Top 12 Film Industry Stories of 2012: #8
The Two Hundred Million Dollar Check
By David Mumpower
January 4, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The fact that John Carter failed should not have been surprising. Hollywood has flirted with the idea of a cinematic adaptation as early as the 1930s. After the publication of A Princess of Mars as a serial in 1913 and then a novel in 1917, the Edgar Rice Burroughs concept became a literary franchise entitled Barsoom. By 1930, seven titles had already been released, making the title the Harry Potter franchise of its era.
A Princess of Mars is a science fiction staple, one of the seminal works of fiction of the 20th century. There is good reason to believe that an adaptation of the John Carter of Mars premise could become an iconic movie franchise. There is also ample reason to believe that any inevitable attempt to create a movie would fail.
For those of you have yet to see the movie – and judging by the box office, this is most of you – the world of Barsoom aka Mars is quite alien. The dominant natives of the planet are called the Tharks. This race is 15 feet tall on average and they have four arms each. Take a moment to imagine what a pre-CGI version of these creatures would have looked like. I presume it would be some weird combination of the original Clash of the Titans claymation and the ponytail look sported by Goro in Mortal Kombat.
Also, in a clever implementation of science and knowledge, Edgar Rice Burroughs deduced that the dense bone structure of mankind combined with the exponentially lower gravity of Mars would have a profound impact. The titular John Carter has the ability to soar into the sky as if Barsoom is one giant trampoline for the human race. A Princess of Mars is rich with imaginative ideas, none of which is particularly marketable. People don’t like to root for four-armed monsters. And a guy who can soar through the air is only interesting if there is a basketball goal somewhere in the vicinity.
Disney decided that their marketing wizardry was so polished that they could overcome such obstacles. After all, with Harry Potter ending, the marketplace was devoid of dominant franchises. By establishing the John Carter of Mars series, as many as a dozen potential films could be adapted. At a minimum, a couple could be produced before audiences grew tired of the concept.
This is the same playbook Disney used with The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe. Upon that title’s release in 2005, it quickly became one of the 20 most popular films of all time in terms of worldwide box office. The next two sequels quickly declined in value, something Disney execs anticipated. It was the rationale for their dropping the franchise after the second movie, leaving Fox holding the bag on The Voyage of the Dawn Treader. By that point, Disney had distributed two titles that grossed almost $1.2 billion. With global box office expanding so rapidly, a John Carter franchise could feasibly gross 50% more in two movies.
In order to facilitate such a box office feat, Disney decided to use their existing formula. There was already a Princess in the title of the book, after all. All the movie would need is a barrel-chested hero (enter Taylor Kitsch) and a cute creature that could be sold as a toy. That little dude is named Woola, the Martian equivalent of a puppy dog. Woola can run hundreds of miles an hour and drools all over the hero’s face. It is a formula that has worked in children’s entertainment since the early days of Hollywood. Alas, there is a reason why you did not have to buy your child a Woola toy this holiday season.
John Carter was a bust. It debuted to $30.2 million, a mediocre number for any action film. The performance looks so much worse when we factor in the budget. This special effects-intensive 3D release came with a price tag of $250 million to produce. And that wasn’t all. Since Disney wanted to launch a franchise and sell a lot of toys on the side, they spared no expense with regards to marketing. That was the field where studio execs presumed their prowess would carry the day. Another $100 million was invested in creating an opening weekend rush, a rush that never came.
The numbers speak for themselves, but I will add a little factual salt to the wound. The $30.2 million domestic debut was the 27th best of 2012. Films that debuted to higher totals include Magic Mike, The Vow, Think Like a Man, Ted and The Devil Inside. The same capital outlay could have provided a spectacular return on investment. While $350 million spent on John Carter only led to domestic revenue of $73.1 million, those five films would have returned $600 million (!). And oh by the way, Disney would have saved a quarter of a billion on the initial investment. The five titles in question cost $100 million combined to produce.
The “good” news for Disney is that John Carter has not been as big a bomb overseas. Its international total of $210 million stopped the bleeding…somewhat. International box office is always less lucrative for the distributor due to complicated tariffs and other additional expenses. The combined global tally of $282 million is nowhere near the box office revenue this film needed to turn a profit. And the toy sales were non-existent.
In the end, Disney was forced to bite the bullet and take a $200 million write-off. We should be honest about the fact that as a Fortune 100 company, this corporation expects to experience tumultuous financial waves from time to time. What is novel about John Carter is that this wound was self-inflicted. All of the signs were there that this movie would not sell. Buoyed by prior successes, Disney execs demonstrated hubris with their decision making. The failure of John Carter was total; it was also predictable.