Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
November 19, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: I read a couple of articles over the weekend that pointed out that while the original Best Man didn't set the world alight, it did very well on home video and became something of a touchstone for African-American audiences. (It's also proven to be fairly influential, since it served as the model for much more successful films like Think Like A Man.) That suggests to me that while there wasn't a great clamor for a sequel, there was an audience who fondly remembers the first film or grew up watching it, as evidenced by the fact that The Best Man Holiday had a great Friday, suggesting there was a fan rush to see it as soon as possible. In addition to the reputation of the film, the cast has all gone on to have fairly successful careers in their own right, so seeing them come together again appealed to old fans, while new ones might have been brought in by the tried and tested "Ooh, so many famous people!" factor.
Jason Barney: The Best Man Holiday doing this well certainly was not on my radar screen. This film pulling in $30 million surprised a lot of people, and it continues a crazy run of success for Universal. Pretty much everything they have released this year has made money. Their larger projects, like Fast and Furious 6 and Despicable Me 2, basically over performed and did better than expected. Now, even their smaller projects are bringing in a lot of dough. The Best Man Holiday continues a remarkable 2013 for them.
Felix Quinonez: This is a really great opening but I think it's something that shouldn't be so surprising anymore. Time and time again it has been proven that there is money to be made from movies aimed at African-American audiences. If you release it, they will come. And aside from that, the release date turned out to be great. Because of release date changes, Best Man Holiday wound up being the only new release and it was also great counter-programming against Thor.
Matthew Huntley: I have not seen the original The Best Man, although I do recall it being released, and because it's been so long, I guess I never put two and two together that The Best Man Holiday was a sequel to the 1999 film. With this in mind, and not that I serve as any kind of benchmark, I wonder how many patrons of the new movie actually knew Holiday was a follow-up. The point I'm trying to make is I think this movie would have done just as well had it been the first of its kind, especially considering, as Felix mentioned, the loyal demographic and the time of year (Christmas comes earlier and earlier every season). No doubt the original's home video/cable run played some role in the new one's success; I just doubt it played THAT big of a role. In any event, I was glad to see this movie lend some depth to the overall selection of movies in the marketplace. I think we're in for a big second half of November.
Bruce Hall: The African American community in particular values films that speak to a particular set of cultural values, and the effect of word of mouth might be a little stronger than most demographics. I rip on Tyler Perry a lot, but there is a real hunger in the black community for culturally themed material and the reason Perry is successful is because he fills that in ways that resonate with his core audience. The Best Man isn't the kind of movie that most people in general are likely to remember well but among African-American audiences there's a perception that Hollywood does not cater often, so when it does, and it's pretty good, make a note of it. So Spike Lee produced (and his cousin directed) a pretty decent (by some people's standards, anyway) romantic comedy a few years back, and now look! Here's a sequel! Hollywood makes movies like this as often as they make westerns, so I'd better check it out while I can!
CHA-CHING! $30 million. Nothing but net. It's all about knowing your audience.
Kim Hollis: I know people probably won't believe me, but I expected to see this kind of result from The Best Man Holiday. When the first movie came out, its numbers were actually lauded as something special. Sure, the sequel was several years later, but it brings together a lot of actors and actresses who might not be draws on their own, but in totality they can attract a significant audience.I'm not really of the belief that "if you build it they will come" is the right analysis for films targeted to the African-American demographic, because the people who are hungering for good, quality product like this are discerning and don't just run out and support a movie just because it's there. But I do believe that Think Like a Man and The Best Man Holiday were pretty apparent in their appeal and the studio did a fabulous job marketing them both.
David Mumpower: The one aspect of the discussion where I disagree is the notion that the movie would have done just as well had it been a standalone release. Yes, the gorgeous, talented cast would provide a lot of appeal but it would not lead to this type of opening weekend. The example I use to demonstrate that the branding helped is with Friday. The 1995 title opened to $6.6 million (hey, it was the mid-90s) on its way to a domestic tally of $27.5 million. Five full years later, Next Friday debuted to $16.9 million before ending with a dazzling $57.2 million worth of North American box office. What occurred was five years of consumers discovering a solid hit that proven to be an even better movie. The Best Man is the same way. Plus, the casting director of that film should still be getting paychecks of gratitude for being prescient enough to cast so many actors who would become successful. The Best Man was a career starter for a lot of talented people, and this weekend's sequel was given an appropriate victory lap as a thank you.
