Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
November 7, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Flight opened to $24.9 million this weekend. What are your thoughts on this result?
Edwin Davies: Impressed but not surprised. Impressed since the film was out to a relatively small number of screens, but not surprised because it's a Denzel Washington film and he has one of the most consistent track records of anyone working today. With the exception of The Great Debaters, which had a much smaller release than Flight, every single wide-release film he has appeared in since 2003 has opened to at least $20 million (and, if you factor in inflation, Out of Time, the film that breaks that streak, sold enough tickets on its opening weekend to be a $20 million opener in 2012 dollars). It also helped that the trailer for the film was very smartly put together - featuring some great spectacle whilst hinting at the deeper story of the film - and highlighted the involvement of Robert Zemeckis, a hugely popular filmmaker who's not made a live-action feature in over a decade. Coupled with some very strong reviews and Oscar buzz, it's not surprising that Flight took off this weekend. (Sorry, sorry, couldn't resist.)
The thing that I find most notable about this film is how low the budget was. At only $31 million, Flight is probably going to make its budget back before the week is out and will probably ride the word-of-mouth to a very strong final figure somewhere round about $100 million. All in all, this is a great result for Washington and Zemeckis.
Matthew Huntley: Completely agree with everything Edwin said, but I'd expand on two counts: 1) What I think is impressive is Flight had a higher screen average than Wreck-It-Ralph; and 2) I disagree about the trailer being smartly put together. If anything, I think it gave away too much. Granted, I have not seen the film yet, and so I can't say for sure if it gave away crucial plot points, but I do remember Zemeckis' Cast Away having a similar problem, which softened that film's impact. Otherwise, very well said, Edwin!
Jason Barney: Paramount has to be excited. With a budget of only $31 million, they will be making a profit by the time readers see this column. That is an outstanding turn around on the numbers, but that has to be one of the stories here. Every studio would love to be able to put a project together and then recoup the costs of that project in the first weekend or so. It does not happen often, but the dollars don't lie. With strong reviews, and the holiday movie season upon us, it will likely do very well in the coming weeks.
On a broader note, Paramount is loving this holiday season, and we just got through Halloween. Their two most recent projects are huge money-makers out of the gate. Paranormal Activity 4 was made for $5 million and has brought in almost $50 million domestically. Now Flight has matched its budget in a little more than a week. Yes, Paramount is very happy right now.
Felix Quinonez: This is hands down a great result. I was expecting an opening in the mid to high teens mostly because of the low screen count. I think this just further cements Denzel Washington's box office appeal. But I have to wonder if the real winner is Robert Zemeckis. He hadn't made a live action movie since Cast Away and his star power seemed to fade some after spending years on expensive somewhat creepy animated movies that never really caught on enough to justify their huge budgets. Washington was going to be fine either way but I think Zemeckis was the one who really needed this to be a hit...and it is. But I also have to wonder how much bigger they could have gotten this opening if they just released the movie wider. But that doesn't change the fact that this is a big win all around.
Kim Hollis: Washington is nothing but consistent. It helps, of course, that he chooses projects that appeal to a wide-ranging audience. Flight has an interesting looking trailer, and knowing that he is in the film gives moviegoers confidence that the product will follow through on the promise. I'm most impressed that it performed as it did on this few screens.
David Mumpower: An argument can be made that Denzel Washington is the most reliable box office performer working today. Flight is simply the latest proof of it.
Quentin Tarantino Presents… the Fourth Topic of Monday Morning Quarterback
Kim Hollis: The Man With the Iron Fists, the RZA-directed kung fu flick with Russell Crowe and Lucy Liu, opened to $7.9 million. Are these fists iron enough in your estimation?
Edwin Davies: This is towards the higher end of what was expected from The Man With The Iron Fists. Kung Fu films are pretty niche in general, and considering the weirdness of some of the casting (Russell Crowe?) and the director (The RZA?! Actually not that weird considering the presence of martial arts imagery in Wu-Tang's music, but even so, it's strange to think someone actually fronted the money to allow him to make a kung fu movie) it was unlikely to break out in a huge way. However, it cost only $15 million to make, and unless it absolutely collapses next week - which it might do, but the generally nice reviews suggest that it'll do okay - it will probably make most if not all of that back by the end of its run in theaters. After that, it's probably going to become a cult hit on DVD, and it'll probably do okay internationally. This is a win with a small w, but a win nonetheless.
Matthew Huntley: I was (and still am) excited for Man with the Fists and assumed its opening would at least be in the double-digit range (low end being $10-$11 million; high end being $13-$15 million), but in hindsight, that was probably asking for too much, especially given that Wreck-It-Ralph and Flight both opened the same weekend (why didn't the studio up Fists' opening by a week to give it some breathing room for the adult demographic?). In the end, there just wasn't enough room for it to carve much of a place at the box-office. Still, I think it will do better internationally, at least enough to secure profitability and I'll still see it. Whether other moviegoers share my same attitude remains to be seen, but I can see the movie ending up with $20 million in the U.S., which is far from great (or even good), but given its production budget, it's fair.
Jason Barney: Again, the budget is probably the best way to look at this, and Universal isn't really going to lose any money on this. The opening isn't a grand slam, but at least looking forward it will be enough to build upon. Anything overseas is going to be gravy, and Russell Crowe does tend to have a good following in other markets. The genre is an interesting choice for him, but I have not seen it yet, so I'll reserve judgment.
Felix Quinonez: I think because it had a low enough budget, that this is a totally acceptable opening. Although it won't be a smash I think the studio will at the very least break even on this.
Kim Hollis: I think this opening is fine. It will make enough money to justify its existence, and will possibly even manage to become a cult classic. I'm definitely intrigued to see it (I love kung fu movies) and I actually dislike Russell Crowe in general.