Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
September 24, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: This is a pretty significant start. First, opening to a little bit less than half of the budget is great, as it ensures the film will make money when all is said and done. International revenue will be up in the air, but Jackman could be a pretty decent draw for a film like this one. Also, this opening means audiences have been able to look past the darker elements and embrace it to some degree. With a 79% rating at Rotten Tomatoes, people will be curious. Third, this continues a hot streak for Jackman, who a couple of years ago some people were wondering if his career meant much beyond the Wolverine character. Since 2011, he has had some big domestic and international draws. Real Steel, Les Miserables, Wolverine, and now this. He has definitely branched out beyond Wolfy.
Brett Ballard-Beach: A 153-minute bleakly grim, darkly palatted drama about child abduction, parental anguish, and torture managed to open on top. Slow weekend or no, it's a solid win. Considering the bounty of adult-targeted fare that will be sweeping through some combination of multiplexes and indie cinemas in the next three months, this needed to have a distinguished opening to avoid being the first casualty. Warner Bros had the faith to spring this in over 3,000 locations, and that was paid off. And as Jason points out, Hugh Jackman has built up a goodish resume of non-Wolvie hits and critical respect in recent years. He can bring an audience in for something out of the ordinary.
Edwin Davies: I kind of feel that any adult-oriented film released on this weekend could have come out on top, considering how ill-served grown ups have been over the last few months (with the obvious, tragic exception of the cast of Grown Ups) and the fact that such a dark and seemingly non-commercial film could take #1 is a testament to how much people were starved for something with a touch of substance about it. This is a very solid start, and even though opening this early probably precludes it from serious awards contention, it still strikes me as a smart move to get out ahead of the pack, if only because it means that it will be able to make a decent amount before the likes of Captain Phillips start crowding it out of theaters.
In terms of why the film was a success, I think it's largely due to Jackman, who has amassed considerable goodwill over the last few years and is still riding high of a Best Actor nomination for Les Mis. The trailers emphasized his intensity and the twisty, morally murky nature of the story, while the stars launched a great charm offensive on the night show circuit. That's a good approach to material this dark.
Kim Hollis: I think you have a good combination of talent here, with Jackman, Jake Gyllenhaal (who saw End of Watch open to over $13 million this same weekend last year) and Terrence Howard all contributing some audience to some degree. Also, the commercials really sold it as an intriguing thriller for a mature audience. I really like that Warner Bros. had enough faith in the film to release it so wide.
Reagen Sulewski: I made the comparison to Ransom in the forecast and I stick by that, after adjusting for how big of a star Mel Gibson was at the time relative to Hugh Jackman now. It's been a running theme in the past few years that you're either a franchise film that opens to monstrous numbers, or you're stuck in the mid 20s if you're an "adult-targeted" film that don't have no 'splosions and stuff. People have decided that for these kinds of films, waiting for DVD (or increasingly, digital) is good enough, and it's tough to argue with them. So I think this is both a decent result and symptomatic of what the market is actually going to support with ever increasingly expensive tickets.
David Mumpower: While we always stress that a good movie will earn a great deal of money independent of release date, we are also aware of the fact that the middling titles have a tendency to be impacted by their entry point in the marketplace. The other comparisons used for Prisoners are much more valid than a couple I am about to mention; I am simply using a couple from another portion of the 2013 offseason for movies to demonstrate the quality of this performance.
Gangster Squad, which was marketed much more significantly while featuring an even better cast, debuted to only $17.1 million. Broken City managed a paltry $8.3 million. And if we consider a film from just last weekend, The Family managed only $14 million. All of these titles share surface similarities in terms of cast quality. While Prisoners is going to win the quality debate over any of them, that plays more into the legs than the opening weekend. Judging by some similar metrics, Prisoners has performed admirably and I would go so far as to say that it overachieved relative to reasonable expectations for the project.
Max Braden: That's a great start. A murky drama in the doldrums of September with muted style for its typically charismatic lead? I would not have been surprised if it had failed to break $10 million. As David noted, $21 million is 50% more than The Family opened with and that had a lot more pep. I did see a ton of advertising for this. I guess the crowd that flocked to Insidious 2 last weekend was still in the mood for something dark this weekend.
Tim Briody: For something really freakin' dark, this is pretty good. Hugh Jackman's resume is no longer "Wolverine a bunch of times and some other stuff."
Bruce Hall: It's a slow time of year, but adult programming is usually a safe bet to start out the fall. I'm not sure a movie about child abduction is what I was in the mood for, but enough people were to give Prisoners a pretty solid opening frame. Good word-of-mouth and critical consensus should ultimately make this movie a success. Granted, winning the third week of September isn't exactly like killing it July 4th weekend, but a win is a win, right?