They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don’t They?
Best Foreign Language Film and Those Pesky Shorts
By J. Don Birnam
February 10, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com

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Captain Phillips and American Hustle just won the guild prize for Best Edited films, and Her, The Great Gatsby and Gravity nabbed guild wins from the Art Directors. The breadth of serious contenders in this year’s Oscar race has never been clearer. And, more importantly, will an Oscar follow these victories? As I wrote in my last column, I think Captain Phillips is clearly the most deserving of the five editing nominees, but, of course, the full Academy votes in that category, so it is no sure thing that it will take home that Oscar. Nor would I read too much into this win into the Best Picture race - it remains as tight as ever and that is unlikely to change over the next few weeks. Best Art Direction is also likely between Gatsby and Gravity, so the guild win does not help much other than to cement their front-runner status in that race. Perhaps the most worrisome thing about the fact that the expected contenders are emerging victorious in the respective guild races is that the Oscars invariably do their own thing in at least one of these categories, so you can rest assured that not all of these predictions will pan out correctly.

In any event, today we focus on Best Foreign Language Film, and Best Short Live Action and Animated. Warning: the reviews/predictions that follow contain general spoilers about the plots of these films.

A preliminary note, as usual, is in order: this year marks the first year that voting on all 24 categories is open to every Academy member. Previously categories like Best Documentary, Best Foreign Language Film, and the Shorts required attending special screenings and casting ballots there. Spearheaded by Documentary Branch President Michael Moore, the Academy has now agreed to foot the bill of sending screeners of every nominated film in these categories to members. Voting is now done on the basis of the honor system - you’re asked to vote in a category only if you’ve seen the movies, but there is no tracking whatsoever. Incidentally, for those that like to hate on the Academy, this type of endeavor is one of many reasons the Academy is important - smaller, newer filmmakers will now have their products screened, essentially for free, to people who can hire them in the future. It is a subsidy of smaller films and that is a thing to be applauded.

Theories abound as to what this new rule means for these categories. Will they become like the other Oscar races, a popularity contest more than a merits race in that the movie that is most widely seen or has a big star attached to it will win? Will it be easier for big studios like Disney to push through when they have a horse in the race? I suspect or hope that most people will abstain from voting if they haven’t seen the movies. But that is definitely something that is throwing a lot of predictions here for a loop this year - before, it was relatively easy to predict these categories if you had seen the movies, because the best of the bunch almost invariably tended to win. Now it’s not so clear.

Best Foreign Language Film.

First, I confess that I regret not having been able to see Cambodia’s nominee, The Missing Picture. It has unfortunately not screened in the United States and I cannot seem to get it anywhere online. Although I have seen the previews and given that it is essentially an animated movie, something tells me it stands little chance in a category where the Academy has traditionally liked to go for much more “serious” choices.

This category is especially difficult to call this year because all four movies are magnificent and would be deserving winners. I can see the race going any of four ways.

Probably in last place is Palestine’s entry, Omar. The movie tells the story of a Palestinian man who lives in the Occupied Territories; a baker by day but a “freedom fighter” by night, he and his friends land in serious trouble after they assassinate an Israeli soldier. The title character is then forced to become an informant for the police, which puts him in danger and at odds with his friends and lover, whom he visits daily by climbing a wall in the Territories. Omar is a terrific, psychological suspense movie, even if the plot seems a tad unrealistic at times. It deftly navigates the darkest features of human nature (paranoia, betrayal, and hatred) alongside man’s individual capacity to love. The fast-paced action of the movie makes it the most exciting of the bunch, but the controversial topic that lies beneath the service of the movie is one that time and again has been resisted by the Academy.

It gets trickier from here. Perhaps the most widely seen of the lot so far is Denmark’s entry, The Hunt. This is Denmark’s second consecutive nomination in this category, and the star of The Hunt also starred in last year’s nominated A Royal Affair. This time, he portrays a school teacher falsely accused of molesting a student. The teacher’s life is shattered as the town that once loved him turns viciously against him. Like Omar, The Hunt is a taut suspense movie that evinces the darker side of human nature and has little redemptive value in its denouement. It will get many votes, as it can be enjoyed either as a respectable drama and/or a deeper allegory about the human condition. Still, I think the competition it faces is stiff and may impede its victory.

Most people are currently predicting Italy’s The Great Beauty for the win. The Great Beauty is an artful paean to life itself, told from the perspective of an aging writer who reflects upon the banality and at the same time upon the sincerity and deep meaning of his life and friends. The movie is both the more artistic and the more refined of the bunch, but it does suffer a bit from somewhat cartoonish if memorable characters. Italy boasts a whopping 13 Oscars out of only 28 nominations and while it may not win the World Cup this year, it looks poised to add a 14th Oscar to its impressive tally, at least according to the currently reigning consensus.

But I am currently predicting my personal favorite, Belgium’s The Broken Circle Breakdown, to win the first ever Foreign Language Oscar for that country. Breakdown tells the harrowing story of a couple whose life is torn asunder by the fatal illness of their daughter, and the different ways in which they cope with these events. The movie is an even subtler and deeper story about life and its sometimes harsh and seemingly random lessons than The Great Beauty, and is consequently much more emotionally engaging. It is also, by far, the most heart-wrenching movie to watch of the lot - it will stay with you, undoubtedly, for days, in part because of the honest and touching acting of the entire cast.

