Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
April 8, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Edwin Davies: This is pretty stellar, and in some ways impresses me more than the performance of Thor: The Dark World or even Iron Man 3 did last year. The original Thor did about the same as the first Captain America domestically, but outperformed it considerably overseas, so its growth was impressive, but not exactly unexpected. And Iron Man was always the most popular of The Avengers, so while the jump from a $300+ million to $400+ million domestic finish was impressive, and its expansion overseas was spectacular, it wasn't exactly unforeseen.
Captain America, I thought, had a bigger struggle on both fronts. Overseas, the fact the character has "America" in his name is a little limiting, and the period setting, while novel, seemed out of step with the rest of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. The first film was also a little straight-laced and less funny than its fellow MCU compatriots, so the character might have seemed a little less interesting as a result. We've talked a lot about the way in which The Avengers super-charged the various component parts, and I always thought that the two characters that benefitted the most from inclusion were Hulk and Captain America, the former because he didn't have to shoulder the whole film and founder a third time, and the latter because he got to be wryly funny, and because the film played on the way he felt out of step with the times and the people he was meant to be working with. Captain America 1 introduced the character, but The Avengers made him interesting.
The marketing for The Winter Soldier played up both aspects; there was plenty of solid comedy in the ads, and there was a heavy emphasis on the conspiracy/mystery elements that underlined how uncertain Cap was about his place in the world, and particularly if he has to work with an organization whose methods he actively dislikes or mistrusts. The film also added in a cool bad guy in the eponymous soldier, which helps a lot, and the presence of Black Widow and Nick Fury gave it the feel of being like a mini-Avengers (Anthony Mackie even referred to it as The Avengers 1.5 in interviews). More than the other two post-Avengers releases, this one strikes me as the one which has most improved, and I won't be surprised if it winds up out-grossing Thor: The Dark World by a substantial margin, something I wouldn't have expected back in 2011 when the God of Thunder seemed like the top non-Tony Stark member of the gang.
Matthew Huntley: In terms of its box office, the sequel's performance thus far is amazing and already bodes well for the third film in the franchise, not to mention other Marvel-related superhero movies. In fact, a friend of mine informed me the Marvel/Disney power couple already has movies slated up through 2028 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier's numbers should only support this claim. With nearly a $100 million in one weekend in April, I wouldn't be surprised if the summer movie-going season moved up by a month.
But while its numbers are impressive, I was less enthusiastic about the movie itself, which is mostly standard superhero fare (conspiracy plot that interrupts the status quo/threatens security, new characters with special abilities, etc.). Don't get me wrong--the plot and characters are interesting, and the movie is never boring, but it doesn't make for a truly awesome experience. It's very familiar territory and once again, just as I felt after Thor 2, I think we're entering a period of superhero movie, particularly Marvel superhero movie, overload. I seem to be in the minority on this, though; if most people felt this way, I doubt Captain America and friends would have made such a big statement this weekend.
Bruce Hall: It seems pretty clear that ripples from the success of The Avengers are still being felt. There's a lot of goodwill out there toward these characters, and that's a good thing because the stand-alone entries in the Marvel Universe have more often than not been less large in scale yet just as narratively unambitious as The Avengers was. But the characters remain well liked, the actors who play them are very well cast, and their individual interpretations are pleasing enough to keep people coming back for the same hero-vs-himself-vs-conspiracy story again and again.
Like it or not, Marvel has found that sweet spot where similar stories can be recycled for the same audience again and again, as long as everyone likes the individual characters enough (I wonder if that's what attracted Disney...). It's kept the comic industry alive for the better part of a century, and for those who've waited their entire lives to see this happen on the big screen, it's a wonderful time to be alive.
Personally, I'm one of those idiots who keeps hoping for something more sophisticated to come out of the Golden Age of Superhero Films. A few titles have come very close (The Dark Knight, Spider-Man 2 v1.0 and X2), but whether I live to see it or not I cannot deny - it's definitely a great time to be alive. I've got 96 million reasons why "super hero fatigue" is the least virulent affliction since "fans of Uwe Boll."
Felix Quinonez: I think this is an awesome opening for The Winter Soldier. I was hoping that it would see a similar opening to Thor: The Dark World so I am particularly impressed that it outperformed that movie. I feel that, even though I loved it, The First Avenger didn't really build a lot of buzz for Captain America. But thanks to the Avengers, I think that Cap is now entering A list territory.
