Monday Morning Quarterback Part III
By BOP Staff
March 27, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: What does the shocking performance of The Hunger Games do to the competition? Should the producers of The Avengers, The Amazing Spider-Man and The Dark Knight rises be excited by this unexpected burst of box office expansion? Alternately, is there more pressure on them, since there is a chance that this unheralded March film is the biggest opener of 2012?
Felix Quinonez: I think anyone in the movie industry should be thrilled about this just because it's so good for the box office and industry in general, especially when you remember what a lousy start 2011 had. I also think this definitely raises the pressure on the big three. I see this as similar to when Fast Five surprised everyone last year and stole Thor's thunder. On a side note, I don't think The Amazing Spider-Man should be considered to be in the same league as The Avengers or The Dark Knight Rises. That franchise is kind of damaged goods right now and a lot of people think it's too soon to see a reboot. I think The Amazing Spider-Man has to win back the good will of the audience (like X-Men: First Class had to do last year) before it can be considered a heavyweight like The Avengers or The Dark Knight Rises.
Edwin Davies: This massively raises the stakes for The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises, though, like Felix, I never considered the Amazing Spider-Man to be in the conversation for biggest opening of the year. Both of those films have the edge since they have several films worth of expectations and goodwill built up, and The Avengers has the added advantage of the 3D surplus, but they've suddenly got a whole new contender that realistically no one was anticipating, so their momentum has been disrupted, even if it won't be completely derailed by this result.
Jim Van Nest - I don't know that I ever thought the Avengers would be bigger than The Hunger Games. While it does has several movies feeding into it, Hunger Games had an anticipation that I hadn't felt in a long time for a film. The Dark Knight Rises...I'm not sure where I fall on this one. And I say this because The Dark Knight had a couple things going for it that I don't know that Rises can match. The word-of-mouth on Heath Ledger's Joker was insane already...and when he died, it went into the stratosphere. I'm not so sure that The Dark Knight was ever supposed to be the juggernaut it turned out to be. I think it was a perfect storm at the time. And I'm not sure Rises will be able to equal it. My caveat here is that I've heard very little about any of the performances, and if someone has a breakout like Ledger did, it could well compete. This was my very wordy way of saying I think Hunger Games will have the biggest opening of 2012.
Bruce Hall: I agree that this is a great thing overall for the industry. A high tide raises all boats, after all. But I will not be surprised if The Hunger Games is the biggest hit of 2012. Yet, I'm not convinced this particularly has any effect on The Avengers, The Amazing Spider-Man or The Dark Knight Rises. None of those are the same type of film, and each of them is already whatever it's going to be. Originally, I cared as much about The Avengers as I do about what happened to my ninth grade physics teacher (read: zero). But the trailers are starting to intrigue me. A little.
I'm still not convinced it will be as big a hit as some people do, but whatever happens to The Avengers, it will be on its own merits. And in the end, will anyone really care whether it's the second, third or fourth biggest film of the year? Because no matter what happens it will probably be one of those things. Ditto with Spider-Man. I am encouraged by what I've seen (except for that awful suit, with the big red arrow pointing to his dong), but I think the year's most unnecessary Friendly Neighborhood Reboot is anything but a known quantity at this point. It will succeed or fail based on whether or not it's actually any good.
Meanwhile - and I don't think I'm going out on a limb here -The Dark Knight Rises will be a smash. Take your screen shot now.
Max Braden: I would love to know how economists see movies as indicators, because to me, this much money flowing into the box office suggests the economy is on its way to being fixed. Was everyone saving up since before Christmas? I think there is more pressure felt by the comic book movie producers, but on the other hand this huge weekend is probably a catalyst for moviegoers. Get it in their minds that there are big things happening in theaters, and they'll probably return for other movies. This summer could turn into a feeding frenzy. I feel comfortable saying that because I don't get the impression that there's any buyer's remorse from The Hunger Games. It's not a movie I'd immediately call up there with the best blockbusters of all time, but for those who felt they just had to go see it this weekend, I think they were satisfied that they did.
Brett Beach: Echoing some of the comments, I would switch out The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey for Amazing Spider-Man in the list. It has the scent of reboot too quickly to it, that I think may tamp some of the excitement. On a larger scale, the excitement may be building and the awareness may be there for what lies ahead this year, but ultimately what follows after the first weekend will depend on how much the movies deliver. I never thought I would be asking this question but: Do The Avengers and/or The Dark Knight Rises have what it takes to deliver a $200 million opening weekend? Maybe... maybe.
David Mumpower: I disagree that The Amazing Spider-Man should be summarily dismissed from the conversation. I accept that the film could be rejected by mainstream moviegoers. Despite this, what I know is that Spider-Man opened to $114.8 million and Spider-Man 3 opened to $151.1 million. Both of those were box office records that stood for a while. The only reason why the best film in that franchise, Spider-Man 2, is excluded is that it opened Fourth of July week and thereby had $64.2 million siphoned off from the opening weekend total. That franchise has set the opening weekend record twice and so I am withholding final judgment on The Amazing Spider-Man reboot until we see the final ads. After all, Marvel has done very well with all of their recent releases and Sony has always treated this property as the gold standard it has proven to be. Having said all of that, I mentioned in an earlier comment that the pressure is on them to justify the decision of Andrew Garfield over Josh Hutcherson after the latter gentlemen demonstrated the Midas Touch with The Hunger Games.
With regards to The Dark Knight Rises and particularly The Avengers, I absolutely believe that there is a double-edged Sword of Damocles hanging over the titles. On the one hand, they cannot let an unknown upstart steal their thunder. The Avengers is close enough in release to The Hunger Games that this is a real concern, one that must have the producers of this weekend's releases (Wrath of the Titans and Mirror Mirror) in pure panic mode. There is a largely forgotten Ben Stiller movie called Mystery Men that once got swallowed whole by the Blair Witch phenomenon. The Avengers is far enough away that maybe in can capitalize a bit in that casual movie-goers received positive reinforcement in going to see The Hunger Games this weekend (demonstrated by its solid reviews and A Cinemascore). This may entice them to watch another movie sooner than planned. Alternately, everything may look like a pale shadow of Katniss with The Avengers even having the misfortune to sport someone with a bow/quiver of arrows. I think The Avengers will be fine since the Marvel titles have been so well received but I'm less confident today than I was a week ago.
As for The Dark Knight Rises, I see this title as a foregone conclusion to break the opening weekend box office record now. We have seen that the choicest movie theaters have ramped up their delivery system as demonstrated by the $36,871 per-location average for The Hunger Games. Batman should be the prime beneficiary of this. As stated here umpteen times, I believe that the previous film in a franchise buys the opening weekend of the next release (a terrifying thought when applied to Catching Fire) and no recent blockbuster is as beloved as The Dark Knight. The grave concern for this title is in terms of legs/expectations. Anticipation for The Dark Knight sequel is such that a Batman and Robin (or at least a Batman Returns) reception is a genuine possibility. Fans are a bit unreasonable with their demands for the final Nolan/Batman film. That could hurt it if he has (perish the thought) missed an opportunity with the finale. The rants about Bane's voice made me realize some people will not be happy with anything less than perfect and that's a near impossible standard in cinema. It's exactly what killed the Star Wars, Pirates of the Caribbean and Matrix sequels.
Reagen Sulewski: The big wild card in this discussion is that Avengers and Spider-Man are 3D, and none of the other films in this discussion are. If we still have the extra cost for 3D tickets, that's going to play a big part in whether they break the record or not. All of these films are capable of breaking the record as it stands, but it's another story to talk about what the record might be by the time it gets to be their opening weekend.