Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
January 30, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jay Barney: This is an unspectacular opening for a film that was likely never going to be a hit. Hansel and Gretel isn’t going to hurt Jeremy Renner’s career at all, though. It has won the weekend, and with a $50 million dollar budget it will probably come close to making that back in the next several weeks. I don’t think it will have the legs to get there, but when international receipts are taken into account, Paramount won’t have lost money on this one.
Hollywood certainly seems to be in the mood to put these type stories on the big screen, as recently we have had plenty. Abraham Lincoln Vampire Slayer, Snow White and the Huntsman, and Alice in Wonderland. I’d almost put the Clash of the Titans/Wrath of the Titans in the same boat. The move to explore these new adaptations of older tales won’t end soon, either. In February we have Jack and the Giant Slayer.
Jeremy Renner is becoming bankable. While not all of his movies are hits, he certainly doesn’t have any bombs in the last four or five years. Since 2009’s The Hurt Locker, all of his roles have been productive. Hurt Locker more than doubled its production budget. He only had a supporting role in The Town, but that one more than tripled what it took to make it. Renner was great in his supporting role in Ghost Protocol and that was a runaway hit with almost $700 million worldwide. His cameo in Thor cemented his role in The Avengers, and even if he was not one of the main characters, that was one of the biggest films ever. Last fall’s Bourne Legacy almost matched the expense sheet with its domestic take, but became profitable with solid overseas numbers. It will be interesting to see where his career goes from here.
Felix Quinonez Jr.: I think it would have been silly to expect this to be a big hit. But given its relative low budget, I think the movie has performed just fine. On the other hand, even though I don't see this hurting Renner's career it does kind of seem like a waste of the goodwill and momentum he's had building up with Mission: Impossible 4 and The Avengers. I think had he picked a better project he really could have capitalized on the attention those movies have given him.
Brett Ballard-Beach: Out of the dozen films that went into wide or near wide release this month, all but two were R-rated (The Impossible and Mama were both PG-13.) That seems to me an incredible amount of "restricted" films angling for the 18 and above audience. Hansel and Gretel may have been the default winner out of a trio of dregs, but it's a victory nonetheless, probably because it was able to put the concept into the title. For a feature that has been languishing on the shelf for a year, the #1 slot is worth something and this has already become the Red Dawn of winter 2013.
Tim Briody: It's a ridiculous concept for a movie and yet it still pulled in nearly $20 million. That's impressive. It's our third one weekend wonder in January, but it certainly feels like the tone has been set for the year's box office already.
Max Braden: After Van Helsing and The Brothers Grimm, I would have expected Hansel & Gretel to make less than half of what it did. There is plenty of supernatural material on TV lately to help stoke the fires, but I do think this was all Renner.
David Mumpower: Given the quality of the trailers, I consider this to be a spectacular opening weekend. Let's be honest about what has happened here. North America has just been offered the Homer Simpson door stop for Danish trade. We took the door stop.
Reagen Sulewski: Yes, this is a ridiculous concept for a movie, but it's a *carefully* calibrated ridiculousness. There's a certain level of self-awareness in film that allows audiences in on the joke but doesn't go so far into parody that you can't respect what it's going for. Abe Lincoln: Vampire Hunter had it, Snakes on a Plane didn't. Basically, the film gets to say "We know this is stupid... but ain't it fun?" There's only so high these films can go, but this film walked that tightrope exceptionally well.
Kim Hollis: Parker, the latest Jason Statham action flick, opened to $7 million this weekend. Are you surprised that the presence of Jennifer Lopez didn't elevate this film to at least the average performance for a Statham project?
Felix Quinonez Jr.: I really don't think Jennifer Lopez's presence was advertised enough to make a difference in the movie's box office performance. From what I saw this was marketed just like every other Statham movie.
Brett Ballard-Beach: I did not see any of the marketing materials for this, and have not read any of the crime novels that feature the character, but in the wake of The Last Stand's performance, I gather this is another case where not enough was done to offer a reason for the Friday night crowd to do anything but wait for the DVD. I am still befuddled that Taylor Hackford (An Officer and A Gentleman, Ray, The Devil's Advocate) of all people helmed a Jason Statham action vehicle. That in itself suggests a muddled tone. Adding Jennifer Lopez may have been a "shrewd" move to widen the demographics, but her film career is running on fumes. American Idol may have given her last album and singles a commercial boost but that doesn't translate over to the big screen.