Also its overseas performance is probably even more impressive. Let's not overlook the fact that in less than two weeks it has already outperformed its predecessor. If the movie has strong legs, and I believe that it will hold better than Thor 2, this could get close to $300 million domestically. And I also think that Marvel deserves even more credit for picking out the release date. If they had released this in May, they wouldn't been able to claim a "box office record." But instead they have the biggest opening of April and a whole month without any direct competition.
Jason Barney: There is no doubt this is an outstanding opening - one that on many levels meets expectations. This presents a problem for the film industry in general, but as far as Captain America, acceptance of this film, and what is happening with the Marvel movies, the sky appears to be the limit.
On a personal level, I thought Captain America had the most to gain coming out of Avengers. The first movie featuring the character was just okay in my book, although it did receive box office support. When Avengers came out, the characterization of all of superheroes was fantastic...which led to a little bit of an increased exposure to Captain America because his role as one of the leaders of the group. Couple his so-so first outing with his being involved in some of the most memorable/comic book type scenes in Avengers, the biggest film of the last few years, and fan interest was bound to grow. In the current film environment in which we live, I am not at all surprised that Captain America has achieved this type of opening, domestically and abroad. The film industry and certain weekends have become directly related to "event" status for families and movie fans, and the current Marvel slate is THE defining story developing within this framework.
This does not bode well for the industry in general, however. On a much smaller scale, films like Divergent and Noah are compared to some of these true blockbusters and there is just no way they can even come close to lofty expectations. Maybe Divergent and Noah are not the best examples, but other films have gone to theater with hopes of becoming the "next" franchise, the the results have been disasters. Lone Ranger? 47 Ronin? Pompeii? The industry is certainly picking up on the event status/appeal and it is paying off in a big way for Marvel.
I don't want to sound too negative, because I have wanted this film to be a success for some time. Of all of the characters in Avengers, Captain America's role was the most interesting to me. It is nice to see his status expanding and I fully expect the film to do well.
Kim Hollis: I continue to be impressed with how perfectly Disney has executed their Marvel strategy. A few years ago, we were wondering if people would turn out for a Thor movie, or if Captain America would ever have international appeal on his own. Now we know that in both cases the answer is yes, and the performance of these films has to be exceeding Disney's wildest dreams. I'm particularly impressed that a sequel to Captain America, a nice superhero movie that was so much of a throwback that I was never sure the character could work well as a standalone character, has just blown the original movie out of the water.
While we keep pondering possible superhero fatigue, I don't think audiences are bored of the genre yet. They do seem to be able to sense lackluster efforts, though, and these are the films that come up whenever we start talking about fatigue.
David Mumpower: What I would add is that the popularity of Captain America is refreshing in that as far as superheroes go, he is the least cynical. On multiple occasions, I have lamented how Christopher Nolan's popularity with Batman has persuaded so many wannabes to craft the darkest possible takes on iconic characters. This sequel avoided that well worn path by choosing to be celebrate the stubborn purity of Steve Rogers.
Captain America is a relic from a golden age who place in current society is tenuous at best. Despite the differences between his upbringing and his new place in history, Steve Rogers still manages to be himself, effectively earning his stripes again as he becomes the de facto leader of The Avengers. The genius of The Winter Soldier as a concept, both in the comics and in the movie, is that the one dark aspect of his past, his failure to save someone he loves, catches up with him 70 years later. In selecting this premise as the backdrop for the Captain America sequel, the character has been provided an advantage that Thor 2 and (to a lesser extent) Iron Man 3 lacked, a natural jumping off point for further character development.
Because of all the above, I am unsurprised by the explosive popularity of The Winter Soldier in North America. The overseas revenue, on the other hand, is a bit like G. I. Joe for me. Given the jingoistic nature of the subject matter, it should be a difficult property to market abroad. Somehow, the scalding pace of Captain America 2 is so dramatic that $750 million is a distinct possibility right now, maybe even a probability. I expected The Winter Soldier to do better than its predecessor overseas over the long term. I did not anticipate this kind of first round knockout, though. I believe it is fair to say that at least initially, Captain America: The Winter Soldier is a more successful project than Iron Man 3, relative to reasonable expectations.