Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
May 22, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: What to Expect When You're Expecting was expected to be the ladies' choice this weekend, but it laid an egg. The movie opened to a wildly disappointing $10.5 million. Why do you think it performed so poorly for Lionsgate?
Matthew Huntley: A few factors contributed to this dismal opening: a) intense competition from still-strong summer juggernauts (i.e. The Avengers); b) wretched reviews, which the movie's target audience of mature women are more likely to read and be influenced by; c) a less-than-dependable cast. Only two years ago J-Lo made a terrible movie called The Back-up Plan, also about pregnancy, so why should audiences trust her now? Plus, the movie just looked stupid and unfunny. Seriously, how many times must audiences endure the old "angry woman in labor" routine?
Edwin Davies: I think that people might be getting a bit wary of these giant ensemble comedies which have become in vogue since He's Just Not That Into You proved the viability of the form in 2009, and Valentine's Day blew up in 2010. However, neither of those films were particularly good, and it was clear by the time that New Year's Eve rolled around that people were being more cautious. (Think Like A Man technically falls within this sub-genre, but that had other things going for it other than being an ensemble comedy.) With hardly any real names in the cast, bad reviews and a confused marketing campaign, it was always going to be difficult for people to connect to What To Expect When You're Expecting.
Jim Van Nest: Ya know, we finally saw The Avengers and it was my wife's turn to choose the movie. And oddly enough, she had a tough time deciding between that and Battleship (she chose...wisely). What to Expect is a good example of a counter programming flick. I just think that The Avengers appeals to everyone and even the fun, explosion-filled Battleship seemed more appealing to her than What to Expect. I guess I'm saying if your big hope is that your movie is counter programming, you'd better damn well make sure that your target audience needs such a vehicle. Apparently this weekend, they didn't.
David Mumpower: I think Edwin's point is well taken just as Jim's anecdote tells the whole story here. Ensemble casts are fun for the actors in that they share the onus of opening a movie. If it doesn't do well, none of them bears the brunt of the criticism (quick, name the actor who blew it for everybody in New Year's Eve...you can't). Conversely, if the film is a hit, everybody proudly highlights it in their filmography. There is also the opportunity for a sequel, as is the case with Grown Ups and was effectively true of Valentine's Day. The problem with the concept is that few writers/directors have honed that Altman-esque ability to juggle multiple story arcs in a moving fashion. Even Altman himself struggled with the process. As great as The Player, Gosford Park and (my favorite) Cookie's Fortune were, Dr T and the Women and Prêt-à-Porter were just as big a mess. What To Expect When You're Expecting fell into the latter category as the reviews for it are of the torches and pitchforks variety. When we debated this trailer, to a single person, we despised it. Our collective thought process was that maybe the target audience, mothers, may have a differing opinion. To my pleasant surprise, they felt exactly the same way. For a weekend with three box office non-starters, I cannot describe the one with the smallest production budget of $40 million as the biggest bomb. It is clearly the least popular, though. When you are looking up at Battleship and The Dictator, you have gone wrong. To a larger point, I am dispirited to see that Kirk Jones, the director of the marvelous Waking Ned Devine, has been reduced to Everybody's Fine and this movie. He is demonstrably better than this.
They're baaaaack.
Kim Hollis: The Avengers is poised to cross the $500 million mark in the next week or so, and will become the largest non-James Cameron film of all-time by the end of May. Now that we've all had time to admire its continued dominance, let's reflect on this release. Which part of its box office dominance do you find to be the most impressive?
Matthew Huntley: Besides its gigantic opening, the most impressive thing about The Avengers' box-office run to me are its phenomenal legs. Granted, its competition since opening two weeks ago hasn't put up much of a fight, but for studio tent poles like this to avoid 50%+ drop-offs each weekend is mostly unheard of. I wouldn't rule the movie out from winning the extended Memorial Day weekend, either, and if it does, unseating Titanic as the second highest grossing movie of all time. It's unlikely, but certainly possible.
Edwin Davies: The legs of the film are absolutely the most impressive thing for me as well. Given its huge first weekend, it could easily have followed the route of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, which made 44% of its final total in its first three days, then never managed to maintain that momentum. Had it followed that route, The Avengers would have still wound up with a final tally well over $400 million, but for it to have very strong holds in weekends two and three, especially considering the kinds of massive numbers involved, is nothing short of astonishing. I'm still unsure as to whether or not it will unseat Titanic for the #2 spot, but it's got a chance.
Jim Van Nest: I think for me, the most surprising thing is that The Avengers has gone so crazy only six weeks after The Hunger Games went crazy. Looking at the history, there's been a year or so between event movies like these. 2008 - Dark Knight, 2009 - Avatar, 2010 - Toy Story 3, 2011 - Harry Potter 7.2. To see two films released this close together just tear apart the box office is the biggest surprise to me. And to think we still have Dark Knight Rises on the horizon. Summer 2012 could be a movie season we talk about for years to come.
David Mumpower: The velocity of the object in motion is what dazzles me. The land speed records The Avengers is setting take my breath away. I spent the body of the summer of 2008 analyzing The Dark Knight as the Batman movie took a run at Titanic, then the best selling movie of all time. The Avengers is openly scoffing at that pace. I mean, the stat that isn't getting enough attention is that it earned more in a dozen days than The Dark Knight did during its ENTIRE global run. How is that even possible? Avatar didn't even do that. We have spent so much time diligently researching, analyzing and evaluating these tentpole titles that have an outside shot at a billion dollar global take. The Avengers is like the first time teenagers have sex. It was done before anybody knew what was happening. It will become the number three global earner of all time by the end of this week. The producers of Harry Potter spent a decade building up awareness for the epic conclusion; The Avengers will best that number within its first month of release domestically. How is that even possible? When The Avengers hits $475 million later this week, it becomes the fourth most triumphant domestic release of all time. And it appears likely to surpass The Dark Knight's $533 million total, the one that required 231 days in release to achieve, in less than 45 days. The Avengers is the box office equivalent of a gun at a knife fight.