Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
August 14, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Campaign, the Will Ferrell/Zach Galifianakis frenemy comedy, opened to $26.6 million. What are your thoughts on this result?
Jason Barney: This one might have staying power, if it can get a good enough bump from word-of-mouth. The opening probably could have been a little bit higher, as $26.6 million really isn't that impressive, but it isn't disaster status either. Again, we have to see how this plays out, but the timing just might work. With the political campaign starting to heat up, and with so many Americans believing politics is a joke anyway, The Campaign could catch on in a big way. Will Ferrell has done it before. Some of his SNL presidential impressions are classics, still talked about today. As people try to ignore the absurd charges and counter charges of the campaign season, this one might just entertain for the next month or so. People might want to tune out of the attacks and negative ads and get a good laugh at the expense of politicians.
Tim Briody: Political-themed movies almost never play well, but when you go right for the absurd (which Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis specialize in), it doesn't really matter what it's about or when it's released. The Campaign might actually have been helped by its release date as, depending on what state you live in, you may not be sick of campaign ads yet. Plus, there hadn't been a notable comedy since Ted (The Watch was doomed for months, so it doesn't count) and people were ready to laugh again.
Matthew Huntley: I think The Campaign should enjoy its moderate success while it lasts, because I can't see it sticking around very long, despite its topical subject matter. The movie is simply not that good and I found it flat, dull and campaigning (pun intended) itself with standard, antiquated humor. Other members of the audience seemed to share my opinion, as the exit reactions were pretty ho-hum and a lot of people had a "That's it?" look on their face.
Regardless, I think it will turn out to be a mid-level hit, seeing as how its budget was a modest $56 million and it's already grossed about half that, though I don't think it can count on much international help. If Warner Bros. can tie in the movie's relevance with the upcoming election, its legs could be better than most, but I wouldn't count on it. Again, it's just not that good.
Felix Quinonez: I'd say this was a pretty good performance and should turn up some profit. I can't picture this one having legs like "Ted" as I thought it looked pretty terrible and the "B-" cinemascore shows that people weren't too happy with it. But because of its modest budget, the studio should be happy with this opening.
Kim Hollis: I actually enjoyed The Campaign. It was scattershot but had a lot of laughs. I felt like my audience responded positively, too. I believe this debut is perfectly fine for a mid-size comedy like this one, and thanks to the combined strength of Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis, it can probably continue to play for awhile, particularly considering that people are receptive to any comedy that gets decent reviews and word-of-mouth (which this one has for the most part). The sillier the real political season gets, the more people will enjoy the goofy send-up of the real campaign.
David Mumpower: I too enjoyed the movie and thought it to be one of Will Ferrell's better recent efforts. Despite this, I have noticed enough hostility with regards to comments about the movie to wonder if it will stay in theaters long enough to take advantage of campaign season. Ferrell is a divisive presence and I fear that The Campaign has been deemed one of his lesser works. Those tend to die quickly as opposed to the $100 million earners that stick around indefinitely. I would recommend the movie to friends but I seem to be in the minority.
We're going to accidentally confuse this with Hope Floats. A lot.
Kim Hollis: Hope Springs, the not-as-disgusting-as-it-sounds Tommy Lee Jones/Meryl Streep sex comedy, opened to $14.6 million during its opening weekend and $19.1 million over five days. What do you think of this result?
Matthew Huntley: It's exactly what I expected, and given this is a Meryl Streep romantic comedy aimed at women, I think we can foresee a final domestic tally in the $55-$65 million range, which would make it mid-level hit based on its budget ($30 million, of which most of it was probably the actors' salaries). Streep's movies of this nature tend to have legs and it wouldn't surprise me if this film only eroded by 35-40% each week up until late September since its target demographic (like my parents) doesn't tend to rush out on opening weekend.
Edwin Davies: I think that this is a very respectable start for a film that is likely to have a very good run. The main reasons for this are to do with the fact that it is aimed at an audience that is pretty ill-served by Hollywood most of the time, all three-leads are likable, and because the film is actually meant to be pretty good. (This last point surprises me hugely, since the trailers for it were, for me, horrible and painful to sit through.) Meryl Streep's films in recent years have tended to have pretty long lives at the box office, so throw in some actual quality and this could do very well.
Felix Quinonez: I think this is a very respectable opening. It might not be huge but I can't imagine the target audience to be the kind that needs to rush out and see it opening weekend so it should hold up pretty well. Ultimately I think this will be a modest sized hit.
David Mumpower: An important aspect I would note with relation to the movie's holdover appeal is that Hope Springs earned 70% more on Sunday, its fifth day in theaters, than it did on its opening day last Wednesday. After a debut of less than $2.3 million, there were not a lot of people arguing it would earn $20 million by close of business Monday yet this is exactly what happened. Hope Springs is the blueprint example of why studios release movies on Wednesday. Building buzz via distributor confidence is a concept that still works.
Kim Hollis: I think we've pretty well established reasonable expectations for Meryl Streep's films based on her past several movies. She is a draw and her movies are designed for an under-served crowd with distinct movie-going habits. Positive word-of-mouth will keep this one performing strongly and should allow it to hang around for awhile.