Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
June 26, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: This is a stellar opening for World War Z. Despite the delayed date, the negative press, the middle of the road reviews, and the competition, it has managed to pull off an amazing opening weekend. Many pundits had an initial take somewhere in the mid $40 million range. The smart money was that it would come in third as Man of Steel had such huge opening. $66 million effectively beat the expectations by a third. It instantly gives World War Z a chance of making back its budget on the domestic front, and who knows how Brad Pitt will influence the international box office.
Matthew Huntley: The consensus among box-office analyst websites is that World War Z "defied expectations" this weekend, but I don't see why the expectations for it were so low in the first place. Yes, it did have production problems, but how many "regular" moviegoers are aware of this, or even care? To most people, this is a big-budget summer blockbuster with lots of special effects starring one of the most famous celebrities around. Of course it's going to open huge! It might not last a long time (even though its reviews are decent), but to say World War Z's opening is "shocking" is going too far in my opinion. Given the premise and its international appeal, I think this movie will earn upwards of the reported $600 million it needs to show a profit. Brad Pitt is a big sell overseas and the scope of the story is traditionally an easy sell to countries like China and Russia, which are fast becoming two of Hollywood's most important markets.
Edwin Davies: I agree that analysts in general over-valued the importance of the behind the scenes troubles of the film in their assessment of how the film was going to do. The news of extensive, expensive reshoots and the delayed release - coupled with general murmurings of dissatisfaction from fans of the (great) book - certainly made for good copy in the echo chamber of the industry press and social networking sites, but that clearly didn't translate to general audiences, who clearly thought, "Hey, a disaster movie with zombies. Neat." and decided to give it a shot. Divorced from the negative publicity, this is about what might have been expected from a film that promised spectacular action and which tapped into a monster that has been central to the zeitgeist for the better part of a decade at this point.
Whether that translates to anything other than a decent opening remains to be seen. Personally, I don't see World War Z having any legs because reviews and word-of-mouth aren't great, and there certainly seemed to be some frontloading over the course of the weekend. However, it'll no doubt do well overseas, and domestically it seems to have turned what everyone was certain would be a disaster into a decent result.
Tim Briody: I've been doing a Mugatu impression with my repeated "zombies, they're so hot right now!" comment. Look at the ratings for The Walking Dead; look at the buzz recently released video game The Last of Us is getting. Even a couple months ago Warm Bodies performed above expectations. World War Z opened on the high end of expectations, but I'm not all that surprised. It's still a summer tentpole. True, the marketing wasn't that great until recently, but I know plenty of people interested in World War Z and very few of them had any idea it was a book. And they all watch The Walking Dead.
Max Braden: I think you have to look at World War Z as something beyond just a "normal" zombie movie like Dawn of the Dead or 28 Days Later or even Resident Evil. The international scope of the story puts it more in the realm of disaster movies like Deep Impact and Armageddon or The Day After Tomorrow and 2012. I think the closest comparison is actually I Am Legend, which some would try to argue is a vampire movie, not a zombie movie, but really if you've seen one infectious undead horde, you've seen them all. I Am Legend opened at $77 million over a three-day weekend ten days before Christmas in 2007 and earned $255 million domestically. Holiday movies have their own special legs, but I could see World War Z matching that total number. I think the major draw is the zombies, but seeing Brad Pitt in more of an action role again (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Troy) rather than quiet talking (Moneyball and most of his filmography) is probably a big draw for audiences as well. Plus the buzz. I was not really impressed by the turbo gazelle zombies in the trailer, but the movie is harrowing without being gruesome. That may not be what Dawn of the Dead fans want from a zombie movie, but the PG-13 rating opens the movie up to a wider audience. We're also getting World War Z soon after the surprising success of The Purge, so that "coming-to-get-me" genre seems to be hot right now.
