Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
November 5, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Jason Barney: This is an okay opening for everyone involved with Ender’s Game, probably a little disappointing. I don’t want to sound too harsh, but if this one just breaks even, then it won’t have met expectations. The $27 million start is good news from the perspective that the film is not going to bomb, but it is going to have to do some considerable work at the domestic box office. One thing is clear. It is not a break out success, and that is probably where the disappointment lies. If this was supposed to be a franchise starter, those involved must have been hoping for a larger push out of the gate. International money is already coming in, but I think the jury is still out on how well this will do.
As a side note, I tend to try and mark when older stars still do well at the box office, as there seems to be a “blood in the water with sharks nearby” mentality when aging performers don’t deliver on the big screen. Sometimes this is warranted, sometimes it’s highly sensationalized. For Harrison Ford, one of the biggest stars in the world at one point in time, this may make two decent showings in 2013. 42 did extremely well this year, and Ender’s Game opens number one this weekend. Sure, these films are not Star Wars or The Fugitive, but I think we can stop putting nails in his coffin.
Matthew Huntley: It was reported that Lionsgate/Summit only flipped for 20% of the production budget bill, so for them, this is a win, albeit a small win, because they'll likely recoup their costs during Ender's Game's first week of release. And if the movie can crack $200 million worldwide, then its international distributors should also be able to sneak into the black. But as Jason Barney said, this is all just "okay." I think it would have helped the film tremendously to open one week ahead of time, because despite the positive feedback (which I'm giving it anyway), it will likely get crushed by Thor next weekend and then Hunger Games two weeks later (none of this is news). Given these two juggernauts, not to mention Frozen, I'd be surprised if Ender's Game was able to stick around the entire month, even though I think it deserves to. It needed more upfront room to plant its feet.
Bruce Hall: I can't find a way to look at this result and think anything other than "meh." Ender's Game isn't a bomb, but it isn't a breakout hit, either. And that's not a good thing, since there's no doubt this was meant to be the first film in a series. I like that Hollywood continues to swing at the young adult demographic; I know I'd have jumped at something like this when I was in high school. But that's because I'm familiar with the source material. Most people aren't, and the marketing for this film didn't do anyone any favors. I'm not sure it was clear what the movie was about, and I'm also not sure (to put it politely) that Harrison Ford is what you'd call a "draw" anymore. I AM sure that the controversy surrounding Orson Scott Card's...um...beliefs...may have turned off anyone who was on the fence. I never felt very good about the prospects for Ender's Game. This is about what I expected.
Felix Quinonez: I think this is definitely a disappointing opening. It's true that it's not a total bomb and maybe it'll even break even. But I'm sure expectations were higher than that. And it will no doubt be added to the list of "Next Hunger Games/Potter/Twilight" failures.
Edwin Davies: I'll echo everyone else's assessment of this as something of a disappointment. It's by no means a disaster, certainly not when we compare it to, say, The Mortal Instruments or Beautiful Creatures, but it's still probably not a good enough opening to warrant future films considering how much the outlay was. The risk was spread across multiple companies, and most of them will probably get their money back down the line, but considering how acclaimed the books are, they all had to hope this would be a breakout success so that they could make some real cash on the sequels. This result suggests that any future films would have to be made for considerably less money.
Tim Briody: Obviously this isn't great relative to budget, but it's fine. As generally well known as the books are (or at least this book), it still falls into the "deep cuts" when you talk about sci-fi writing. That it came close to $30 million is pretty good. I really don't know how well this one will play overseas, but if Lionsgate doesn't break even, I'll be surprised.
Reagen Sulewski: I think you guys might be giving a little too much leeway by judging it just based on itself. While this isn't all that bad for one film alone, this is a huuuuge loss in terms of opportunity costs when you think about how many books there are in this series. No studio is thinking about one film when they buy a property anymore - it's all about the franchise. This is one that gets killed in the cradle. I mean, The Golden Compass did fine when you take into account international box office, but we haven't seen that second film, have we?
David Mumpower: I concur with Reagen in that $110 million wasn't invested in the project for an upper-$20s opening weekend. Ender's Game as a potential franchise has been mentioned for 25 years now. A quarter century of discussions led to an opening weekend that is inferior to that of Jack the Giant Slayer. Jack. The Giant Slayer. Come on. There is no way to sell this other than as the death of hope. It's like all of the Potter clones that targeted the tween audience prior to (and now after) The Hunger Games. They universally failed to the point that the next most successful one is Percy Jackson simply because some idiot gave the greenlight to a sequel. Simply by getting a second film, it garnered a better result than all of the Eragon type titles. And the Percy Jackson sequel failed to earn back 70% of its production budget domestically. That's what passes for a solid performance for tween lit adaptations in the post-Potter climate. Ender's Game is simply the latest in an ever-growing list of failed attempts. All this knowledge reinforces is how special The Hunger Games is for beating long odds.
