicting a win for Allen.
Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Might Win: The Artist
Dark Horse: A Separation
Best Director
As I've said, it is difficult for comedies to win Best Director Oscars. Chicago couldn't do it, and Shakespeare in Love couldn't do it. But Terms of Endearment did (although that is classified a comedy the same way American Beauty is) and Annie Hall did. But Chicago is the most interesting case here. Rob Marshall won the Directors Guild Award, which usually coincides with Best Director more often than something that happens almost all the time. But Gangs of New York won the Golden Globe for Best Director, and many thought that Scorsese would finally win his first Directing Oscar. Instead, in the biggest surprise of the night, Roman Polanski won the award for The Pianist.
There is very rarely a split between Best Picture and Best Director, so when it does happen we have to figure out how we could have seen it coming. In 2001, Ang Lee was expected to win Best Director for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, since he had won both the Globe and the DGA. But the Oscar went to Stephen Soderbergh for Traffic, while Best Picture went to Gladiator. What I am trying to get across is that the DGA winner is the overwhelming frontrunner for Best Director, and when it doesn't happen it is because things got weird.
So Michel Hazanivicius won the DGA, while Martin Scorsese won the Golden Globe. It is difficult to make an argument against Hazanivicius winning, but considering that Marshall was a similar neophyte (Hazanivicius is a neophyte by American standards) director of an old school comedy who won the DGA, I feel some reticence in predicting him to win. Hugo's 11 nominations prove that there is a lot of support for the film, and Scorsese is always a threat to win, even if he almost never does. But someone else to watch out for it Terrence Malick. Tree of Life's Best Picture nomination is a sign that there is a strong fanbase within the Academy. Could Malick pull a Polanski and steal the Oscar? It certainly can't be ruled out. However, I think we all learned last year that the rule is to always pick the Best Picture winner to also take Director. If you want to play it safe, stick with The Artist.
Will Win: The Artist
Might Win: Hugo
Dark Horse: The Tree of Life
Best Picture
Is there anything else that really needs to be said at this point? The Artist won the Golden Globe for Best Picture - Musical/Comedy, it won the BFCA, the BAFTA, and the DGA. The only major precursor it didn't win was the SAG ensemble. Is there enough support for any film to beat The Artist? Hugo, maybe, but it's an extreme long shot. Nothing else is really in the picture anymore. The Artist has had a remarkable run, opening to raves at Cannes, where Dujardin won Best Actor, and its unexpected path from silent black-and-white passion project to Best Picture winner is a testament to both how deeply Hollywood has fallen in love with the film, with of course a little shot in the butt from Harvey Weinstein's arrow.
So that wraps it up. I've thoroughly diagnosed almost every category, and have imparted upon you, dear reader, what little wisdom I pretend to have. There are a few categories I didn't examine as thoroughly, either because the winner is obvious or because I have no idea what is going to win. My prediction for Best Documentary is little more than a guess, and I wouldn't argue with anyone picking a different nominee.
As for the short films? I would recommend looking at my predictions and then picking something else. Over the last three years I am an astonishing one for nine in those three categories, and could never in good conscience tell anyone else what to pick there. So I hope you keep my thoughts in mind while making your picks, but also take everything I say with a grain of salt. Other than that, I wish all of you the best of luck, unless any of your predictions differ from mine in any way. I don't have enough luck to share with people whose success will come at the expense of my own.
Final Predictions
Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanivicius - The Artist
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Best Actress: Viola Davis - The Help
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer - The Help
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Best Art Direction: Hugo
Best Cinematography: Hugo
Best Costumes: Hugo
Best Film Editing: The Artist
Best Makeup: The Iron Lady
Best Sound Mixing: Hugo
Best Sound Editing: War Horse
Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Original Score: The Artist
Best Original Song: Man or Muppet - The Muppets
Best Animated Feature: Rango
Best Documentary Feature: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
Best Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Best Documentary Short: Incident in New Baghdad
Best Live Action Short: The Shore
Note: To read the other columns in the Oscar 2012 series, please click the "View other Oscars columns" link below.