Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
April 28, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Think Like a Man
Holding on top after its stellar opening weekend is Think Like a Man, with $5.5 million, a 54.9% decline from last weekend. That's a little better than the average Tyler Perry decline (which usually falls in the mid 60% range), and with all four new releases underperforming, it's going to cruise to a second weekend on top before [tm:4524_]The Avengers[/tm] shows up. Look for a second weekend of $17.5 million.
The [tm:5212_]Five-Year Engagement[/tm]
A disappointing third place on Friday goes to [bp:2000_]Jason Segel[/bp]'s The Five-Year Engagement, with $3.5 million. The breakout of Think Like a Man last weekend was probably the worst thing that could have happened to The Five-Year Engagement, as its success and word-of-mouth likely made it the date movie of choice this weekend as opposed to the newer release. The Apatow connection isn't what it was, with this and Feburary's Wanderlust (bet you forgot about that one already, right? Don't worry, so did I.) coming in under expectations. The Five-Year Engagement should have a weekend of about $10.5 million.
[tm:5122_]The Pirates! Band of Misfits[/tm]
The latest release from Aardman Animations, The Pirates! Band of Misfits opens to $2.8 million, good for fifth place on Friday. The last domestic Aardman release came back in November when Arthur Christmas arrived over Thanksgiving to $12 million over the weekend and $16.3 million in five days. Don't fret too much over the performance of The Pirates! here, it's already earned nearly $60 million in international box office, where it's been released for a month. Give it a weekend of $9 million and a long life on home video.
[tm:5167_]Safe[/tm]
[bp:1214_]Jason Statham[/bp]'s Safe checks in with $2.6 million, which is a little off from your typical "Jason Statham movie" opening. In January 2011 The Mechanic started with $3.6 million on its way to an $11.4 million weekend. Applying that multiplier to Safe would give it a weekend of $8.2 million.
The Raven
Finally, John Cusak's The Raven is the weekend's worst opener with $2.5 million. As Edgar Allen Poe himself once wrote: quoth The Raven, "seven point four." (Er, million, that is.)