Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
October 2, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: This one is not on my radar screen, but it is a small film that has already made its budget back, so it has to be considered a success. An opening of $9 million in weekend one, against a budget of $8.5 million....most films and studios wish they had those numbers.
Brett Ballard-Beach: For only the fourth time in their 18 year history, Fox Searchlight pushed a film out to over 2,000 locations in its debut weekend (and since you're dying to know, the others were Street Kings, The Hills Have Eyes, and The Banger Sisters). This is probably the best they could have hoped for considering the terrible reviews (for what they were worth), the fact that it didn't star any big big names (but a slew of familiar faces supporting lead Paula Patton) and subject matter that seemed to set rom-coms back at least 50 years. Based on its Friday numbers, the fact that it cracked $9 million is a victory in itself.
Felix Quinonez: I think when you consider its budget and cast, this is something that can be put into the win column.
Bruce Hall: Speaking of opening on over 2,000 screens, Baggage Claim can claim to have not only made back its budget in one weekend, it also earned the second best per theater average of anything opening in the top 10. There's evidence that this is a niche film that successfully found its audience.
Max Braden: This opening is lower than Patton's previous feel-good romance Jumping the Broom. I like her but these movies feel awfully toothless. I'd rather see her in more Mission Impossible type movies.
Kim Hollis: Considering that Patton isn't really a big name, I think it's impressive that a lackluster movie was even able to get to $9 million. It's another testament to the fact that movies using demographic targeting can be quite profitable. I think we'll start to see this approach more and more.
David Mumpower: I believe that the most impressive aspect of this opening weekend is that Baggage Claim is well below the radar for everyone who was never going to watch it. Anyone who had shown interest in Think Like a Man and Jumping the Broom (I certainly fall in that category) was directly targeted by the marketing, which is a masterful usage of marketing dollars. Baggage Claim is a small scale triumph. I also can't help but wonder if the recent tabloid headlines involving Paula Patton's husband, Robin Thicke, made her sympathetic and thereby enhanced the appeal of her movie. I am probably overthinking it, though.
Kim Hollis: Don Jon, an independently financed film that was written and directed by, as well as starring, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, earned $8.7 million this weekend. What do you think about this debut
Jason Barney: It doesn't matter if this one opened in fifth place, the limited budget and the opening weekend are what matters here. Again, this is a small project that ended up making more than its production budget in the first weekend. Who doesn't dream of that sort of success? The film is not going to be around for long, but it has accomplished a solid opening, and everything from here is gravy.
Brett Ballard-Beach: Is this the start of a new Affleck? (Gone Baby Gone was also quite acclaimed and did underwhelming business.) After reading his profile in EW, I'm acclaimed to think he can pull off whatever the hell he wants. A romantic comedy about a porn addict (i.e. a much much kinder and gentler variation on Choke) was never gonna be just anyone's first date cup of tea, as the C+ Cinemascore indicates. The project establishes his behind-the-scenes credibility and making back a low budget is always good.
Felix Quinonez: This is another one that, when put into perspective, can be seen as a winner. The budget was already made back in the opening weekend so that's always a plus. The subject matter was always going to make this a tough sell so it was very wise to keep the budget low. I think its legs won't be great given the C+ Cinemascore but like I said the budget was already made back. But the biggest positive to take away is that it further cements Joseph Gordon-Levitt's reputation as being a talented guy who makes interesting choices in the projects he takes.
Bruce Hall: JGL took on the challenge of writing and starring opposite ScarJo and Julianne Moore in a nearly NC-17 rated movie about porn addiction. Not only is that not a bad gig, but he pulled it off in a way that seems to have opened some eyes in the industry. Here's a guy who obviously has his creative eye on more than just being a respected actor. Critics seem to have responded better than audiences in general but who knows. Someday we all may chuckle about how one of Hollywood's most acclaimed directors debuted with a movie about hardcore porn.
Max Braden: The movie may have made back its budget, but I'm not thrilled by the numbers. $9 million for stars like JGL and Scarlett Johansson is something I'd expect from an ensemble Soderbergh production, but not a straight up generic plot. I can't help but think that this coming at the end of the Jersey Shore fad may have actually hurt it, where it might have made more at the height of the fad a few years ago. Projects like Don Jon aren't going to bring JGL the kind of acclaim Affleck is getting for his directorial work, so I'm hoping JGL goes bigger if he intends to continue behind the camera.
Kim Hollis: It's a good opening for a movie that was never intended to be a big breakout. I like JGL, because he has no hesitation about just doing the things he wants to do. This project is a great example, as are any number of his indie projects that have led up to him trying something of his own. I look forward to seeing what he does next.
David Mumpower: Sidestepping the box office question, I would add that Don Jon's advertising has been driving me to distraction. Those accents are the most annoying I have heard since Edward Burns' early work in She's the One and The Brothers McMullen. If I am thinking about Scarlett Johansson's voice rather than...other stuff, something has gone horribly wrong.
Kim Hollis: Metallica had a new movie in IMAX theaters this weekend, and it earned $1.6 million. Given its $18 million budget, is this a good enough result?
Jason Barney: No, I don't think so. Even if this is a different type of entry, with the limited opening against the much larger budget, I don't see how this one makes its money back. It is possible it has substantial holds, grabs attention for several weeks, but I seriously doubt it.
Brett Ballard-Beach: Was Laser Metallica closer and cheaper on Friday night? The Wizard of Oz doubled this figure last weekend, at the same theater count. The expansion into non-IMAX theaters next Friday will help get it closer to $10 million but not much, if any above.
Felix Quinonez: I don't think so. This seems like a really odd project and I don't think too many people were asking for. This opening certainly won't generate headlines that would raise interest or convince fans who were on the fence about seeing it. I don't think it has a shot of even making back its production budget and I'm sure there was at least some marketing costs that will make this an even bigger money loser.
Bruce Hall: I would call $1.6 million in three days on 300 screens a solid start - were it not for that hefty price tag. Do you see a movie Metallica made about their own awesomeness covering an $18 million budget in any kind of wide release?
Dethklok, maybe. Metallica, no.
Max Braden: That's certainly not up to One Direction or Katy Perry snuff.
Kim Hollis: I'm going to go a different way with this, because I think that even though the theatrical result may be disappointing, this is the kind of thing that will do well on home video. In the end, I think it will make money.
David Mumpower: The budget is definitely an eye opener here. I am very much looking forward to seeing the movie, though. Its release also provides me with an opportunity to recommend the previous Metallica movie, Some Kind of Monster, which was one of my favorites of 2004. The interpersonal dynamics of this band go a long way in explaining how they wound up being so controversial over the years. They are a chaotic bunch. Through the Never's box office is reflective of the ordinary expectations for a concert performance like this prior to the debut of Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert. In fact, the best comparison for this project is probably Shine a Light, the Rolling Stones IMAX release directed by Martin Scorsese. That title debuted to a similar $1.5 million, albeit against a budget of only a million. Either the budget information for Through the Never is wrong or somebody really overpaid.