Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
August 28, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Brett Ballard-Beach: As with The Cabin in the Woods, this has twists that Lionsgate dutifully attempted to not spoil in the advertising. As well, there is a sharp black comic element to the proceedings which may have put off those who just wanted out and out scares. However, I think its perceived similarity to The Purge (and without the futuristic dystopia hook that that had) may have been the nail in the coffin (or crossbow bolt in the back if you will) and led many potential customers to think "been there, done that two months ago."
Edwin Davies: Brett nails it (or impales it). I've not had a chance to see You're Next yet, but everything I've heard about it seems to say that the great stuff about it all happens in the second half of the film, and that the advertising has shown none of that because it would spoil the fun of the film. It's kind of an impossible situation from a marketing standpoint, much as it was with Cabin in the Woods, because it forces them to sell the film as fairly generic or to completely give away the good stuff. They went for the first one, which is probably the best for preserving the experience of the film, but not the best from a commercial standpoint. The big upside, though, is that the film cost hardly anything to produce and will be firmly in the black before you even get to home video sales, but it still feels like a disappointment given all the buzz that had been building for the film as we went into the weekend.
Jason Barney: I may be coming across as a little harsh, but I expected more from You're Next. Perhaps my thinking was influenced by the success of The Purge and The Conjuring earlier this summer, but this opening is dreadful. Sure the project won’t have to work hard to earn back its $17 million budget, but this is one of those times when money was left on the table. The first of the leaves are starting to turn, the Halloween candy is already on the shelves, Stephen King will have a new book out soon…seems like the time was right for a bigger success story than this.
Kim Hollis: I feel like this could have been quite a bit better as well. There seemed to be some interest and buzz in advance of release. Reviews were excellent. And yet, somehow, no one actually wanted to see the film. I'd agree somewhat that it wasn't marketed as well as either The Purge or The Conjuring, and admittedly I had no idea it was because the studio was trying to hide a fun twist. That's kind of a shame. Even though it's going to make money, the real profit will probably come from a possible following on home media.
David Mumpower: Something I find pertinent to this discussion that has not been mentioned yet is that the movie cost less than a million to produce. The horror experts at Lionsgate invested $2 million to acquire distribution rights. You're Next is such a low cost investment that even if it did not tear up the box office charts this weekend, it will still provide a modest return on investment. Also, You're Next is by all accounts good, which makes it the third such horror film since May (counting The Purge as horror) to qualify as not an affront to cinema that also did well enough at the box office.
Kim Hollis: Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen's latest film, expanded to 1,283 venues this weekend and jumped to a weekend total of $4 million, good for 10th place. What do you think about this result?
Brett Ballard-Beach: Sony Pictures Classics put their muscle behind this expanding it to nearly 1,300 screens, the most ever for a Woody. This is a good but not great result - compared to Midnight in Paris' similar but higher grossing fifth week expansion - but it is more impressive in one regard because this is not an out and out crowd pleaser like MiP. Having seen all but one Allen film (To Rome With Love), he has never made anything quite like Blue Jasmine. It walks the tightrope between tragedy and comedy from start to finish, and emerges as both triumphantly funny and shatteringly heartbreaking, and kudos for SPC in not trying to misrepresent it in the marketing. Its buzz for actress, director, picture, and screenplay noms are well-deserved and I think interest piqued by that as well as word-of-mouth should keep this playing for a while, though I don't see it passing MiP.
Edwin Davies: I think this is a very good result for many of the same reasons that Brett gave. I watched the film over the weekend and loved it - it was briefly my number two film of the year until The World's End knocked it down to three - but it is not a film with as broad an appeal as Midnight in Paris. It's often very funny, but it's also an uncomfortable study of a woman very slowly coming undone and that's a much harder sell than Owen Wilson + time travel. The reviews and word-of-mouth will no doubt carry it past the $23 million range that Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Match Point, two of his bigger pre-Midnight in Paris successes, found, and a slew of Oscar nominations will probably be forthcoming, but I would be very surprised to see it being embraced in the same way that Midnight in Paris was.
Jason Barney: Cheers go out to Woody Allen, who continues to churn out films at a pretty good clip and has more success than not. Two years ago, Midnight in Paris did extremely well; last year, To Rome With Love was a financial success even though it wasn’t great. Now it's Blue Jasmine and this film could have some life to it going forward. The weak schedule and the great reviews could add up to a lot of support in the coming weeks.
David Mumpower: I believe that one of the unheralded surprises over the past few years in the box office realm is the resurgence of Woody Allen. By the time Blue Jasmine has finished its run, Allen will have experienced his three most popular movies ever over the course of only the last five years. And I must admit that on a personal level, I look forward to his annual releases more than almost anything else on the movie schedule. He keeps coming up with great settings/premises after all this time.
Kim Hollis: You know, Woody Allen is really pretty amazing. He's directed a new movie every year going all the way back to *1982*. Since he started, the only years where he *hasn't* directed a film in release are 1981, 1976, 1974, 1970, 1968 and 1967. That's almost impossibly prolific. It kind of makes me ashamed of myself and what I've accomplished in life.
I love that he keeps finding stories to explore and that these ideas are striking a chord with audiences. It sounds like Blue Jasmine isn't quite as crowd-pleasing as Midnight in Paris, but with the raves for the performances, I expect it to be a very nice little performer, even more so worldwide. Cate Blanchett will almost certainly be looking at another nomination for Best Actress come Oscar time. Maybe the next Life Aquatic cast member for Allen can be Bill Murray.