Oscar 2013: The Stuff of Fantasy
Will genre fare fare fairly at the Oscars this year?
By Tom Houseman
March 28, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
It is true that in the last decade, sci-fi, fantasy, and horror films have started to find more traction at the Oscars. There was of course the Lord of the Rings trilogy, which is an anomaly we might never see repeated (or might we?). The Sixth Sense and Black Swan can be added to a very small list of horror films nominated for Best Picture. Cultural phenomena Avatar and Inception, as well as surprise hit District 9, all had strong showings at the Oscars, although the Academy didn't like them quite as much as the fanboys did. And then there are Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Midnight in Paris, which are Oscar films that just happen to have fantasy elements, rather than the other way around.
But then there are the snubs, both deserving and otherwise, depending on whom you ask. The two most infamous are, of course, The Dark Knight and Wall-E, both of which were threats to be Best Picture nominees but couldn't quite fight their way through the air of pretension that surrounds the Oscars. King Kong couldn't recapture the magic that Jackson spun with the Rings trilogy, and Star Trek, as the third best sci-fi film released in 2009, was left in the cold. And of course there is the Harry Potter series, eight epic films that created some extraordinary cinematic moments. Despite a push for the finale to get a Best Picture nomination, the series combined for 12 nominations and couldn't take home a single award. This could be a banner year for genre films, though, as there are at least four sci-fi/fantasy films that are serious contenders to be nominated for Best Picture, as well as a handful of others that should be considered. How many of them will overcome genre bias?
The Dark Knight would almost certainly have been a Best Picture nominee had there been room for more than five nominees, and many believe that the Oscars expanded the category to avoid such a snub in the future. If The Dark Knight Rises is as well received as its predecessor, it will be truly shocking to see it snubbed. Christopher Nolan will also have the potential for a Best Director nomination, and while a Best Actor nod for Christian Bale is unlikely, if Tom Hardy makes as much of his villain role as Heath Ledger did, he will be in the running for Best Supporting Actor. Even if the finale of Nolan's trilogy is not the phenomenon that its middle part was, a slew of technical nominations are in the cards for The Dark Knight Rises.
Despite the popularity of Ridley Scott, he has not been a big hit with the Academy. Since scoring back-to-back nominations for Gladiator (which won Best Picture) and Black Hawk Down (which wasn't nominated for the big prize), Scott has been largely ignored by the Academy. American Gangster was in the running but came up short. Now Scott is back with a film that is not necessarily connected to Alien, but takes place in the same universe. Largely eschewing the sci-fi genre since Alien and Blade Runner, the films that created his reputation, Scott is back with Prometheus, which is generating a lot of buzz on the Internet. The first two Alien films were players at the Oscars, each winning some gold, but neither competing for top honors. I suspect, though, that had Alien and Blade Runner come out today they would have been Best Picture nominees. If Prometheus hits the mark the way those did, it will be difficult to keep it out of a field of more than five nominees.
Nobody expected Peter Jackson's adaptation of the Lord of the Rings trilogy to dominate the Oscars the way it did, culminating in The Return of the King's record-tying 11 Oscars. Now we are prepared, and expectations are sky high for The Hobbit, adapted from J.R.R. Tolkien's prequel to The Lord of the Rings. Since his domination of the Oscars in 2004, King Kong had to settle for a slew of technical nominations, and The Lovely Bones flopped, scoring only Best Supporting Actor for Stanley Tucci. Has backlash against Jackson built up in the Academy? If The Hobbit is not as gloriously received as the trilogy was, I would not be surprised if it doesn't get a Best Picture nomination.
While some might call the expansion of Best Picture “the Dark Knight rule,” others would call it “the Pixar rule.” Since the expansion, two Pixar films have been nominated for Best Picture, and the other one was Cars 2. Back with a new original film, Pixar practically has a spot reserved for it if Brave is up to the quality of Pixar's usual products. The film looks like a return to the top of Pixar's game, and being the first film from the studio to feature a female protagonist might predispose some voters toward supporting it. If the reviews are great there is no reason to think that Brave won't be Pixar's third Best Picture nominee.