Kim Hollis: What are your thoughts about The Hunger Games brand as Catching Fire debuts? Do you expect a relatively flat performance compared to the first film, or do you think there will be an expansion of audience?
Jason Barney: I would expect that this is going to be a very substantial opening. I think the $152 million of the original is definitely in play, as we are looking at the beginning of the holiday round-up. Kids will be off all week leading up to Thanksgiving, and if I recall correctly, the opening of the first one wasn't paralleled with any holiday weekends. I don't want to go too far with predicting how high this will go, because there are only five films that opened larger than the first Hunger Games film. It will be big, and will probably pull ahead of the original, beyond that is just guessing, though.
Edwin Davies: I expect that it will get close to the opening of the first film, but I'm not sure if it'll top it, though only because we're talking about such big numbers that it has a huge target to aim for. In more technical terms, the decision not to add 3D means that the film doesn't have an easy way of boosting its opening, and I'm not sure how much the fan base has expanded in the course of a year. In my opinion, the most likely result is that the film equals or slightly undershoots the opening of the first film, but then takes advantage of the holidays to hold better, and potentially wind up being the highest grossing film of the year.
Felix Quinonez: I think this movie will surprise a lot of people. I know the first one was already huge but it was also well liked which means there's a lot of excitement for Catching Fire. Because of this, I think that a lot of people who, like me, caught the first one on DVD will go out to the theaters this time around. And we can't discount how much Jennifer Lawrence's star has risen. Because of this I think it could claim the second biggest opening weekend of all-time. And aside from that, its release date is way better than the March opening of the first one. Its second weekend will be helped by Thanksgiving and the holidays are right around the corner. I think this will definitely help its chances of having strong legs. I truly believe this will be the biggest movie of the year and $500 million domestically is in play.
Max Braden: I don't know about a three-day topping the first movie's opening weekend, but I don't get the sense that the heat for this franchise has waned at all, and Jennifer Lawrence is a continuing to be a hot commodity in the Hollywood press. Plus, despite continued gripes about the economy, I get the feeling that there's money to spend for movies. Macy's just recently announced a promising outlook for holiday retail sales. Even beyond opening weekend, Catching Fire is the blockbuster to see through January, including moderate competition from The Hobbit 2 and Anchorman 2.
Bruce Hall: I am going to come right out and predict that the sequel will surpass the original's opening weekend of $152 million (rubbing eyes....yeah, that's right). Even if it doesn't, I think it will outgross the original in almost every other way, and anticipation will be insane for the last two installments, where they cleverly and deviously stretched one book into multiple films (AND profitably, I might add...cough...Harry Potter....cough...Hobbit...).
As for my personal feelings, I've tried to be anything other than completely ambivalent about the franchise but I can't help it. I did read the books, and I enjoyed them a lot. But it was mostly because they were crisply paced, the characters were well defined, and the story was written in Suzanne Collins' super-efficient, easily digestible prose. The film version was enjoyable but kind of forgettable for me. It captured the overall vibe of the books, but it felt like a mechanically constructed reproduction, devoid of the same heart that made a largely pedestrian plot a lot more interesting than the books would have been in the hands of a lesser storyteller.
But I am not the intended audience here and I believe that right now, The Hunger Games is the obvious answer to "What's the next Harry Potter?"
Kim Hollis: I think it blasts past the first film and becomes the second biggest opener of all-time. I don't think the furor for this franchise has died down a bit. Since the first film was almost universally well-liked, it was also able to build an audience on DVD. Jennifer Lawrence remains the popular it-girl of the moment, and the new film is receiving absolutely glowing reviews. I think it's somewhat fair to compare to Twilight since it's a YA book that blew up huge, and since The Hunger Games crosses demographics in a way the vampire moves did not, there is lots of room for expansion here.
David Mumpower: I agree with Kim. The Hunger Games was a movie whose opened weekend took the entire industry by surprise. The fallout from that was the creation of interest from potential viewers who had been unaware of the franchise previously. Those people sought out the movie later in its release as well as on home video. What they discovered was a crowd pleasing title (A Cinemascore, 84% Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes, 7.2 on IMDb) that fostered interest in future sequels. I believe that The Hunger Games as a brand is exponentially more popular now than it was 18 months ago. I fully expect Catching Fire to become the biggest opener of 2013.