Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
July 16, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jay Barney: He got a pass basically because he went back to something that worked recently. Enough people saw the original Grown Ups and accepted it as a normal Sandler offering.
This is a small victory for Sandler and everyone involved with Grown Ups 2, as they had the least press going into the weekend. Pacific Rim had considerable buzz inching into last Thursday. On the critical end there were predictions that it would be the third action film in a row to underperform; on the other end there was some speculation it would play like World War Z had several weeks ago. Then there was Despicable Me 2, one of the true giants of the summer, sliding into its second week.
The result is a bit of a surprise, as Sandler was on a bit of a cool streak because of creative choices and recent poor box office. The opening for Grown Ups 2 isn’t huge, but it equals/surpasses the original. Despite the very negative reviews this is a solid opening for Sandler and establishes that he is back on track. Sony/Columbia invested $85 million in Hotel Transylvania and that scored almost $350 million worldwide. Jack and Jill and That’s My Boy aren’t that far in the rear window. Doing a sequel to Grown Ups was a fairly safe gamble, and it will make money when all is said and done.
The drops will be significant, though. If it plays anything like the original, Grown Ups 2 will lose more than half of its audience going into the July 21st frame. The Heat is still going strong, and next week there are four new releases. A film that has such terrible reviews will suffer considering the number of choices out there.
Bruce Hall: Sandler and pals are a known quantity to a pretty wide audience, both young and old. Pacific Rim is not. I know which one I'd rather see, but something tells me Joe Moviegoer is a little less discriminating than I am. The movies aren't necessarily a cheap date any more. With only two major releases this week, most people went with what they knew, and presumably got what they were hoping for, if not exactly their actual money's worth.
Tim Briody: While one can argue that every Adam Sandler film is exactly the same, he finally makes his first sequel and is rewarded with his best opening weekend in years. I have to admit I'm surprised that Grown Ups 2 was able to hold its audience from the first film to the sequel despite some of the worst reviews of the year. He's certainly not as bulletproof as he used to be.
Edwin Davies: The key here, especially with regard to Sandler's disastrous 2012, is that he returned to a film which was pretty popular and people were familiar with, rather than trying something different. It's surprising that Sandler has had to wait until this point in his career before making a real sequel, as opposed to just making variations on Happy Gilmore over and over, but I think it also speaks to the position he has been put in after his recent run of form. His audience won't follow him regardless of what he does - something we also demonstrated with the commercial under performance of Little Nicky many years ago - but they will if he seems to be staying in his wheelhouse, and nothing says "more of the same" than a lazy sequel.
Shalimar Sahota: In most cases, if Sandler is playing something remotely close to himself rather than a character, then people will turn up. With Grown Ups and its sequel he’s backed by additional stars to help push over a $40 million opening. Grown Ups worked its way to over $250 worldwide. Even if the sequel ends up making $200 million, it's an easy profit. Maybe someone out there is paying close attention and reworking a sequel idea to Couples Retreat.
Max Braden: I actually thought the first movie had a charming sentimentality to it. It's safe comedy, which appeals to the broadest audience. And I think getting an ensemble of comedians together was what helped it get above the $30 million tier. My guess is that Kevin James was actually the top draw, with Shaq in second place.
David Mumpower: Grown Ups 2 is the blueprint example of why so many Hollywood execs look like chumps each and every week at the box office. Audiences are fickle, unpredictable and inconsistent. All of us have tried to quantify why Grown Ups 2 has interrupted Adam Sandler's cold streak. The honest answer is that there is no logical explanation. There just isn't. Since logic is my lifeblood, this admission is incredibly frustrating to me.
Here are the facts. Ignoring the Grown Ups franchise (?), Sandler's last five live action movies have opened to an average of $23.8 million, a far cry from his heyday when he was a mortal lock for a $35-$45 million domestic debut. Even more alarming is the knowledge that Sandler's two most recent movies, That's My Boy and Jack and Jill, averaged only $19.2 million with a final domestic tally of $55 million. His career hasn't been trending downward; it is in free fall sans the comfort of a parachute.
Sandler's 11, as I once described Grown Ups as a concept, was his last $40 million live action opener. Grown Ups 2 now becomes another $40 million opener despite the fact that the first one was terrible and the world treats Adam Sandler like he was something we got on our shoe. The entire turn of events is confounding were it not for Occam's Razor.
Basically, people are inclined to like Adam Sandler and his various awkward comedian friends. The combination of them in a movie appeals to those consumers who otherwise want to give Sandler the Mussolini treatment. Despite Jack and Jill and That's My Boy, he gets a pass even though Grown Ups 2 is an unwanted sequel to a horrible movie.
I find the entire situation aggravating because about eight box office rules are being violated at once.
Kim Hollis: I truly have no idea how this happened. I saw that tracking was indicating a big opening, but I wanted to believe that audiences had wised up to the point that they would never spend their hard-earned cash on a crappy, lazy sequel. I mean, they saw the trailer where the moose urinates on Sandler, right? Because that *should* be all anyone needs to see to understand that they never, ever need to watch this movie. Ever.
The worst thing is that I really like Adam Sandler. I haven't watched his last several movies (the last one I saw was Funny People), but I truly believe he's one of the nicer guys in Hollywood. And I actually admire that he does what he wants and has been wildly successful. I just don't want to ever see Grown Ups or Grown Ups 2, and I am actually hard pressed to find anyone who actually claims to have seen either one. This opening makes no sense to me.