Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
April 23, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jay Barney: I have mixed thoughts on this opening of Oblivion. Perhaps because I am so aware of discussions of box office success and failure I tend to think this weekend’s debut is a bit disappointing. Let me be clear, an opening of over $35 million is nothing to turn your head at. Oblivion was the number one film for the weekend, and it had enough press to get media outlets asking if this was going to be the start of the summer box office frenzy. This opening is substantial because Universal doesn’t have to worry about this project being a misfire. It will make money.
We are seeing a long trend of studios trying to put legit products a little bit early on the schedule to lengthen the energy that summer movies receive. The recent trend with this is clear. Avengers smashed through the box office during the first week of May last year. In 2011 Fast Five ripped through theaters with an $86 million opening. In 2010, it was Iron Man 2 with $128 million in the second week of May. In 2009, Wolverine opened in the first week of May with $85 million. My point is, with a $120 million price tag, Universal brought in a bankable star and did try to expand the calendar.
It will be a success. There is no doubt about that. The international numbers for this sci-fi flick are already extremely positive, and this domestic opening is significant enough to help. I just feel they tried to roll the dice for something much bigger and did not quite attain it. The money from this weekend in the US ensures it will make its money back domestically, and it will be really able to cash in from overseas money. However, a mega hit this is not.
Matthew Huntley: Hmm...I have to disagree with Jay on this. I never thought Universal was trying to extend the summer movie-going season by opening Oblivion two weeks before the first weekend of May. From what I've read so far, the movie's performance actually exceeded expectations, so I don't think they were banking on this being a "mega hit," per se, but rather just a hit in general, which I think its early numbers indicate. I can see this going on to make between $110-$120 million domestically and $400 million worldwide when all is said and done, but it will all depend on audience reception and how it holds up next weekend (Pain and Gain is its only competition stateside). It'll be a solid moneymaker, yes, but I think that's all the studio was expecting. I haven't seen the movie yet, but the reviews suggest it's just okay; maybe the studio execs felt the same way and they were hoping it would merely be in the black (and not necessarily the high black). I can definitely understand Jay's reasoning on this, though.
Felix Quinonez: I think this opening is definitely good, not great. I believe it can get close to at least matching its production budget domestically and when the overseas receipts are added up it won't be a smash but still a hit. I feel that the reason why it was opened in April was because the studio didn't think it was strong enough to compete with the summer releases. But when all is said and done I think this can fall into the win category for Mr. Cruise.
Max Braden: That's a great opening for mid-April, putting it in the top ten for all April opening weekends (and at least three of the higher placed record holders are sequels). I think it was apparent from looking at the trailer that this would otherwise be a B-movie sci-fi action piece with some nifty visuals, were it not for the addition of Tom Cruise. Paring him with action is still a pretty strong combination. Oblivion might have even made more but my friends and I got the sense that there was some hyped up twist to the story that would turn out to be a bit of a disappointment, so we had a little hesitation about seeing the movie.
Brett Ballard-Beach: It is a good-sized opening (Cruise's best outside of Mission Impossibles and Spielberg collaborations) and respectable for a 2013 star-driven vehicle not based on previously existing material (although it apparently boasts a mash-up of scores of science fiction plots and elements). It won't have great legs and may not make it to $100 million domestic, but it should meet the lower expectations accorded it, particularly since overseas grosses have started off strong.
Edwin Davies: I definitely lean towards the "good/great result" end of the spectrum on this one. Nothing about Oblivion suggested to me that Universal was expecting it to be an out and out smash; it was released at a slow time of the year which has only yielded huge openings for established franchises, the budget was not outrageously huge ($120 million is pretty reasonable for a sci-fi blockbuster these days, especially one that looks as amazing as Oblivion does) and the marketing push wasn't as oppressive as it might have been if they were pushing for a $50 million plus weekend. This struck me as a film they wanted to make a little money on stateside but, given Cruise's international appeal, much more overseas. With fairly modest expectations like that, this is a very good start. I think it has a shot at making $100 million, though it'll probably struggle to keep its head above water once Iron Man 3 comes out, and will probably make three or four times that internationally. Come December, this isn't going to be one of the box office stories we talk about as one of the most remarkable of the year, but it's a more than decent one.
David Mumpower: I agree with Matthew that Oblivion was not intended to extend the summer campaign even further. It's not that sort of four-quadrant film. Instead, I view this as the super-sized version of projects like Moon and Source Code. Oblivion will earn more in its first three weeks in theaters than those films managed in combination during their full domestic runs. And that is not even including the powerful overseas performance delivered thus far. Brett also makes a great point that Cruise has largely not been involved in the mega-opening weekends we have witnessed during the 2000s. Not adjusting for inflation, this performance exceeds some of his most popular projects such as Interview with the Vampire and Minority Report. It's a fine result that exceeded my expectations for the project. I wish the movie itself had been better, though.
Kim Hollis: I think this is a pretty great result, actually. Oblivion is basically a movie being sold on special effects and the presence of Cruise, and I think discerning audiences will be a little bit cautious about any such project that is not an established brand. To get off to such a solid start in advance of the summer season has to be considered a success, and the international numbers will be plenty good enough to ensure that the studio will have a money-maker on their hands.