Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
September 11, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Brett Ballard-Beach: To each (half)generation, a boy band is born. "I liked the 1D in 3D posters" is as astute an observation as I can make about the band and their music. This is probably the best that could have been hoped for in waiting for "so long" to get this to theaters (I have been hearing about it for over a year). They aren't feeling Bieber's high (um, so to speak) nor the Jonas Bros' low and it will definitely make something overseas so I think it's decent. And I hope Mr. Spurlock was well-paid (Maybe he can do a combined sequel to this and Super Size Me for a followup?).
Edwin Davies: I think this is about as good as could have been expected given the time that it was released. Pop music is a fickle mistress, and while One Direction isn't exactly over yet, their fame has probably peaked to an extent and the best time to capitalize on that success would have been probably last year, right as the mania was starting to kick in. The film more than made its budget back after three days and will be pretty much pure profit from here on in, even if it continues to crater. More importantly, the band has a wider international appeal than Bieber or the Jonii had when their films were released, so it'll probably eclipse both of those by the time that everything is said and done.
In summation: If this had been released last year, we'd probably be looking at a $25-30 million plus opening weekend, whereas we're now looking at that as the range for its final domestic total. That says quite a lot about the lightning in a bottle nature of these concert documentaries.
Tim Briody: Edwin, I think the outcome would have been the same regardless of when this was released. One Direction isn't any more or less popular than they were a year ago, and a few weeks ago they had the #2 song in the country based solely on digital sales. They're still a thing, if largely hyped up. The Friday-to-Friday crash was sure impressive, though.
Kim Hollis: I tend to agree that the One Direction film did as well as it was possible for it to do, and the time of release probably didn't have much impact at all. No matter what, teens were going to run out and see it on opening weekend, so we were looking at a short-term box office phenomenon at best. I don't think it was ever going to make much more than $30 million.
David Mumpower: The aspect of time of release that matters from my perspective, Tim, is that every single second the target audience for this grows older. They're like a ticking time bomb of pubescent maturation. One second, One Direction is on the top of the world and the next they are understanding the tragic post-80s existence of Rick Springfield. There is a shelf life on these bands, which is why the Jonas Brothers movie bombed. One Direction avoided that fate but it certainly did not strike while the iron was hot as the Justin Bieber and Miley Cyrus movies managed. All in all, I consider the movie a box office win financially but also a bit of a loss in terms of opportunity cost revenue. There was more money available a year ago.
Kim Hollis: Getaway, the Ethan Hawke/Selena Gomez thriller, earned $2.2 million this weekend and was out of the top 10. It has accumulated just $8.7 million since being released last weekend. What went wrong here?
Brett Ballard-Beach: I may have been the only person in all the country excited to see this, even after it got two positive versus 102 negative reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. (That's what the goodwill from Mystery Date and Before Sunrise/Sunset/Midnight affords Ethan Hawke coming from me.) But I didn't end up going to see it yet, so I can only imagine that there were lots of others just like me across the country... what, no?
Kidding aside #1: How was Warner Bros going to market this "From the director of Dungeons and Dragons and An American Haunting?" That and Joel Silver had had his falling out with them and they weren't going to push this any more than they had to. I just really hope I don't hear any Hawke/Gomez hookup rumors down the line. I don't need that visual.
Kidding Aside #2: Watch the Before trilogy and then watch Mystery Date, especially if you've never heard of it. It's like After Hours for the early '90s teen set. Loads of fun.
Edwin Davies: It just looked horribly bland and uninteresting. Nothing about the trailer really made it seem like a must-see film, Gomez and Hawke aren't exactly draws (good though the latter can be) and there was nothing in it to inspire much interest in audiences who have probably got a little weary of action films. It felt like the dregs of the summer season and no one much fancied checking out something that they probably won't even watch on cable next year.
Jason Barney: This was a disaster from the start and nobody is going to miss the exit of this from the top 10. Films that garner such an awful rating from Rotten Tomatoes don't deserve much attention.
Kim Hollis: The studio clearly didn't care about this and with good reason. I like Ethan Hawke, too, and he's actually proven to be an actor who can typically open decent mid-level films. Getaway was just a case where there was very little marketing and the advertising that was done did not distinguish this film in any way. The horrible, horrible reviews provided the nail in the coffin to anyone who might have been on the fence about seeing it.
Kim Hollis: Closed Circuit earned just $938,153 million this weekend after debuting last week with just $2.4 million. Say something funny about Closed Circuit.
David Mumpower: They should have released it as pay-per-view.
Kim Hollis: What are your predictions for the NFL this year? What are your outrageous early picks for the Super Bowl?
Jason Barney: People may laugh, but I have the Patriots defeating the Cowboys.
Tony Kollath: As much as I dislike Jim Harbaugh, who has never ever once overreacted to anything, ever, not once... I think that San Francisco wins a Super Bowl dominated by the weather - not snow, but cold, as the Big Game will be played temperatures hovering around zero.
Aside from that, all the wild card teams will come from west of the Mississippi. Miller Lite resumes the Tastes Great/Less Filling commercials during NFL games. Exactly one divisional champion repeats. And Tony Romo converts to Buddhism.
Tim Briody: I'm going out on a limb here, but having done lots of research having gone over all the possible matchups, I've decided that the opening coin toss will be heads.
Jim Van Nest: I have no real outrageous picks for the Super Bowl, other than that my Broncos will again crush David's dream by beating the Falcons in the Super Bowl. Surprise teams will be Miami and St. Louis both making the playoffs. Another surprise will be Indy making the AFC Championship game in Andrew Luck's second season.
David Mumpower: I am going to surprise Jim by agreeing with him. I think Denver is going to be in the Super Bowl this year, but my Falcons will not be blocking the opposition enough to make it out of the NFC. I think Green Bay is going to to get there, create probably the greatest QB match-up of all-time, even over Joe Montana/John Elway in Super Bowl XXIV. And Denver is going to win. Everybody is so busy talking about Chip Kelly with Philadelphia that they still haven't realized Peyton Manning is already running that offense better than even its creator.
Brett Ballard-Beach: My bookie says to place my bet on Seahawks vs. 49ers. [Editor's Note: He is joking if you're not sure.]
Kim Hollis: Running backs will matter less and less, causing upheaval in fantasy football leagues everywhere. I believe I like Denver versus San Francisco for the Super Bowl. I got the Super Bowl prediction right last year when we asked this question in this space, so take note that this year's pick is probably horribly, horribly wrong.