Thus, the race between Great Beauty and Broken Circle will serve as an immediate barometer as to whether opening up the category to the entire Academy will make this race similar to Best Picture. If this were a Best Picture race, The Great Beauty, an epic-style movie with a serious enough message but an overall satisfying story arc, would easily win, while Broken Circle Breakdown, a much darker story that leaves no one feeling happy after the movie is over, would lose. If Broken Circle wins, by contrast, it will indicate to me that the rule change did not have a significant impact.

Best Live Action Short Film

Five wildly different entries in tone and style make this a particularly difficult category, but I think we can confidently knock off one or two. The first is the saddest of the lot, Sweden’s Helium, about a dying boy and a hospital janitor who befriends him while telling the boy a story about a Heaven-like place called “Helium,” where people go after they die. You would think that, given the subject matter, this movie is Academy catnip, but I have seen similarly-themed illness/death entries lose time and time again in this category. Again, the only way I can see this movie winning is if the rule change prompts more members to vote in this race, and the movie’s “pull on your heart strings” quality pushes it over the top, as it tends to in the Best Picture race.

It is also likely safe to say that the tensest of the nominees, France’s Just Before Losing Everything, the story of a woman in a race against time to escape with her children from her physically abusive husband, will not win. The film keeps you on the edge of your seat for most of the ride, but the conclusion does not quite live up to the tension it builds.

Next on the chopping block is Britain’s The Voorman Problem, about a psychologist sent to examine a prisoner who has convinced himself and others that he is God. This type of quirky, almost hipstery short has emerged victorious in the past, but has also lost when the idea is not necessarily as novel or engaging as one would expect. I expect Voorman will fall just short for that reason - the gimmick is not quite as inventive as it sounds.

So it comes down, in my view, to Spain’s That Wasn’t Me and Finland’s Do I Have to Take Care of Everything? The first is essentially a docudrama about a group of Europeans attempting to rescue children from being conscripted as soldiers in a war-torn African nation. The movie has some pretty shocking scenes and is unapologetically more violent than most shorts I have seen, but also enjoys a somewhat redemptive if tragic conclusion. The fact that it is told from two different perspectives and sort of in flashbacks adds to the stylishness of the film and may make it the deserving winner.

But Finland’s entry is also deserving for its comedic, light-hearted value. It is about a woman and her family as they rush to attend an important wedding, and all the comical obstacles that get in their way. In the years I have been watching this race, the light-hearted comedy has never emerged victorious here, unless it contains, frankly, some quirky narrative element like God of Love’s Midas-slash-Cupid-like protagonist. Do I Have to Take Care of Everything? admittedly does not have that, so I expect it to fall just short of That Wasn’t Me to win this on Oscar night.

Best Animated Short Film

This category is slightly easier to call in that there are only three and probably only two realistically vying for the Oscar. The two entries that I can confidently mark-off are the unconventional Feral and Possessions, from the United States and Japan, respectively. The first, as its name would imply, is about a feral boy found in the woods and taken to civilization. The animation is beautiful and as stylish dark as the title character’s wolfish impulses, but the allegorical transformation of the boy into leaves and then dust by the end is likely to produce more head scratches than Oscar votes. Possessions, too, has stylistic animation that effectively summons different color palettes to contrast different states of consciousness, and tells the story of a wanderer who finds refuge from a storm in an abandoned shed whose objects come to life and interact with him. Again, interesting and beautiful, but likely too esoteric for the Academy.

The remaining three will, like the Foreign Language nominees, immediately put to the test the effect of opening up voting to the entire Academy. Before the rule change, I would have easily predicted Mr. Hublot for the win. The short tells the story of a peculiar man who lives in a highly mechanized society, and the loving relationship he develops with a stray dog made out of metal parts. The short immediately evokes a recent winner called The Lost Thing. It is emotional, well drawn, and “aww” inducing. The more emotional of the shorts has tended to win in past years in this category.

But it is not a runaway. My personal favorite was Room in the Broom, which has the largest cast of known actors as voice artists, including Best Supporting Actress nominee Sally Hawkins, and tells a sort of fairy-tale story of a witch who befriends quirky animals as she journeys through the world. Again, this short evokes a past nominee in this category, The Gruffalo, which ultimately was defeated by The Lost Thing. But, it is perhaps the funniest and “cutest” of the bunch, and with an open voting system it could appeal to more voters.

And last, but absolutely not least, is Disney’s entry, Get A Horse! Disney dominated this category at birth, winning 10 of the first 11 years. Then, after Walt Disney’s death in the 1960s, the studio all but disappeared from competition here for over 45 years. It was not until last year’s Paperman that Walt Disney Studios once more claimed an Oscar in the category, and it has a real chance of adding another one this year with Get A Horse!. The advantage for the short is clear: it played ahead of Frozen, and has the most recognized studio in front of it.

Honor system notwithstanding, I am sure that many members will not be able to resist voting for the short when they reach that race on their ballot. It is also the showiest of all the animation, transitioning seamlessly from old school black and white animation that first made Mickey Mouse famous, to sumptuous, 3D real-style animation. Its weak spot is that it essentially lacks a plot and is just a cartoon-type adventure. In the past, such entries rarely won over the emotions-driven and plot-laden shorts. But, given the popularity of Frozen, I’m currently predicting this to edge out Mr. Hublot - at least for the time being.

What’s your favorite of the shorts? You can likely check them out online or on demand, if not in theaters, and I highly recommend them as a way to gain exposure to a different narrative style than studio-driven feature length films. Join me next week when we will cover the British Oscars, the BAFTAs, and analyze how those awards will change the Oscar race as voting ballots finally go out to voting members on February 14th. I will also try to take a look at some of the Documentary races.