The Twelve Days of Box Office Day Ten
By David Mumpower
December 31, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Since today is the start of an overnight party for most of you, today’s column is abbreviated. Let’s keep it short and sweet for a change. The top two films this holiday season remain the same. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Frozen have been the only two movies to lead the North American box office charts since December 21st. Since that happens to be roughly the same date as the start of the 12 Days of Box Office, both titles have obviously done very well over the holidays.
The Desolation of Smaug has done better overall, which is why it has finished in first for eight of the last 10 days. Frozen, however, has accomplished so much more relative to expectations. It also has attained enough that New Year’s week is looking to be a great start to 2014 for Disney, the company that dominated 2013 to a historic degree.
Yesterday was the second to last day of 2013, and Frozen won for the second time in four days. Its $7.9 million on Monday represents a 9% increase from last Monday’s already impressive $7.2 million. Lately, Frozen has behaved like one of those sci-fi monsters that keeps growing in size to the point that it terrifies everyone who used to be able to look it in the eye. Over the last eight days, Frozen has earned $64 million. Consider that it needed 14 days from December 8th to December 22nd to gross the same amount. That statistic is the tell-tale sign of how holiday box office inflation can carry a title to stratospheric box office levels. With $256 million in the bank, Frozen has effectively matched The Blind Side and I Am Legend, other recently dominant holiday titles.
Sliding to second place yesterday was The Hobbit 2; it earned $6.5 million during its 18th day in theaters. Unlike Frozen, the Peter Jackson movie declined from Monday-to-Monday. Its 17% drop is actually a bit problematic in that almost all the other top 10 movies yesterday increased from seven days ago. Its $196 million places the sequel $32.5 million behind the last Lord of the Rings title. That is a bit worse than the last time we compared the two titles, but the difference is probably calendar configuration related. We will know for sure in seven days. Right now, I can formulate two conclusions, though. The first is that The Desolation of Smaug will be the least popular of the five Lord of the Rings films in North America. The second is that Frozen is going to out-gross The Hobbit 2, which would be a stunning turn of events.
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues experienced an even worse Monday-t- Monday decline, falling 25% to $4.4 million. With a running total of $88.1 million, it has exceeded its predecessor. As Reagen stated in yesterday’s column, any time the second film bests the original, it is difficult to complain about the result unless the production budget is massively higher. In this case, it is not so Anchorman 2 has matched expectations, no small feat for such a genuinely strange movie.
The movies in fourth, sixth, eighth and tenth place yesterday were all Christmas Day releases, meaning that they have no point of comparison today. The order is the same as it has been. The Wolf of Wall Street is the best thus far. It earned $4 million yesterday to bring its six-day take to $38.3 million. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty grossed $2.8 million and is fading a bit quicker than I would like to see. It has $28.2 million in the bank thus far.
Then, there are the dregs. 47 Ronin earned only $1.8 million and is dying fast with only $22.4 million in the bank. Grudge Match, the long awaited fight between Rocky Balboa and Raging Bull, grossed $1.5 million, but at least neither of its leads broke a hip. With $14.6 million earned and a $40 million budget, it will be in the red when it exits theaters. It is Avatar compared to 47 Ronin, though.
The rest of the top ten is comprised of two hits and one gigantic miss. Saving Mr. Banks finished fifth with $2.9 million, up 38% from last Monday’s $2.1 million. With a domestic tally of $40.2 million, the Disney film has already surpassed its production budget, which is either $35 or $40 million, depending on which prior statement is to be believed.
In seventh place is the one film still in release that has Frozen crushed. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire grossed $2.5 million yesterday, up 9% from last Monday’s $2.3 million. With $393.4 million and more holiday inflation ahead this week, it is a lock to reach $400 million now. It also appears likely to surpass the first movie, which is pretty damned impressive considering that The Hunger Games grossed $408 million. The franchise will claim two of the 16 best domestic performances of all time when this passing of the torch transpires.
Finally, I want to give special mention to the film in ninth place, Walking with the Dinosaurs. I had planned to talk about it more. Its performance has been so lackluster in such a competitive marketplace that I haven’t found much of a chance yet. The Fox title grossed $1.7 million yesterday, virtually identical to last Monday’s result. With $22.7 million earned in North America thus far, it is running neck and neck with 47 Ronin, which came out several days later. While Walking with Dinosaurs cost less than half as much at $80 million, it is every bit the bomb as that movie. I also consider it to be one of the worst financial disasters in recent memory in terms of opportunity cost.
This movie featured a known brand that had demonstrated lasting appeal to children. There is absolutely no excuse for the movie to be such an unappealing piece of dreck. All of the Christmas Day releases have been slammed for their performances yet almost all of them are doing better than this one. And none of the others had an established brand backing them. Walking with Dinosaurs is a total disaster.