Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
February 18, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Matthew Huntley: This is a much-needed win for Sony, who had a rather disappointing 2013. With About Last Night pulling in $13 million on Friday alone, it was able to cover its production budget in just one day, and now, with an additional $13 million (and probably $16 million in total through Monday), it will eat into its advertising costs and profitability is all but assured.
With this said, none of it is surprising. After all, this is a romantic comedy that opened on Valentine's Day and features one of the hottest comedians working right now - Kevin Hart, who currently has two movies in the top 10. Plus, with a predominantly African American cast, which tends to have a very loyal fan base (at least on opening weekend), it's only natural the movie would succeed. This obviously mirrors Think Like a Man's performance, although I don't think this one will show the same legs. Either way, it's a hit, and now Hart has reason to start asking for a higher salary; clearly, he's a box-office draw.
Edwin Davies: I think this stands as an interesting comparison to RoboCop, in that both are remakes of '80s films, but RoboCop does the standard thing of going by name and brand recognition with a few tweaks, where About Last Night is basically unrelated to the original (which was, itself, barely related to the David Mamet play upon which it is based). It's entirely possible to go into the film not realizing it's a remake, but instead thinking it's just a romantic comedy with an appealing cast. That's basically the film's main strength: it presents itself as a fun, slightly raunchy romantic comedy with a battle of the sexes vibe. It doesn't hurt that it debuted on Valentine's Day, which is the perfect time for just such a film to come out. Throw in Hart's current hot streak and you've got a number of factors at play which helped it do pretty well.
Felix Quinonez: Any time a movie matches its production budget on opening night, I think it qualifies as a big win. And this is definitely a big win. The studio chose a great release date, a star on the rise and on top of it all, according to the reviews, the movie is actually pretty good. The movie will be profitable, Kevin Hart has another hit on his hands and perhaps Michael Ealy, who is great on Almost Human, will get some buzz from this.
Kim Hollis: I think it's safe to say that Kevin Hart is a bankable star at this point. He certainly wasn't the draw in Grudge Match, so I think you count that one as an anomaly. He has a loyal audience that is going to turn out for pretty much everything he does, and I expect for studios/producers/casting directors to take advantage for as long as the magic holds. He could have had a truly magical weekend if he had three-peated as the MVP of the celebrity game during the NBA All-Star festivities.
Max Braden: I had absolutely no idea this was releasing this weekend until I heard a roundup on the radio. I haven't been watching much other than the Olympics on TV, but I have seen a ton of Robocop advertising in comparison. I think $26 million for a February opening, Valentine's Day/holiday weekend or not, is impressive. Responses I've heard suggest that Hart and Hall, as the supporting character couple, actually steal the movie. Kevin Hart of course is on a decent streak, and having his name mentioned frequently (Let Me Explain, and Ride Along) no doubt helped push the numbers higher on opening day. I don't know if there's much crossover audience for this and the sci-fi TV show Almost Human, but I've really been enjoying Michael Ealy's performance on TV.
David Mumpower: At this point, the only way Kevin Hart could have had a better start to 2014 would have been providing voicework in The Lego Movie.
Kim Hollis: RoboCop, yet another '80s remake, opened to $21.6 million from Friday-to-Sunday and has earned $26.6 million since Wednesday. What do you think of this result?
Matthew Huntley: For lack of a better word, RoboCop's opening is more or less "standard," meaning it's fair and expected for yet another remake no one was asking for, but definitely not acceptable, not when you take into account its $100 million budget. Given the negative advanced buzz of this picture, and the underwhelming/mostly lame trailer, it's also a case of, "I could have told you this would happen."
It goes without saying the original RoboCop is still beloved and admired (it's actually aged quite well as far as its presentation and politics/satire), which makes this version an unnecessary venture by Sony/MGM. The audience that did see it this weekend was probably an amalgamation of fans of the first movie and newcomers to the character, but now that both groups have gotten a chance to sample it, I'm certain the word-of-mouth will be lousy and the movie won't end up with much more than $50 million in total. I'd like to think this would be put the kibosh on superfluous '80s remakes, but I'm not that optimistic.
Edwin Davies: I'm more positive about its prospects than I was on Friday morning. Those first two days were pretty horrible, and suggest that opening on a Wednesday was, at least from a PR perspective, a pretty poor choice. I don't know if those two days siphoned off much demand for the film, especially considering that it rebounded decently enough on the weekend itself, but the last thing you want when you release a film is for people to start talking about how bad the first couple of days are. For a remake that no one was that excited for, and which a lot of people seemed to be actively dreading, this isn't the worst result in the world, though it feels like it could kill off any franchise hope the studio has since it's pretty much guaranteed not to meet its $100 million budget. Unless it hits it big overseas (and I mean, huge, like earns-half-a-billion-dollars-worldwide huge) then I can't see this being anything other than a one-off, even if it might just squeak into the black when all is said and done.
Considering how iconic the character is and how much potential there is to make a good RoboCop movie (even if, realistically, that's actually only been done once before) this has to feel like a missed opportunity, from both a commercial and creative perspective.
Jason Barney: I agree with the missed opportunity that has been discussed above, and am saddened this will not be a success. Perhaps audiences are starting to suffer from remake fatigue. The first RoboCop was such a great movie, it was one of the first violent action flicks my parents let me see, and it has a special place in my video library. The Star Trek reboot worked. Planet of the Apes is returning as a franchise. You would think for this film to be a failure, it would have to be really bad to watch....and it appears this is what has happened.
$26.6 million is well below what this should have earned and I think a $50 million domestic take is overly optimistic. Something tells me most of the people who were going to go out to see this already have.....not a good sign for film that only made 25% of its budget over an extended weekend. This is having some degree of overseas success where it has amassed $69 million. Like Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, which has done much better abroad, foreign moviegoers seem more interested.
I will see it. I hope it isn't too bad.
Felix Quinonez: I am very surprised by this result. I really thought that people were a lot more excited for it. And I actually think it looks pretty entertaining. But the fact is that the studio was hoping for at least $20 million more during the long weekend and with its high budget, it's hard to deny that RoboCop disappointed. Not only that but even with the holiday weekend boost, it still only made $21 million Friday-to-Sunday. And because its opening weekend was at least somewhat inflated, I see a big drop next weekend and very little chance of strong legs.
Max Braden: I'm disappointed too. For one, for all the advertising I saw for this movie, I would have expected it to beat About Last Night (I can understand coming in second to The LEGO blockbuster, even in its second week). But I was actually looking forward to the movie based on the trailer. I had no interest in the remake of Total Recall, in part because it looked too slick. This RoboCop remake looked like a good balance between an update and remaining true to the original with no overuse of modern special effects. I suspect this result means we won't see a sequel, but I sure would be interested in it as a TV series.
Kim Hollis: Perhaps if Kevin Hart had starred as RoboCop this would have had a significantly better performance. I actually am somewhat impressed with its recovery over the weekend. Honestly, I was shocked at any high expectations for it in the first place. It's not a film that was begging to be remade (for fans of the original, it seems heretical and for those who aren't fans, I'm not sure why they'd care about it anyway). It really is disappointing that for the most part over the Valentine's Day weekend, studios couldn't do any better than a bunch of remakes of films from the same era and a lousy adaptation of a magical book.