Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
October 16, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Argo, Ben Affleck's latest directing effort, debuted this weekend with $19.5 million. How should Warner Bros. feel about this result?
Edwin Davies: They should feel very positive about this one. It's slightly less than The Town managed two years ago, but that film had a much simpler plot that was easier to sell (bank robbery vs. bizarre political history) as well as a romance angle that, by the nature of its story, Argo does not have. The difference between the two films lies almost solely in their respective first days (Argo took $5 million, The Town $8 million) which demonstrates just how strongly Argo performed on Saturday and Sunday. This suggests that there is already some very strong word-of-mouth building - it has an A+ cinemascore - and it skews older than a lot of other films in release. As Hope Springs proved over the summer, that's an audience which is often underserved, but who can give a film great legs. Factor in the great reviews and this seems like a very strong start to what should be a great run.
Jason Barney: This is a nice win for Warner Bros and they have to be very pleased with this opening. It did not win the weekend, but that really does not matter here. With a budget of $45 million, taking in $20 million in the first weekend is great news. The positive word-of-mouth will only help, and it will be interesting how much current events positively influence the box office here.
Felix Quinonez: I think they should feel very good about this performance. As has already been mentioned, the subject matter doesn't have an immediate appeal to the general audience so the fact that it made almost $20 million is very impressive. When you add in its relative small budget and great cinemascore (A+) I think it's clear the studio has a winner on their hands. I suspect this will show great legs and get some attention during the awards season.
Bruce Hall: The subject matter sure doesn't scream "box office gold", but the positive word-of-mouth this film is getting may worth just that at Oscar time, or so I'm sure it is hoped. Argo will be an interesting story as we get closer to year's end. It also marks two polished, solid starters in a row Affleck has produced for Warner Bros, and they have another project in the pipe. I think they love him over there.
Max Braden: It's an interesting coincidence that this movie arrives during a time of tough talk about Iran in the political campaign for the U.S. presidency, but I don't think the public had any reason to associate the two and make an extra effort to go see the movie. I think the ones that did recognized that Affleck continues to make strong movies as a director, and the ones that didn't just didn't find the material attention grabbing. Bell bottoms and sideburns are never going to sell unless they are mocked by Will Ferrell, and a rescue operation without the neck-cracking and explosions of Taken 2 just looks like a mixup with the travel bureau. I think the movie was delivered correctly to its target audience, and it brought in decent money for it. I think the bonus is that they get to count this movie in their catalog, and it make get some extra press around award nomination time.
Kim Hollis: I agree that this is pretty much a best-case scenario result for the studio, for Affleck and really for everyone involved in the making of the film. As was mentioned, the setting might be a bit off-putting because A) it feels like a history lesson and B) the look of the film is authentic, which means that all of the key players look a little bit like they rummaged through their parents' attics for Halloween attire. It gained traction over the course of the weekend, and that A+ Cinemascore is a great indicator of the positive word-of-mouth that's going to be forthcoming over the next several weeks. Critics and audiences agree, too, which means that this movie is going to be talked about *a lot*.
David Mumpower: This is exactly the sort of drama a lot of film snobs covet. The rest of North America generally eschews them. To wit, the ideologically similar Charlie Wilson's War featured Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts yet only earned $66.7 million domestically. As great as that movie is (and I would put it in the top 25 for the 2000s), its subject matter automatically eliminates a lot of North American consumers. Argo faces similar challenges, which is why $19.5 million feels like a solid win. Argo should wind up in the same neighborhood as Charlie Wilson's War, possibly earning more if it does become a major awards contender.
It's never too early to talk Oscars. Is it?
Kim Hollis: With glowing reviews and solid box office numbers, what do you think are the awards prospects for Argo?
Edwin Davies: At the moment, things are pretty strong for it. It's early days, but word-of-mouth is already strong, which suggests that it might be a popular favorite; it's a period piece that looks at a fascinating point in American history which also has contemporary relavence; and it's also a movie about movies - albeit in a roundabout way - all of which hit the right buttons as far as the Academy are concerned. They also love a comeback, and considering that both of Affleck's other directorial efforts received a smattering of nominations, this feels like the one where they will reward him for coming back from the brink of irrelevance. There are still a lot of heavy hitters to come in the next few months, but this opening weekend suggests to me that it has become a frontrunner, and will continue to be one if it maintains the momentum.
Felix Quinonez: I think it's still a little bit early to really talk speculate about the awards season. But I think it certainly has a lot going for it. Great reviews, word-of-mouth, and box office performance. I think it will almost certainly get some attention during awards season but whether or not that actually materializes into nominations or awards still depends on how the future contenders fare.
Bruce Hall: Don't look now, but Ben Affleck is all grown up. A question of relevance has dogged him for a long time, despite his having some obvious talent. Some of the flak has been warranted, some not. But he's clearly getting better at his craft, and while I agree that it's a little early to make predictions I would not be surprised to see Argo, and by extension Ben Affleck, legitimately in the mix when the time comes. This is a story worth keeping an eye on.
Tim Briody: Being only October, it's the clubhouse leader at the moment. That will likely change but I can't see it not getting a Best Picture nomination at the very least. The solid box office can only help its chances.
Max Braden: I think everyone who's anyone gives the film strong praise, and that may carry through the next three months. But I could also see it peaking a little early, getting eclipsed by flashier titles, and being seen as a pet project, given a consolation of a writing nomination but not the other categories. I don't expect any buyer's remorse from vote casters, it's just that group think can ebb and flow, and it wouldn't surprise me if this movie gets overshadowed come award time.
Kim Hollis: Argo really does have everything going for it. It's well-loved by both critics and audiences. It's going to be financially successful. Its premise is culturally relevant, and will continue to be as we move toward the election and foreign policy is discussed significantly. Argo is a film that proves Affleck is a true force to be reckoned with in Hollywood, and it really is the true front-runner at the moment. As others have mentioned, that can change as other films are released over the next couple of months, but I see no reason for Argo to receive the kind of backlash that some awards contenders do as time passes.
David Mumpower: So much can happen between now and Oscar nominations day. A little over two years ago, we all felt strongly that The Town would be a major factor during awards season. Only Jeremy Renner wound up with an Academy Awards nomination. I think we all agree that his performance was the strongest in the film and that at least the Academy chose wisely. Argo strikes me as a stronger contender due to the subject matter. It is political in the best way. Nobody has to take sides here. All that is asked of the viewer is that they be anti-terrorism and pro-heroism. That is an important consideration as the lack of controversy could propel the film further than a more divisive topic. I am inclined to believe that unless we are blown away by quality films over the next 10 weeks, Argo gets a Best Picture nomination.