Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
May 7, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Sometimes you're the bull and sometimes you're the cow. We recently needled Reagen about a tough weekend, but he boldly predicted that the opening weekend record would fall to The Avengers and he was right. The meta-Marvel production opened to an almost unimaginable $207.4 million. What are your thoughts about this result?
Bruce Hall: I felt pretty sure that the opening weekend performance of The Avengers would be largely based on the quality of the project. Dorks around the world were tweeting their potentially searing opinions within seconds of the lights coming up, and it's been a very positive response. Having seen it myself, I tend to agree with the prevailing consensus - this is a high quality project. It's a well written, well paced, well scripted ride on a fun filled rocket car, fueled by the gleeful tears of millions of rabid fanboys. Kudos to all involved - it's everything a non Nolan comic book film should be. I think this could end up being the biggest film of the year depending on what happens with Batman, and since the Amazingly Unnecessary Spider-Man Reboot is beginning to look like a letdown.
Felix Quinonez: I think it's hard to describe this opening without saying words like amazing, or incredible. I am especially blown away because I didn't actually think that it would break the opening weekend record. I actually didn't think it would beat The Dark Knight. I mean, I thought there was an outside chance of it toppling The Dark Knight's numbers but I was expecting it to land in The Hunger Games/Spider-Man 3 territory. But not even once did I think $200 million was a possibility.
Tim Briody: This is an absolutely ridiculous performance made all the more impressive because after the initial midnight figure was released, most of us looked at The Avengers' $18.7 million and had some second thoughts, especially when you consider that Harry Potter 7.2 took in $43.5 million in its midnight shows. But when the full Friday total came in, it was easily the more impressive day than Deathly Hallows had. I'm actually happiest for Joss Whedon. Now's the time to float your Serenity sequel, Joss!
Samuel Hoelker: After seeing its international numbers, and especially after its Friday numbers, I really can't see how anyone could expect this not to break HP7.5's record, but the $200 million number is just ridiculous. I, like I think the rest of us, was expecting a fight to break the record, not to spit on HP7.5. I think word-of-mouth is a great factor in this result, as well as for its future success. Kids will want to come back to this one, and their parents won't mind doing that.
Edwin Davies: I'll add to the chorus of people saying that this is an astounding result. Going into the weekend, I thought it might take the #2 spot, since it had a much wider cultural awareness than The Hunger Games and a lot more built-up anticipation than The Dark Knight. Once the Friday numbers came in, it became apparent that the record was going to fall, but I didn't expect it to smash it by almost $40 million. This is a perfect storm of what happens when marketing and quality work together seamlessly: Disney did an amazing job getting the film out to people who weren't familiar with the non-Iron Man Marvel films, and the resulting film is an expertly crafted piece of blockbuster entertainment. Everyone else in Hollywood should take note.
Shalimar Sahota: Less than a year ago when Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 broke the opening weekend record, we were asked if there were any films on the horizon which stood a chance of beating it. The Avengers was discussed as opening huge, but back then only Edwin really considered it as a strong possibility. I now bow before his greatness. I thought the film would open to something close to The Dark Knight's opening, somewhere between $145 - $155 million. So seeing it reach the $200 million mark is just plain unbelievable!
Reagen Sulewski: What's striking to me is that I was among the bolder predictions out there, and I still missed it by $30 million. That's an astounding figure, even when you take into account all the expensive 3D tickets. I mean, we're talking about three $55 million days in a row, and no other film has even gotten close to that.
It's interesting that the record seems to grow in great spurts - the only "just" in recent years was Dark Knight beating out Spidey 3 - so there has to be something foundational in the fact that Avengers did this. I think there's something to be said about the fact that this was marketed as a bright and fun blockbuster - a lot of the previous record breakers have been sort of grim affairs. This was grand scale and a promise of fun, instead of making you feel like you wanted to slit your wrists after. That, I think, made a big difference.
Daron Aldridge: First, take the victory, Reagen. What's $30 million here or there, right? I guess I too will have to join your chorus. The number that kept popping into my head was $144 million...not sure why that number other than it must've carried over from working on multiplication tables with my son. I just simply thought that the audience that wanted this movie had already shown up for the other films. Iron Man and Iron Man 2's near identical domestic gross of $318 million and $312 million were my primary reasons to think that way. I was waaaaayy wrong. Of course that thinking was pre-Friday's crazy numbers.
Considering that aside from Iron Man, none of the other three primary characters had a opening weekend of more than $65 million, I am stunned at $200 million. Even combining Captain America's $65 million, Thor's $65 million and The Incredible Hulk's $55 million outright, you end up with $185 million and over $20 million short of where it did end up. Unreal.
As a side note: It's strange to think about that exactly ten years ago, another anticipated Marvel property, Spider-Man, opened and claimed the top record with a now quaint $114 million. And now there are 12 titles between the first Tobey Maguire/Peter Parker adventure and the top spot (seven of which were released between 2010 and 2012). What a difference a decade makes.
Kim Hollis: And Daron, it's also a fascinating coincidence that both Spider-Man and The Avengers beat Harry Potter for the opening record. For Spider-Man, it was the first Potter, and it took The Avengers to unseat the conclusion to the Potter series.
When David Mumpower and I were discussing potential results for this film in the days before opening, I said I thought it would take the opening weekend record. I did not, however, have any notion that it would become the first ever $200 million opener. I mean, for it to do that, it would have to not just beat Potter 7.2, it would have to destroy
I think there are a number of things that play into the film's massive success. The marketing, as has been mentioned, is just remarkable. Having the Easter eggs of various Avengers appearing in each other's movies was a fantastic way of building awareness and excitement. You also might be surprised to know that 40% of the audience for The Avengers was female - a huge number by nerd/fanboy standards. What they have done really well here is create a story and mythology that is appealing to all ages and all kinds of people. That's some amazing work by both Disney and Joss Whedon.
David Mumpower: In preparing for the release of The Avengers, I re-read some of our earlier comments. Something that jumped out was this from last year's Top Film Industry Stories: "In addition, the lead in to The Avengers went perfectly as both Thor and Captain America: The First Avenger are well liked titles. Marvel had a best case scenario summer." Thor and Captain America were the risky prospects as the comic book company established their reputation as a premiere movie producer. Iron Man was already defined in such a manner and yet what Daron pointed out above is why we are collectively stunned by this turn of events.
None of the titles released prior to The Avengers hinted at such an epic box office performance. Iron Man 2's majestic $128.1 million debut was still $23 million short of Spider-Man 3, over $40 million short of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. What we discovered this weekend is the deluxe version of Aliens vs. Predator and Freddy vs. Jason. Unifying established protagonists in the same movie fundamentally changes the scale of a project. There are no words to describe what happened this weekend, because it is singularly unprecedented. The Avengers broke the standing box office record by 22%. This is the baseball equivalent of a hitter having a 100 homerun season. And yes, the analogy holds since 3D and IMAX are the theatrical ticket sales answer to steroids.