Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
September 10, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Brett Ballard-Beach: It's more than Pitch Black (even adjusted for inflation, but not by much) and less than Chronicles of Riddick (a lot less, A.F.I.). For a sequel/reboot that very few were clamoring for (and for a hard R vs. the PG-13 of the last one), this is a decent win in the usually dead post Labor Day weekend slot. It was inexpensive (Diesel financed almost all of it, I read) and so will be profitable when combined with even modest foreign returns. But still... this is how Diesel spends the cachet that the last three F & F's have afforded him? Also, I just now realized (I know, 13 years late) that our hero's name could be shortened to Dick B. Dick? No wonder he's able to turn the lesbians straight.
Jason Barney: By a number of measures this is a small success. First, history is never very kind to films released at this time of year, but Riddick at least brought some interest. Second, the $19 million opening is not a shining success, but it pretty much ensures the budget will be made back on this one. Also, when a franchise gets into the trilogy range, often the third film is the franchise killer. It appears this entry will allow for the possibility of future installments. Finally, this continues the recent run of success for Vin Diesel. It is nowhere in the ballpark of the Fast and Furious material, but he remains on top.
Edwin Davies: This is a pretty modest success for a pretty modest film. It was a passion project that Diesel and director David Twohy clearly cared a great deal about - to the extent that Diesel only agreed to appear in Tokyo Drift if he could have the rights to the Riddick character, inadvertently leading to this film being made and his subsequent huge Fast & Furious success - and they did everything they could to get it made, including keeping the budget low and funding it themselves or through foreign companies. It'll make a profit before it leaves theaters, probably a solid one if the international numbers improve on the previous films even a tiny bit, and maybe continuing the franchise. Perhaps not as a film series, but I could see them getting a few more pretty kickass video games out of the renewed interest brought by Riddick.
Reagen Sulewski: Five years ago, this would have been going straight to DVD, so it's hard to be disappointed at anything it's earned here. We weren't that far away from having Vin Diesel be the answer to a punchline and/or trivia question, and the job he's done at resurrecting his career (admittedly, by retreading old ground) is pretty remarkable. A lot of actors wouldn't have been able or willing to go this route.
Kim Hollis: I think it's a pretty solid result. It almost feels like a fluke that this movie even exists. I admire that Diesel actually was passionate enough about the character/story that he asked for the rights in order to even return to the Fast & the Furious franchise. I agree that this could lead to some additional video games, but I also wonder if the character might not be good for an interesting television series (on cable, of course).
David Mumpower: I think Edwin touches upon the aspect of the movie making process I consider important. Say what you will about Diesel, he cares about this character enough to eschew paycheck blockbusters in favor of a project he must have realized had a best case scenario of roughly this opening weekend. Would that more highly paid actors cared that much about at least one of their roles. In this regard, Riddick will only be a modest box office win, but it is the type of win that should be celebrated.
I have been curious about the performance of Riddick for some time now in that as great as Pitch Black was, it seems largely forgotten. I talk about movies for a living and yet I cannot remember the last time the topic was broached. I suspect that part of the explanation is that Chronicles of Riddick was the worst kind of sequel: bloated, expensive and pointless. Despite its excesses, I still thought Riddick may do better than analysts expected, at least partially because the original X-Box videogame from 2004 had ardent supporters for many years. There was even enough lasting appeal that the game was remade in 2009. There is something about the concept of a villain/anti-hero who can see in the dark. The premise feels vaguely comic book-ish, at least enough to enhance interest in the movie.
Kim Hollis: After surprising last weekend with a $7.8 million debut in only 348 venues, Instructions Not Included expanded to 717 locations and took third place with a $8.1 million total. How did Pantelion Films achieve such success with this Latino-targeted project?
Brett Ballard-Beach: I knew there was a film with this name coming out last weekend, but I knew nothing else (I was focused on the insane fact that a Wong Kar Wai film - even one with a kung fu bent and bowdlerized for American consumption by the Weinsteins - was being released to the multiplexes), so I have to plead a sad ignorance on this. I have seen the fact laid out in subsequent analysis that Hispanics make up nearly one-fifth of the moviegoing public population, but bought over 25% of the tickets purchased last year. As we have noted with movies targeted at African Americans and religious/churchgoers over the last half-decade, there are audience markets here that have been ignored by Hollywood, even as films are assembled with global scale grosses in mind. I do not know the marketing strategy with this one, but even if it simply communicated that here was a fun family dramedy with a well-known television actor in the lead and an adorable moppet to boot, well that was most likely more than enough. The free press it received in the last 10 days means whatever was spent to market it was money with a purpose.
Edwin Davies: I think Brett has the truth of it with his comparison to films that are geared towards African American and churchgoing audiences. Theoretically, Hollywood films are designed to have the widest possible audience, but over time the focus has narrowed to teenage boys to the detriment of many other groups. But those groups are still out there and still go to the movies, it's just that those movies aren't designed to speak to them. The niche-targeting approach we've seen in recent years has demonstrated time and again that all it needs is for someone to actually make a film for these audiences and it will do pretty well because those audiences are so starved for stuff that actually seems to be about their lives. Instructions Not Included meets a demand that most studios don't seem to realize is even there, and the last two weeks have demonstrated how powerful that demand can be. It helps that we're in the doldrums and the market place is getting thinned out, but even at the height of summer the film's per screen average would have turned a lot of heads.
Kim Hollis: I think it only makes sense to focus more on niche demographics. Cable TV, radio and other media outlets have been doing it for quite some time. It's very possible to make a great movie on a limited budget and make money by doing some targeted marketing, both grass roots and traditional. While I always think there will be certain types of films that will appeal to the masses, it's time to realize that young white guys aren't the only people who like to go to movies.
David Mumpower: The points made about the changing demographics of movie consumption are well considered. Similar matters of practicality are why the WWF/WWE was forced to change their appalling track record of stereotypical Latino wrestlers. They realized that a much larger percentage of wrestling fans were Latino, so they were unintentionally (giving them the benefit of the doubt) spitting in the face of some of their most ardent fans. Over the past few years, caricatures have been dialed way down for that reason.
I think it behooves us to mention that this is not the only success story along these lines this summer. Eros Entertainment managed a ninth place finish in late May with Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani while Raanjhanaa earned 19th place a few weeks later. Those are the smaller scale versions of what Pantelion has accomplished with Instructions Not Included. We have a lot of under-served movie demographics in North America right now. Consumers are trying to speak with their movie ticket purchases if only Hollywood would listen. It's a smaller scale version of what transpired with The Passion of the Christ. A lot of people who otherwise ignore theaters because most movies are unappealing to them were enticed to attend. As Hollywood becomes more Big Data-based, similar steps will be taken. Pantelion's performance over the past two weeks will become part of the modeling used in future calculations.
Reagen Sulewski: I like to imagine a world in which David knew the names *and* correct spelling of those two Bollywood films by heart.