Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
April 2, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: The problem is that Arnold stopped appearing in action films at exactly the right time in his career, then returned to them at exactly the wrong time. When he went into politics, his appeal as a leading man was already on the wane. After enjoying a really stellar run from the late '80s through to the mid-'90s, he appeared in disappointments/flops like End of Days, The 6th Day, Jingle All The Way, and the career-and-rhyme ruining likes of Batman and Robin and Collateral Damage. Even though Terminator 3, which was his last non-cameo role before becoming Governor of California, took $150 million, it still cost $200 million and sold only about half as many tickets as Terminator 2, so even his swan song was a bit of a mixed blessing. He could still draw crowds when in a known property, but his days as someone who could draw huge crowds to an original movie were pretty much numbered, and bowing out with a film that opened at number one at the box office seemed like a good note to go out on.
Then politics didn't really work out for him, so he had to return to what he knew how to do. Even though he was only away from action films for less than a decade, that's a long time in Hollywood, and the audience largely moved on to a younger generation of action stars. It's reached the point where many younger fans probably know him more for being a tabloid fixture and largely ineffectual politician who used to be in films, rather than a genuine movie star. Considering that the biggest films he's been in since un-retirement have been The Expendables and its sequel, a series whose appeal is based pretty much solely on Gen X nostalgia, I'd say that he doesn't really mean anything to audiences now, and the one he used to mean something to isn't interested in seeing Arnie as an old man doing what he used to do in his prime because it all looks so embarrassing. It doesn't help that he's come back with projects like Sabotage, which look kind of bland and uninteresting.
The crucial mistake that Arnie made, other than leaving action films in the first place, was trying to return with original, or at least unknown, properties. If you compare his return to Stallone's marginally more successful comeback, you can see that Sly reintroduced himself by starring in sequels to Rocky and Rambo, two of his biggest franchises, and even though he's stalled in the same way that his fellow Planet Hollywood founder has, he was at least able to make a splash by reminding people what he did so well. The announcement that he will somehow figure into the forthcoming Terminator sequel/reboot suggests that Arnie has learned that his best chance to have a success is to basically play the hits, but even that has its limits. He needs to figure out a new role for himself, since people clearly aren't interested in his old schtick anymore.
Matthew Huntley: I don't think this is all that complicated of an idea to grasp: Arnold Schwarzenegger's time as an action movie star has passed. He's no longer young, buff or even respected, not after all the hoopla regarding his extra-marital affairs. It seems fitting, then, that a generically-titled movie starring Arnie would play as if he was a no-name. This is now strike three (after The Last Stand and Escape Plan) and the former Governator should just restrict himself to cameos, if that.
The real shame here is for the director, David Ayer, who earned a lot of admiration with last year's End of Watch. I haven't seen Sabotage yet, but it would have been nice if he could have followed up the former with a bigger commercial hit.
Brett Ballard-Beach: Edwin's analysis is quite comprehensive and spot-on. I would only add: this threw under last year's The Last Stand and 1986's Raw Deal leaving him that much closer to hitting his all-time worst opening (1985's Red Sonja). With things looking as grim as they are, the makers of the next Terminator film better have a helluva concept in place because relying on (or counting on) any residual goodwill for Arnie in his signature role would seem to be a losing proposition at this point.
Bruce Hall: The problem (Arnold, are you reading this? No? Well...okay then...) is Arnold himself. Nobody cares anymore, and I'm not sure it even has anything to do with whatever level of controversy might still surround him personally. He's simply reached his shelf life as an action star, and very few people are interested in watching an almost 70-year-old man pretend to beat up people one-third his age.
When you can no longer grow muscles you have to act, and the only exception to this rule is Charles Bronson.
Knowing that Arnold is returning to the Conan and Terminator franchises, and having heard some details on both projects, I'm already (biting tongue) starting to miss Jason Momoa and McG.
David Mumpower: The release of Sabotage was fascinating to me. In a way, we had an irresistible force/immovable object scenario. We have chronicled the consistent excellence of Open Road Films, the Regal Cinemas/AMC Theatres initiative. Meanwhile, the total rejection of elderly action heroes, especially Arnold Schwarzenegger, was selected by our staff as one of Top Film Industry Stories of 2013. When Open Road Films releases a Schwarzenegger movie, something has to give. In this case, the boredom with all things Governator overrode any chance for another small scale triumph for the upstart distributor. I cannot say I am surprised. Whenever I see Schwarzenegger talk (what some would call acting), I cannot help but think two things. The first is that he cheated on a beautiful woman in favor of an unattractive maid, thereby ruining not just his political career but also any lingering popularity he had. The second is that no human being should be that muscular at the age of 66. He looks every bit as fake as those who have suffered from plastic surgery mistakes. At this point, Schwarzenegger has little place in Hollywood. His time in the sun has ended.
Kim Hollis: Cesar Chavez, a Latino-targeted film directed by Diego Luna, earned $2.9 million this weekend from 664 locations. What do you think of this result?
Edwin Davies: This seems okay to me, but not as big as it could have been. Chavez is an iconic figure for the Latino community, and releasing the film so close to Cesar Chavez Day seemed like a great way of capitalizing on the connection, but I think it may have suffered from the problem that all biopics face; it might have seemed too much like homework to really break out in the way that the more lighthearted Instructions Not Included did last year, when it grossed over twice as much as Cesar Chavez on half as many screens.
Brett Ballard-Beach: It seems like this coulda and shoulda been an event pic for its targeted audience, even if only for the purposely timed opening weekend. It's possible that with this, Bad Words, Grand Budapest Hotel, and God's Not Dead all comprising a very crowded marketplace for the over 600 but under 1000 screen count club, it just wasn't able to stand out, even with an impressive cast and a known and respected actor making his directorial debut.
Bruce Hall: Had this film cracked the top ten, I would feel better about it, but a per theater average of $4,310 is definitely worth noting. We'll see how the movie does as it expands, but this could be something worth keeping an eye on.
David Mumpower: I must admit that I expected quite a bit more. The distributor of Instructions Not Included was selling an important project with name recognition. The problem with the premise is that it is a bit preachy. Whereas Pantelion Films' 2013 releases both offered tremendous entertainment value, a César Chávez comes across as more of an edutainment production. Those are by nature tougher to sell. Since the film only cost $10 million, we are certainly not talking about a box office failure of any sort. It simply will not perform as well as many of us had hoped.