They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don’t They?
Document This: A Look at the Documentary Races
By J. Don Birnam
February 24, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Best Animated Feature
No one really stands a chance to beat Frozen here, so it is not worth spending too much time on this category. The Internet has made rumblings that some votes will go to The Wind Rises, given that it is the final chapter of a beloved animation master’s oeuvre. As usual, I am skeptical. Honestly, who has heard of or seen this movie? Do we really think members of the Academy have? The guy who does movie lighting and sound effects? I seriously doubt it. Moreover, the movie, although beautiful, tells the story of a Japanese boy who constructs airplanes later used against the United States in World War II. Again, do we really think something like this has a chance against a movie that has captivated American audiences and that has likely made the children of Academy members drag their parents repeatedly to? Don’t bet on it.
The rest of the field is happy to be nominated, and stands even less of a chance (full disclosure: I have yet to see Ernest & Celestine).
More interesting to discuss about this race is that it marks the first time in the history of the category, which dates to 2001, that Pixar has failed to receive a nomination. More stunningly still is that if Frozen does win, it will be the first time in the history of the award that Disney wins the trophy. Thus would be written the next chapter in a pretty remarkable story. Many argue that the category was an indirect result of Disney’s Best Picture nomination for Beauty and the Beast in 1992. Due to fear that an animated movie could one day win Best Picture, a ghettoized category, so to speak, was created.
A less cynical view is that it was created to reward and encourage movies that are otherwise not going to receive Academy-wide acclaim because “serious” minded voters will resist it. Still, some argue, the existence of the category allows the Academy to avoid recognizing animation in the Best Picture race, like “Best Foreign Language Film” has permitted them over the years to avoid rewarding a foreign language film for Best Picture.
Whatever your view regarding the usefulness or desirability of the Best Animated Feature category, what is remarkable is the resurgence the genre has enjoyed in the last decade. Academy rules state that there will be five nominees for Best Animated Feature only if 16 or more eligible films are submitted for consideration in a given year; otherwise, the list of nominees is shortened to three. Four of the last five years have resulted in five nominees, whereas that happened only once in the first eight years of the award. So, things are looking up for animation, whether the actors’ branch likes it or not. Frozen is set to join the list of amazing winners, from The Incredibles to Up and WALL-E, and represents a worthy and admirable entry as the category reaches its teenage years.
Best Documentary Feature
After a few years of enjoying a simplified Best Documentary category, boiled down to one or two contenders, Oscar prognosticators face a wide open race for this Oscar. One film, Cutie and the Boxer, I think can likely be easily discarded. It focuses on the complex relationship between an old and somewhat obscure Japanese artist, and his younger but aging wife as she tries to unravel herself from under her husband’s influential grip and discover her own artistic voice. Although the movie evokes deep, sincere emotions about two very complex people and about complex subjects of life, ultimately, one cannot help but wonder “Who cares?” about their dysfunctions.
The movie would have worked better as a somewhat fictionalized account, instead of having to compete as a documentary with serious subjects like the Egyptian Revolution and the American War on Terror, which forces the movie to artificially inflate the importance of a somewhat tedious relationship between two cantankerous artists. I guess the “cantankerous artists” line should sound a red flag that the old Academy members will like it, but I refuse to believe that they will actually go for this movie when more important (and even uplifting) pieces are there to be rewarded.
The Square, a worthy contender out of Egypt, follows a group of Egyptians from the fall of the Mubarak region as a result of the Tahir Square revolts, to present day Egypt and military rule after the brief flirtation by the people with the Muslim Brotherhood. In terms of degree of difficulty, this movie, shot over the course of several years and capturing historical and important events as they developed, should win. But it suffers from a fundamental narrative flaw in that it fails to poignantly elucidate the motivations of the protesters it follows. We know they want “democracy” and “freedom.” But what does that mean for them? What is their particular objection to each phase of the revolution or each new regime? A valiant effort, but unless they go for the degree of difficulty aspect, I do not see it winning. Nevertheless, note that The Square won the PGA, which uses a preferential ballot, so this may be a sign of its strength.
My favorite of the year, Dirty Wars, is also unlikely to walk home a winner, mainly because the Academy has steadfastly refused (with one lone exception for Taxi to the Dark Side) to award in this race pieces that deal with the war on terror and/or America’s strategies abroad. Like The Square, “Wars” suffers from a somewhat disjointed and unclear narrative arc. It follows a daring investigative journalist as he travels to the sight of mysterious civilian deaths in Afghanistan. He discovers that the United States and its allies attempted to cover up the deaths, and that discovery leads him to follow in the footsteps of the Joint Special Operations Command and their missions and strikes, including one against a U.S. citizen, in other hot spots of the world. The film is the most interesting and daring of the bunch, but, again, lacks a clearly unifying or overarching theme, or at the least a central plot to cohere around. You feel that the film and subject matter are important, but it is hard to discern why or how it can be distinguished from the other current affairs entry, The Square.
Most pundits think that the front-runner is The Act of Killing, a movie that follows former death-squad members from the Indonesian Government as they attempt to recreate their 50-year-old crimes in a fictionalized film of their own, and the different emotions that these now elderly individuals experience as they embark on this journey. The film has all the trappings of a more stylized documentary: it is a movie about making a movie, but not just any movie, one that recounts horrific genocidal crimes that have gone unpunished by the global community of nations. So the gravitas is definitely there. Yet the main protagonists are so grotesque and so unlikable - they are depicted at times laughing jovially so that even their acts of contrition seem too-little too-late - that it may hurt the film’s chances. But, it must be said that this movie is the critical darling, has won the BAFTA, and I can clearly see that the artistic merit of the movie lies precisely in telling the horrific story and magnificently capturing the transformative power that reenacting the crimes had on the criminals. So it is probably your safest best for your Oscar pool.
