Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
July 2, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Ted, the movie debut from Family Guy/American Dad creator Seth MacFarlane, became the highest domestic opening for a non-sequel R-rated comedy, earning $54.4 million. How surprised are you by this turn of events and what do you take from it?
Jason Barney: Pretty surprised. I know some people who really liked the trailer, but this came out of nowhere. I think most expected Brave to win the weekend again, but this is a not only a home run for Ted, it's a Grand Slam. Most had it tracking near $30 million, so for it to do this well against four new openers and Brave is pretty amazing. It is hard to peg why this over performed so well. The bear in the ads was pretty cute, and maybe people were just willing to sit back and embrace the silliness of the concept. Whatever the reason, there is no question Ted is one of the surprise hits of the summer. For this movie to have an opening in the ballpark of MIB3, Snow White, and Brave...that says something.
Tim Briody: It's definitely pretty shocking, mostly for the size of the breakout, but at the same time, maybe we shouldn't be so surprised. Family Guy is still a thing (to me it helped that McFarlane voiced Ted like Peter Griffin), after recent successes like The Hangover and Bridesmaids, it had been a while since a big comedy (21 Jump Street), and it just plain looked funny. The restricted trailer is gold.
Bruce Hall: Well, there was a huge GI Joe sized hole in the release schedule this week, and it was apparently a wise move for Universal to take advantage of this, moving Ted in from the second week in July. Plus, as much as many adults enjoyed things like The Hunger Games, The Avengers, and even sitting through Brave with the kids, it was high time for a solidly funny adult comedy where people are actually allowed to swear a little. Well...a lot...actually. In the tradition of Wedding Crashers and The Hangover, Ted was an unexpected and welcome diversion from business as usual. For those, like myself, who patiently await the day when Seth MacFarlane will finally become powerful enough to exercise full dominion over the trembling masses of humanity, the success of Ted hastens that glorious day.
Edwin Davies: I'm very surprised by this result. I'm one of the people who really liked the early trailers and, even as someone who has lost interest in MacFarlane's TV work over the years and still thought the film looked pretty solid, the most I thought it would manage would have been $40 million, or probably less. As to why this happened, I think it's easy to spot the underlying factors, even if I personally underestimated their importance; MacFarlane has a big fan base from Family Guy and American Dad, many of whom probably wanted to see what a film from him would be like (a fact reflected in the marketing, which pointed out over and over that it was "The first film from the creator of Family Guy); there has been a dearth of R-rated comedies since 21 Jump Street came out back in March, and those that have come out in that time have been indifferently (The Dictator) or hostilely (That's My Boy) received; and, again, the trailers were pretty funny. It also probably helped that, even though it was opening on the same weekend as another R-rated film, Magic Mike probably attracted a more narrowly defined audience, whilst Ted had a pretty broad appeal.
Shalimar Sahota: When I first heard about this my first thought was that maybe Seth MacFarlane viewed Artificial Intelligence and wanted to add his own spin on the character Teddy. I don't really watch a lot of Family Guy or American Dad, but I've been interested by the zany concept and that was before I viewed any trailers. A teddy bear that just happens to be one of the guys. Simply taking a toy associated with childhood and subverting it has worked. I wouldn't have expected it to open to over $50 million, though despite the R-rating I also wouldn't be all that surprised if kids were drawn to the film too. It's nice to see audiences opting for original films this summer. I guess the success here means that it won't be long before we get a movie where Barbie leaves Ken and moves in with Sindy.
David Mumpower: We have touched upon the Seth MacFarlane aspect quite a bit. One aspect I would like to address is the direct comparison to The Simpsons Movie. No, Ted is not a Family Guy adaptation, but it is a foul-mouthed creature voiced by McFarlane. To a degree, this is the unleashed version of Family Guy themes, possibly even a South Park: Bigger, Longer and Uncut. Obviously, Ted did not do as well as The Simpsons Movie, while it decimated South Park, even adjusting for inflation. The point is that we have seen scenarios such as this one before where consumers did not realize that they had long awaited something until its release approached.