David Mumpower: I think Tim touches upon an aspect of World War Z that I consider relevant. He mentioned the strong performance of Warm Bodies, a movie that had quietly become the second biggest zombie movie of all time. That title earned $66.4 million. The reigning champion had been Zombieland, which grossed $75.6 million. After five days in release (!), World War Z has already become the most popular zombie movie ever made with $82.1 million (unless you agree with Max that I Am Legend is a zombie flick as well). While I understand Matthew's point about the expectations for World War Z being too low, the fact that the zombie genre has never seen such a performance puts the results in the proper light. World War Z has managed something that exceeds any reasonable expectation for the genre.
I absolutely agree that the insider stuff became too much of a focus. There were also some gloomy social media comments after the Super Bowl trailer failed to inspire. What happened in recent days is that mainstream movie goers were enticed by a movie with a phenomenal money shot. The heaping mass of zombies trying to climb over an Israeli wall is breathtaking. There has been so much wasted time with the 3D and IMAX aspects of movie-making that I feel like the key elements of the process are sometimes ignored. What matters is whether an idea works. That particular CGI sequence is exhilarating. And the following shot of the plane being ripped apart is almost as good. The fact that World War Z promised two scenes that spectacular in the trailer was more than enough to overcome the previous negative buzz.
Kim Hollis: It's a solid performance as well as being a number I expected to see. It's a zombie movie with Brad Pitt, after all. Considering all the reshoots, the studio has to be pretty thrilled that they've come out of this as well as they have, but the movie does still have a ways to go to even approach its budget. Yes, international numbers will get it there, but I do think it's important to keep a bit of perspective.
Kim Hollis: The Bling Ring, the Emma Watson starrer directed by Sofia Coppola, opened to $2 million in 650 locations. What do you think about this expansion?
Brett Ballard-Beach: It's not quite a successful an expansion for upstart distributor A24 (who turned Harmony Korine's Spring Breakers into the surprise top 10 hit of the year so far) but the the reviews have been decidedly mixed, and it may strike both young and old potential audiences as something they have seen (or could see) on the E! daily news wrapup. Yes, it expanded to fewer theaters than Before Midnight did last weekend but the per screen average was considerably greater. I will be curious to see which of those winds up with the "bigger" gross (relatively speaking).
Jason Barney: I think it is great. Maybe it is because I have seen a lot of the bigger films this summer, but I am just pulling for some of the smaller entries to do well. I am not saying I don't enjoy films like Iron Man 3, The Hangover III, or Fast & Furious 6, but there is something to be said about the flicks that don't receive a lot of attention. I'd like to see The Bling Ring, but unfortunately, as with many of these films, it has not come to my area yet. And it may not, which is sad.
Edwin Davies: It's an okay expansion, especially considering that reviews haven't been that kind to it. It pales in comparison to what Spring Breakers did, but I'm still trying to wrap my head around how that happened so it's probably not the best comparison. I think it'll probably struggle to maintain much interest going forward, and it'll probably tap out with less than $10 million, which is okay for a small-scale release, but not perhaps what might have been expected given the people involved. I still think that Before Midnight is the one to watch in terms of being the indie hit of the summer.
David Mumpower: I enjoy that the staff of BOP is forced to take sides between the Before Sunrise series and Sofia Coppola, two of our favorites. I agree that The Bling Ring earned an acceptable amount of box office but little beyond that in terms of revenue. A per-location average of $3,080 in 650 locations is nothing special but for such a small scale title, it should suffice. We are discussing a movie with an $8 million budget, after all. Brett correctly mentions that fledgling distributor A24 found more success with Spring Breakers. In combination, those two films cost $13 million to produce. They have earned $17.1 million domestically and $18.7 million internationally. Clearly, A24 is doing a lot right. They have demonstrated an understanding of how to create frugal yet engaging movies. The key seems to be young starlets with name recognition such as Vanessa Hudgens and Emma Watson combined with directors who know how to make a film on the cheap like Coppola and Harmony Korine. I congratulate A24 on their sensibility.
Kim Hollis: It's an okay performance. I'm frankly a little surprised the film was expanded this wide. As far as finding and marketing unexpected small hits, though A24 is certainly establishing itself as a distributor to watch.