However, the last entry, 20 Feet from Stardom, should not be lightly ignored. The story follows the lives of a group of back-up singers to mega-celebrities like Sting and Bruce Springsteen. It details the importance of their roles in making a hit out of songs that are “today” in the everyday vernacular, explores some of the reasons why many of them have never achieved fame on their own, and follows some of them through trying and difficult moments in their lives and careers. The movie, like last year’s winner Searching for Sugarman, is ultimately an uplifting music documentary and there is a chance that history can repeat itself. Recall that approximately 80% of Academy members have never been nominated for an Oscar. So, it is not unfathomable to think that many will identify with the essential person whose career always stays in the shadow of the main celebrities. Of course, the fact that Sugarman just won last year may prompt other members to seek something different this time around. It is for that reason that I am predicting The Act of Killing as of right now, but I think that any of the four other than Cutie and The Boxer stand a real chance of winning.
Best Documentary Short Subject
The Documentary Shorts offer some stories that are incredibly parallel both to the feature-length films, and, remarkably, to each other. The first we can discard is The Cavedigger, the odd story that follows an eccentric Arizona artist who dedicates his life to building residences inside rock formations in people’s property. The film follows, you guessed it, his trials and tribulations as an artist, but is far less uplifting and, frankly, far less interesting than 20 Feet from Stardom. It is ultimately, to put it bluntly, hard to find much inspiration in a man who builds caves for a living, beautiful as they may be.
I would also discount the chances of Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall to take home the Oscar. This short follows a World War II veteran in his dying days in a hospice center established by members of a maximum security prison, where he is serving life for murder. The piece reminds me of the winners in this category in the last two years. Two years ago, the Oscar went to Strangers No More, about a school in Israel where a remarkably generous and devoted group of teachers dedicated their lives to incorporating children of refugees into the community by teaching them Hebrew and English. Then, last year, Saving Face, a movie about a compassionate Pakistani plastic surgeon who devotes a part of his life to operating on female victims of acid attacks. To be sure, it may very well be that those movies won not because of the talent of the documentarian but because of the nobleness of the enterprise they followed.
Regardless, it is clear that Prison Terminal is trying to tap into the emotions that took these two movies to the podium to the extent it narrates the noble volunteer work that inmates serving life sentences do to care for the elderly among them. But Prison Terminal falls well short of the two winning efforts I just described, because it cannot help but focus on the patient who is in the title of the movie itself, making the movie seem less important and ultimately losing the focus on the true heroes of the story. It will get some votes, but I doubt it wins.
Next is Karama Has No Walls, a movie remarkably similar to the feature-length nominee, The Square, in that it follows the story of people involved in an Arab-Spring revolution, this time people in Yemen. What becomes clear quickly, however, is that most of the footage is from the cameras of incredibly brave young men who actually participated in the demonstrations that toppled the 33-year old Yemeni dictator, and not from the documentarian herself. Still, like with Saving Face or Strangers No More, some members may see fit to reward the subjects themselves and vote for the movie. Indeed, some of the scenes they capture are so moving, unbelievable, and evocative that they would not be an undeserving winner.
Another potential winner is Facing Fear, a story about a gay man who, by happenstance becomes acquainted in a professional setting with an ex-Neo-Nazi that was part of a gang of adolescents that had beat him almost to death over 30 years prior. The documentary focuses on both men as they journey through forgiveness (the victim’s forgiveness of the attacker, and the attacker of himself), and the importance and power of forgiveness in an individual’s life. It is another remarkable, almost unbelievable story about human emotion. However, it lacks any sense of broader human importance, nor does it represent a philanthropic-like achievement. Under the theory that at least one of the two is needed to win the Oscar, I also would not bet on this movie.
Alas we come to two key words: Holocaust and Nazis. The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life, is your likely winner. It tells the story of an inspiring woman, who is 109-years-old and lives in London, and how she survived World War II as a Czech Jew, first in Prague and then at the Theresienstadt concentration camp, with the clever use of her musical talents to entertain her captors. The story is the most uplifting, as it contains a message of hope and human redemption in the context of events much more transcendental than those told in other documentaries. At times, the message does become a bit too uplifting, for example when one survivor declares that her survival was due to her attitude and her refusal to contemplate her own death, almost insinuating unthinkable things about all the victims of the Nazis’ crimes. This is all to say that The Lady in Number 6 is by no means the runaway best of the documentaries, and by no means a clear surefire winner.
If I had to vote myself, I would vote for the one about the remarkable Yemeni protests (Karama has no Walls), but the emotional-minded Academy can normally be counted on to reward these types of stories, so I will likely mark Lady in Number 6 on my ballot on Oscar night. (Editor’s Note: Alice Herz-Sommer, the subject of The Lady in Number 6, passed away at the age of 110 on Sunday. Since the deadline for Oscar ballots is February 25th, this news may have an impact on the film’s chances. Either way, we send our condolences to her family and friends.)
With only one week left to go, in my next column I will return to where it all began: The confounding Best Picture race, and an analysis of why each front-runner can and cannot win on Oscar night. After that it will be all over but the crying, and I will circle back with my final predictions before the big night.