The other key to Ted's blockbuster debut is its universality. Every kid growing up has a stuffed animal that they love to an obsessive degree. We remember this from our childhood just as the parents among us know what a nightmare it is when a child loses that toy. Now, I think MacFarlane has ruined my youth with this concept that my beloved teddy bear could have grown up to become a chronic-addicted fuzzy sex machine. Still, I understand exactly why so many consumers connected to this them. Yes, I believe that 80% of them are Family Guy fans, but that other 20% represents $10 million more in the coffers, which is what was needed to break this (admittedly arcane) record.
One final note: Mark Wahlberg is having a great year. First, Contraband earned almost $100 million worldwide against a $25 million budget. Now, Ted becomes a $54.4 million opener and appears likely to become one of the strongest surprise hits of the summer.
How can we miss her if she won't go away?
Kim Hollis: Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection, the latest in a series of movies featuring the character, opened to $25.4 million. What do you think of this result?
Jason Barney: For this film to open at #4 with $26 million is pretty significant, if only because of the strength of the other films at the top of the box office. I haven't seen any of these films, but I am starting to wonder if I should. I am not in the demographic they are marketed to, but with this many of them being made, this might be the one I go and see. I understand it is in line with the other films in the franchise. I still think it is pretty impressive based on other openings, though.
Bruce Hall: On one hand, it's hard to insist that people are bored with Tyler Perry when the latest item off his assembly line opened so strong against such solid competition. It didn't hurt that GI Joe cut bait this week, and that since so many people have at least part of the coming week off, there was a lot of business to go around this weekend. On the other hand, I believe Witness Protection's $25 million makes it the third highest of those featuring the Madea character. I could be a little off on that, but my point is that Witness Protection finished right in the middle of the pack in every respect.
It's much less impressive when you look at it that way. But when you've made the same movie this many times and you STILL cover your production budget opening weekend, you're the one laughing last. Still, if you've got anything to say about Tyler Perry Presents Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection by Tyler Perry Starring Tyler Perry as Madea (still checking on that title, but that's what I was told), say it today. Because now that every African American woman over 40 has seen it, there should be no reason to discuss it again.
Edwin Davies: This is about right for Perry when he puts the fat suit on, since the Madea films in general perform better than his non-Madea ones (point of comparison: 's Good Deeds opened to only $15 million back in February), but considering that this is probably the broadest Madea film since 's Madea Goes To Jail, if only based on how easy the premise is to sum up in a single sentence, I would have expected it to perform a touch better. I also thought that the addition of Eugene Levy and Denise Richards as a couple (wait, what?) might draw in people beyond Perry's usual audience. In fact, there seem to be reports suggesting that this is the case. If so, this perhaps suggests that Perry's films are starting to see a very gradual case of diminishing returns as audiences get a bit bored of the same schtick. Still, his films cost hardly anything to make, and they all cover their budgets on opening weekend, so any decrease is unlikely to hurt him too badly, and the forthcoming Alex Cross suggests that he is preparing to move beyond just appearing in his own stuff, so he continues to be one of the savviest men in the industry.
David Mumpower: This performance is right in line with my expectations. I also feel that we are being too critical of a $25.4 million debut. Yes, this is "only" the third strongest debut for a Madea movie behind Madea's Family Reunion ($30.3 million) and Madea Goes to Jail ($41.0 million). This is missing the forest for the trees a bit, though. These films are all critically reviled with 2011's Madea's Big Happy Family being the highest rated thus far at Rotten Tomatoes at only 38% fresh. There have also been a slew of them with four Madea movies released in six years. Saturation ostensibly should have set in by now yet it hasn't. This speaks volumes about how well Tyler Perry understands his fans and continues to deliver exactly what they want as consumers. If anything, I admire the fact that he managed to reinvent the franchise a bit with the Witness Protection concept. And with a budget of only $20 million, Perry has once again delivered a marketable product at a fraction of the cost of most $25 million openers. Hollywood execs should be paying him to consult on his secrets for frugal filmmaking that appeals to the masses.
Kim Hollis: Yes, it's right in line with expectations and as long as the Madea movies keep making money, Lionsgate will keep throwing money Tyler Perry's way so that he can make more of them. I'd like to say that it'd be nice to see him explore other opportunities, but I've seen the trailer for Alex Cross and...well, let's just say that Madea looks far, far preferable.