Tim Burton has become more of a mainstay at the Oscars over the last decade, almost in direct proportion to the decline in quality of his films. It seems that film critics don't care for Burton's decision to put style above substance, but the Oscars can't get enough, although Burton has never had a film that was really in the running for Best Picture (Sweeney Todd is the closest he's come). Will Dark Shadows, based on Gothic soap opera from the '60s, earn more respect than most of Burton's latest work? Most people are keeping their hopes low, expecting the trademark transcendent visuals, which will likely mean a couple of artistic nominations, but not much more.
Alfonso Cuaron's last directorial effort was the sci-fi classic Children of Men, which scored a few Oscar nominations but couldn't break into the Best Picture or Best Director fields. Now Cuaron is back with Gravity, about two astronauts stranded in space. The Academy seems to not care for sci-fi films set in space unless they are on par with 2001 or Avatar. Still, with Oscar winners George Clooney and Sandra Bullock starring, this film will certainly get attention during Oscar season, although whether that translates to nominations is a very different matter.
Harry Potter never found much love at the Oscars, but could a darker, more violent, less magical children's film fare better at the Oscars? The Hunger Games is likely to become one of the first big hits of 2012, and features a number of previous Oscar nominees both behind and in front of the camera. Gary Ross (Pleasantville, Seabiscuit) wrote and directed, and Jennifer Lawrence, Woody Harrelson, and Stanley Tucci all star in the film. Between the bias against films aimed at young audiences and an early release date that will make the film largely forgotten, Hunger Games, barring a miracle, is looking for at best nominations for its art direction and costumes.
Brave is the heavy favorite to win Best Animated Feature this year, but three other animated flicks could challenge it, although Best Picture seems out of reach for any of them. Tim Burton's second film this year is an adaptation of a short film he made in the '80s, Frankenweenie. The black and white claymation could be a hit with the animators, and if Brave is not as good as the hype, Burton could win his first Oscar. He will have to contend with ParaNorman, which debuted a very well-received teaser last fall and could be a big hit. It is a kid horror film in the same vein as Monster House, which was also nominated for Best Animated Feature. Meanwhile, Rise of the Guardians is being described as a contemporary fairytale, based on a series of books that sounds like a less clever version of The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen. But hey, Hugh Jackman plays the Easter Bunny, so it could be fun.
A handful of independent genre films might end up being hits, although their chances with the Academy are slim. Steven Spielberg's Lincoln is one of the early favorites for Best Picture, but could its thunder be stolen by Timur Bekmambatov's Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter? No, probably not, although fans of the novel might turn the film into a hit. Rian Johnson's first two films, Brick and The Brothers Bloom, never made it onto the Academy's radar, and there isn't much reason to think that Looper will. Apparently he was helped by Primer director Shane Carruth, so fans of both directors (this guy right here) should get excited. Meanwhile, the New Orleans-set fantasy film Beasts of the Southern Wild was one of the big hits of Sundance. Last year's Another Earth was completely ignored, but if Beasts is a hit it has a chance at a Screenplay nomination, perhaps.
Could either of the Snow White movies strike a chord with Oscar? Snow White and the Huntsmen looks like the more epic film, which means it will likely have a better shot in the technical categories, but if Mirror Mirror is a hit a Best Actress nomination for Julia Roberts is not out of the question. The last Bourne film was a surprise success, winning three Oscars. Could a changing of the guard yield similar results? We will have to see if The Bourne Legacy, which replaces Matt Damon with Jeremy Renner, is as well reviewed as Ultimatum before we make a judgment. It is safe to say, though, that the new James Bond film Skyfall should not be holding its breath for any Oscar nominations. It would be the first Bond film to do so in more than 30 years.
And then, of course, there is the wave of fantasy epics, superhero movies, and franchise films that might sneak into the Oscars with Visual Effects or Sound Editing nominations. Both Iron Man films were nominated for their visual effects, and adding a slew of other superheroes might help. Watch out for The Avengers to get a couple of nominations, and maybe more, depending on the popularity of the film. Men in Black won Best Makeup back in the day, but I doubt MIB 3 will find the same success unless it is truly extraordinary. Will rebooting the Spider-Man franchise lead to more Oscar success? Spidey's one and two were both nominated for Visual Effects, so don't count out The Amazing Spider-Man. And then of course there is John Carter, Wrath of the Titans, Battleship, G.I. Joe: Retaliation, and, scraping the bottom of the barrel, Total Recall and Dredd. All of them have to be mentioned, if only to fill our thoughts of summer with, well, dread.