Jay Barney: I didn't see much in the way of marketing for this film, either. The Jason Statham movies do have a following, but from what I can recall their box office significance is marginal at best. I go to the movies a lot, and I haven't seen one of his movies....if that says anything.
Max Braden: I think Kim's characterization of it tells the tale. The advertising made it look like just another one of Statham's action flicks. Statham is good when he's good, and I think he has decent respect for that. But when he looks bored in the role and doesn't look like he's giving his best, that's not going to sell the movie. They really should have upped the Lopez factor to try to add a softer, more complex side the movie. Additionally, along with The Last Stand, January just feels like a dumping ground for what should be a summer movie.
David Mumpower: The worst part for Lopez is that she was not advertised as Jennifer Lopez. The commercial that featured her basically had her stripping for the hero. Any random Hollywood opportunist actress could have taken this role. As for the result, at some point, Jason Statham is going to have to do an action movie that distinguishes him in some way. Cosmetically, what is the difference between Safe and Parker? I -like- Statham yet I cannot answer that question.
Kim Hollis: I agree that Lopez’s presence wasn’t particularly well advertised. It really looked like “just another Jason Statham movie” and since we had “just another Arnold Schwarzeneggr movie” last week and will have “just another Sylvester Stallone movie” this weekend and then “yet another Die Hard movie” in a couple more weeks after that, what real motivation is there for action junkies to get out and see these in theaters right away? And how are they hoping to bring in a new, younger audience? Other than superhero films, what movies are truly out there that adequately target the male 18-34 demographic?
Kim Hollis: Movie 43, the film that has gotten a lot of agents fired, opened to a meager $4.8 million, with a per location average of only $2,472. What went wrong here?
Brett Ballard-Beach: Truth be told, I was excited when the red band trailer debuted many months ago. It looked fucked up. But when that turned out to be the sole selling point of the movie (look at all these stars, some of them OSCAR WINNERS and they're doing raunchy filthy things!) without even a decent framing device or connecting device apparently, there turned out to be no "there" there. Maybe if it had been found footage a la Project X? Still, it was made for only $6 million (I read) meaning all involved didn't pretend they were doing anything other than cranking out a cheap piece of shit. So, that at least, is honest advertising (and yes I still want to see the skit with Naomi Watts and Liev Schreiber home schooling their son. I don't want to see the one where Chloe Moretz gets her period.)
Felix Quinonez Jr.: To me it felt that this was a project in which the audience wasn't in on the joke. I feel like a lot of people had no idea what to make of this movie and that's never a good sign. People are still catching up on the Oscar nominees and tickets are expensive you have to at least try to give people a reason to see this movie instead of being too cool to try.
David Mumpower: The commercials for Movie 43 had the scent of desperation. I legitimately have no idea what anybody involved with this project was thinking. The entire exercise feels like a demonstration of how to exploit blackmail scenarios to force talented people into poor career choices.
Tim Briody: They made what is essentially an episode of a sketch comedy program that you can find on television, but they charged admission for it. That never ends well for anybody.
Max Braden: It's like someone was brainstorming at last year's Golden Globes open bar and said "You know, the only obvious avenue after Valentine's Day and New Year's Eve is an ensemble spoof movie" and then everyone was stuck with a legal napkin contract. Sadly, I think you could actually pull off an ensemble no-holds-barred comedy, but...they didn't. Anyone who saw the trailer had to be thinking, "Okay, but why?"
Reagen Sulewski: Don't underestimate the difficulty in selling R-rated comedy - since so many of the high points of the movie simply couldn't be shown in the ads. Now, it so happens that none of those jokes were any good in the first place, but it couldn't even put its best foot forward. I would say that the larger problem was indeed that there was just no real sense of what this is that made any sense to audiences. Jamming a whole bunch of random people together without a story or a particular hook just made no sense. Now, even with this horrible performance this weekend, it can still be profitable, but thankfully no one else is going to try to repeat this.
Kim Hollis: I never saw an ad for this film. Not one. I wouldn’t know it exists if I didn’t write for a movie site. I think the majority of North America is in the same boat.