Kim Hollis: I tend to agree that it's a slight disappointment, but it's also not a book series that has the kind of following of any of the young adult series it's been compared to (Harry Potter, Twilight, The Hunger Games). There are certainly die-hard fans, but the generation that would have read them as kids is...well, in their 30s and 40s now. I think it was a very difficult series to develop, particularly because the subsequent books in the series are a lot deeper philosophically and also not YA, in my opinion. They're much harder science fiction, whereas Ender's Game itself does have an all-ages and mass audience appeal. I'm sure they would have loved to kickstart a franchise - and perhaps international results will mean they can - but I really have no idea where they go with it. Speaker for the Dead? Go read the synopsis on Wikipedia if you're not familiar with the story. I just can't see it.
Kim Hollis: Ender's Game found itself the center of controversy due to the book's author, Orson Scott Card, having written various commentary pieces speaking out against homosexuality in general and gay marriage specifically. Do you think its box office was impacted by this controversy?
Jason Barney: No...not really.
Matthew Huntley: I second Jason's blunt answer. Honestly, I wasn't even aware of his comments until today, and even if I had been, I still would see the movie. Like the novel, it's not like there's anything anti-gay about it.
Bruce Hall: I do, but I can't prove it. It's not that I believe Card's detractors alone were the difference between $27 and $75 million. It's that I believe Ender's Game had a short but potent list of things already working against it, and the rather old story of Card's white hot homophobia was just one more on a list of unpleasant truths. And you've got to remember, the type of people who enjoy this brand of science fiction - basically the movie's core audience - tend to be a pretty tolerant crowd. So while I DO think it kept a significant chunk of people away, I don't think removing that issue alone makes this movie a hit.
Now, retooling the marketing push so that people have at least a minimal idea of what the hell the movie is about... replacing Harrison Ford with someone less prone to phoning it in... THAT would have helped a lot more.
Felix Quinonez: I'm going to echo Bruce. I do think it had some impact on the movie's box office performance but a very minimal one. I think the real reason it failed was because of the marketing. It just didn't seem like it was even really trying to attract outside of the already converted. Maybe they overestimated how many people were familiar with the source material.
Edwin Davies: I agree with Bruce that it had an impact, though it probably wasn't the main obstacle the film failed to overcome. Mainly, the controversy affected the enthusiasm of both the core audience of people who have read the books, and science fiction fans who haven't read them but know that they are very well regarded. Those were the very people who needed to be brought on board and to proselytize about the film to help sway people who were undecided, and for many Card's views were so repellant that they decided to avoid the film entirely. It may have not been a controversy that many people were aware of, and even when it got mainstream coverage it was for a limited time, but I think it had a real impact on a key potential audience in a very negative way. The bigger problem seems to be that the ads did a dreadful job of selling the film, but the controversy was probably enough to drag the film down from a $30 million plus opening, in my view.
Tim Briody: I know a few people involved in, or at least interested in, making sure people are aware of Card's comments. They were probably never going to see the movie anyway, so the impact at the box office was minimal. Had the movie's content reflected his views, then that might have been a different story.
Kim Hollis: I would echo Edwin's comments. When the books were originally released, and even fairly late into the Internet era, it was possible to be blissfully unaware of some of the hateful things Card has said. But with the Internet, none of that is secret. People who might once have been inclined to see a film adaptation of the book have now turned against it because of the author. I enjoyed the books, but I have to admit that they've been tainted for me. It's kind of tragic, because Ender's Game is really *about* tolerance. But I really didn't want to support the film, and I think a number of people felt similarly. I'm not saying it was a huge impact, but I do think it might have jumped over $35 million or so if the studio could have had the author firing up a fanbase.
David Mumpower: I'm going to go against the prevailing opinion here by saying that there was an impact, and it was a larger one that is being acknowledged here. My thought process is that there was enough of a concern about potential backlash that Lionsgate felt the need to distance themselves from the creator of the very work they were adapting. The producer of the film, Roberto Orci of Star Trek reboot fame, followed suit and Card felt the need to half-heartedly backtrack in a major magazine.
I think that anyone who followed the controversy formulated the opinion that Card is a terrible human being. Does that directly impact the box office of the movie? Of course not. How does the negative buzz have an impact? Four months ago, Lionsgate knew that they had an ethically tricky project on their hands. They also knew that as Matthew pointed out, their investment in Ender's Game was minimal. Had they been on the hook for the entire price, the situation may have played out differently.
Since the distributor was not forced to go all-in on the production, Ender's Game never received the ardent support that most science fiction blockbusters receive. Ergo, it was relegated to also ran status in the way it was treated from within. A big budget movie about kids fighting off an alien invasion should do better. I mean, Starship Troopers is as divisive a film as there was in the mid-'90s yet its opening weekend inflation adjusts to $38.3 million, and that movie is as direct a comparison for Ender's Game as is realistically possible. Since Ender's Game had no satirical elements, it should have been more marketable. I believe that a key component in its failure as a potential franchise is the way that Card became radioactive, even if 99% of the movie populace has no idea of the details.