Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
October 15, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Matthew Huntley: You know, 10 or 15 years ago, like most box-office websites are pointing out, a $26 million opening for a Tom Hanks starrer would have been viewed as a disappointment, but in 2013, it's seen as a "comeback" of sorts. Just because Hanks hasn't been as strong over the past five years as he was in the late '90s/early 2000s, should we really lower our standards and consider $26 million a good opening for him? On one level, I still see it as disappointment, not only because of Hanks' popularity and continued power to sell tickets, but also because of the revered director, major studio backing and reliable subject matter. Still, on another level, namely in the wake of the behemoth that is Gravity, which is competing for the same audience and clearly winning, Captain Phillips' performance is arguably a solid one, and given that its budget is more or less half of Gravity's, and relatively modest for an action thriller, it should be in the black by the time its run is over. Whether it will show the same legs as Argo, to which it's being overly compared, remains to be seen, but I think it will stick around theaters at least through Thanksgiving, although the competition for adults is getting fierce.
Edwin Davies: I think this a solid result for an awards contender based on a real life event, but perhaps, as Matthew pointed out, a slight disappointment for an awards contender based on a real life event starring Tom Hanks. Then again, the fairly intense story and subject matter are probably a little bit limiting as far as reaching a big audience goes (and puts it very much in the same category as Zero Dark Thirty or Paul Greengrass' early film, United 93), and Captain Phillips strikes me as the sort of film that will open well but benefit from strong word-of-mouth. This might be especially true if Gravity and Captain Phillips share an audience, which seems possible to me considering they are both aimed at adults, and would suggest that people will check it out over the coming weeks after prioritizing the film that is currently the much bigger deal. A finish around or higher than $100 million might be a stretch, but the film will more than recoup its budget within the next week and will probably do very good business overseas. All in all, this is a win for Hanks, but also for Greengrass, whose last film was the incredibly costly failure Green Zone. Shifting to a more modest budget and delivering more visceral thrills seems like a smart move for him.
Felix Quinonez: I think this is a great opening. As it's been already noted, Tom Hanks isn't the draw he once was and I don't think that Paul Greengrass has ever been a box office draw by himself. But I don't think this movie ever really needed to have a huge opening to succeed. With its great reviews, it's already been labeled an Oscar contender so I think it just needed to have a decent opening, similar to Argo, to keep its momentum going. It not only achieved the desired opening but actually over performed. I think this will assure that it isn't forgotten in the Oscar race. I also think that - even though it's overshadowed by Gravity - Captain Phillips will produce some of its own positive headlines which should keep people talking about its movie. And the strong "A" Cinemascore suggests it will have great word-of-mouth which should lead to strong box office legs.
Bruce Hall: I think that if Gravity hadn't just notched the largest October opening ever, we might have had a stronger opening for Captain Phillips. But considering the unusual nature of the competition, I think that $26 million is what might - in this week's vernacular - be called a "moral victory". Interestingly, only four Tom Hanks movies have ever opened more than slightly above the $30 million mark and they were all either animated features, or based on a Da Vinci code novel. The numbers suggest that most of Hanks' work is of the "slow burn" variety.
So if Alfonso Cuaron were a little less good at what he does, we might be having a different conversation right now.
Kim Hollis: Considering the subject matter and the fact that it looks like more of a prestige picture than an action film, I think that $26 million is an admirable result. Over the past several years, Hanks has starred in some clunkers, which I think has led to a lessening of confidence in him as a topline star. Captain Phillips had the air of more traditional Hanks projects, such as Cast Away. I would agree that word-of-mouth will have this film performing quite well over the long term, particularly if it gets bolstered by some awards attention.
Max Braden: I think that's a fairly healthy number for this movie. I don't want to give too much credit to Gravity's box office black hole taking all the money, since it's not like this is on the level of a competitive summer weekend. Still, I do think the audience is similar for both movies. I also think the theme shares an audience with Zero Dark Thirty, and Captain Phillips just edged out that movie in terms of per-site average for its first wide weekend. Despite good reviews though, I'm not sure Captain Phillips will manage to match Zero Dark Thirty's $95 million total domestic run. Zero Dark Thirty just had a stronger buzz about both its actors and the bin Laden raid right in the middle of award season. I wouldn't be surprised if Captain Phillips gets some nominations, but it might be two months too early to take advantage of an award buzz bump to its box office, and isn't benefiting from the wild viewer buzz that Gravity is getting.
Reagen Sulewski: I get frustrated when people compare things against each other just because they happened in close proximity. Gravity was a sci-fi event spectacle - Captain Phillips is "just" a ripped from the headlines drama. Of course it's not going to match the number of the former, it's not offering as much to people. As far as the number itself, I would say that is about the figure you get when you're targeting adults with a great premise and star and effectively do your job of marketing it to them. Sometimes everyone just does their jobs right and we all go home happy. This is one of those times.
David Mumpower: I would add that the presence of Tom Hanks is what elevates this movie into the mid-$20s range. Otherwise, there is a distinct movie of the week vibe to the story. I mean, the actual events are harrowing enough that I think that they stand on their own but "Pirates Take Boat" is a news story for a day. It isn't a concept that automatically sells movie tickets. We are turning up our nose at steady results too often when a $55 million production's $25.7 million debut isn't impressive. Presuming that the glowing reviews and A Cinemascore create solid word-of-mouth, this drama will be in the black before it exits theaters. The only question is by how much. With a range of $75-$100 million as the likely landing spot, Captain Phillips is a solid win.